Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, December 17 (Xiong Jiali) At 24:00 on December 17, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.

According to the analysis of many institutions, due to the impact of OPEC+'s slowing down of production growth and the positive support of the market by vaccines, international crude oil continues to rise, thus forming an expectation for domestic refined oil price adjustments.

  New Jingwei Wan Keyi in the data map

OPEC+ agrees to reduce production cuts by 500,000 barrels per day

  According to Reuters' Chinese website, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia agreed to reduce production by 500,000 barrels per day from January next year. This means that the OPEC+ alliance composed of allies such as OPEC and Russia will reduce production by 720 from January. 10,000 barrels per day, accounting for 7% of global demand, and the current reduction in production is 7.7 million barrels per day.

In this regard, Longzhong Information Li Yan analyzed that OPEC+ has reached a new version of the production reduction agreement. Although it will increase production slightly from January next year, the market is optimistic about this outlook.

  On the other hand, recently, the United Kingdom officially started large-scale vaccination of the new crown vaccine, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) also approved Pfizer and BioNTech's new crown vaccine emergency use authorization (EUA) applications.

Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Wang Xueqin said that because the vaccine has always supported the market, the price of crude oil has limited fluctuations during this pricing cycle, and the overall market has shown a high consolidation.

Affected by this, the rate of change of crude oil in this pricing cycle has always been within the positive range, and upward adjustment expectations have always existed.

  Wind data shows that starting from December 4th, Beijing time, although international oil prices have adjusted downwards, the decline is relatively small, and the overall trend is upward in shock.

In the early morning of December 16, Beijing time, the U.S. and Bursa oil rose 1.34% and 0.93% respectively.

  Jinlianchuang analyst Yang Xiaofen believes that the current promotion and use of vaccines is still the main factor affecting the trend of crude oil. In the short term, crude oil prices will continue to move sideways. Near the end of the year, the completion of the annual sales tasks of major sales companies in various regions is acceptable. , There is not much pressure on shipments. The market mostly maintains high prices and profits. In addition to the expected increase in refined oil products, the market still has enthusiasm for pushing up. It is expected that the overall market will maintain a slight upward trend.

 Oil prices may achieve the first "three consecutive rises" this year

  Many agencies predict that domestic oil prices may rise again.

Zhongyu Information estimates that at 24:00 on December 17, the domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to increase by 130 yuan/ton, and the cost of travel for car owners will also further increase.

For private cars, based on a general fuel tank capacity estimate of 50L, a full tank of 92# gasoline will cost 5 yuan more.

Wang Xueqin pointed out that if the increase is officially implemented, it will be the first "three consecutive rises" in the domestic retail price limit of refined oil products this year.

  Zhuo Chuang Information estimates that as of the closing of December 15th, the rate of change of crude oil closed at 4.48%, corresponding to an increase in the retail price limit of gasoline and diesel by 140 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to 92# gasoline, an increase of 0.11 yuan, and 0# diesel. 0.12 yuan.

Meng Peng, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, pointed out that the price limit increase this time is a certainty.

  According to Longzhong Information, it is estimated that on December 17, the domestic refined oil price adjustment corresponds to a theoretical increase of about 145 yuan/ton.

  According to statistics from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, there have been 23 rounds of domestic refined oil price adjustments in 2020. Specifically, the price adjustments were 6 times, 5 times, and 12 times.

Among them, the 6 rounds of price adjustments from March 31 to June 11, due to the linking of crude oil prices below the floor price of 40 US dollars per barrel, domestic refined oil price adjustments have been stranded continuously.

At 24:00 on June 28, domestic oil prices rose for the first time this year.

At 24:00 on December 3, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 250 yuan and 240 yuan per ton respectively, achieving the largest increase in the year.

If this price adjustment is expected to be fulfilled, the domestic refined oil price adjustment in 2020 will show a pattern of "7 up, 5 down, 12 stranded".

  According to the principle of “ten working days”, the next round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on December 31. Wang Tao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that he expects another increase in the last round of price adjustment policies in 2020. The momentum may have narrowed, as the momentum of crude oil is declining recently.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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