In a business report published on Tuesday, INSEE estimates that the French economy should rebound by 3% in the first quarter of 2021, then grow by 2% in the second.

But the pace of this recovery will always depend on the evolution of health restrictions, warns the institute.

The French economy is expected to rebound by 3% in the first quarter of 2021, then grow by 2% in the second, but the pace of this recovery will still depend on the evolution of health restrictions, INSEE estimated on Tuesday in its new economic report. .

After a record 9% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) expected this year, the "risk of a new epidemic runaway" will continue to weigh on the sectors "most likely to be constrained" by new restrictions. next year, warns the National Institute of Statistics.

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Coronavirus: follow the evolution of the situation Tuesday, December 15

A relapse of 4% of GDP in the last quarter

The situation at the end of 2020 illustrates this immediate cause and effect relationship: the November curfews and confinement decided to fight the second wave of the epidemic should lead to a relapse of 4% of GDP in the last quarter.

At the same time, INSEE anticipates 301,000 net job losses over the period.

In total for 2020 as a whole, 691,000 net jobs would be lost (including 600,000 salaried jobs), a figure significantly lowered compared to the previous forecast for October, due to a better third quarter.

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8% unemployment at the end of 2020

At the end of 2020, the unemployment rate would thus finally settle at 8%, against 9% at the end of the third quarter.

A trompe l'oeil development since some of the unemployed are falling outside the statistical field because they can no longer look for work.

For 2021, INSEE does not reveal an annual forecast, but makes the assumption of a "gradual stabilization of the health situation", which would therefore allow a return in the middle of the year to 3% below the level of activity before the crisis.

He is banking in particular on the rise of vaccination against Covid-19 and on the beneficial effects of the national recovery plan and those put in place among our European neighbors.

But the recovery will be marked by very contrasting developments between the business sectors.

Those who are currently most affected (accommodation, catering, household services, transport services and manufacture of transport equipment) would remain well below their 2019 level. Still with the "sword of Damocles" of further restrictions if the he epidemic resumed in early 2021, when these sectors account for around 10% of French GDP.