Insee, illustration -
THOMAS SAMSON / AFP
If the coronavirus crisis continues, the French economy should recover well during the first half of 2021, but the pace of the recovery will remain suspended to the evolution of the health situation, warned Insee, in a note from situation published this Tuesday.
The National Institute of Statistics sees 2021 as "the time for remedies" for the economy, with the prospect of a gradual deployment of the vaccine and the effects of the recovery plan.
Very marked sectoral contrasts
It thus forecasts a rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) of 3% in the first quarter, then an increase of another 2% in the second, under the assumption of a "gradual stabilization of the health situation".
By mid-2021, for example, the economy would have caught up with much of the record drop estimated at 9% this year, but activity would still remain around 3% below its pre-crisis level.
INSEE does not yet publish an annual forecast, unlike the Banque de France which anticipates growth of 5% next year, when the government expects 6%.
This global recovery masks, "as since the beginning of the crisis, sectoral contrasts which are very marked", underlined Julien Pouget, head of the economic department of INSEE, during a press conference.
The sectors which are already the most affected will remain "the most likely to be affected if the health situation deteriorates again" and it is necessary to extend the existing restrictions or apply new ones during 2021, he adds.
A surge in consumption for "Black Friday"
These are hotels and restaurants, household services which include in particular cultural and leisure activities, transport services and the manufacture of transport equipment, in particular for aeronautics.
This represents 10% of French GDP, recalls Insee.
For these sectors, the end of 2020, marked by the second wave of the epidemic and a new confinement, was again very penalizing.
In total, GDP is expected to fall back 4% in the last quarter, after its strong rebound of 18.7% in the third quarter - which itself followed a historic plunge of 13.8% in the second.
Household consumption is expected to decline by 7% in 2019. Here again, the strong recovery in the third quarter was followed by a further contraction in the fourth (-6%), despite the reopening. shops since November 28.
Data from bank card transactions also show a surge on December 4, the day of the “Black Friday” promotional operation, with physical sales having returned to their pre-crisis level.
The evolution of unemployment in "trompe l'oeil"
Over the year as a whole, however, households have been cautious, with a savings rate expected to reach a record high of 21%, compared to around 15% in recent years.
This see-saw year should result in the net destruction of 691,000 jobs (including 600,000 salaried jobs), anticipates INSEE, including 301,000 in the last quarter alone.
A considerable annual forecast, but revised downwards since the previous one published in October, due to a third quarter more dynamic than expected.
This represents a 2% drop in salaried employment in 2020, well below the contraction in GDP, notes INSEE, thanks to protective measures taken by the government, such as partial unemployment which has so far enabled companies to limit job cuts.
At the end of 2020, the unemployment rate should thus stand at 8%, against 9% at the end of the third quarter.
A trompe l'oeil development: some unemployed people fall outside the statistical field of unemployment because they can no longer look for work.
At the same time, the “halo” around unemployment should increase sharply.
This term refers to people who are unemployed and want to work, but who are not actively looking because of the crisis or because they cannot work for health reasons.
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