<Anchor>
Reporter Kwon Ae-ri is here.
Reporter Kwon, the road we haven't been to yet, the story of the 3rd step of distance keeps coming up. If we go to the 3rd step, what is the economic impact?
<Reporter>
Yes, of course, Corona 19 has a lot of influences besides the economy, but it is time to talk about the economy, so let's focus on it.
Following Seoul, Busan also entered phase 2.5.
Step 2.5 alone is very difficult, but in the short term, it will be difficult to avoid a bigger shock.
The Bank of Korea published a report last week looking at the economic situation in and outside the country from August to November.
It is diagnosed that private consumption will decrease by 16.6% compared to the state where the distance-distance stage has not been carried out at all, and Korea's gross product will decrease by 8%.
The economic impact of distancing is seen as relatively insignificant at the first stage, but it starts to appear visible in the second stage, and the shock increases significantly from the 2.5 stage.
And if you go to step 3, you'll have a big shock, where the graph breaks sharply as you can see right now.
The Bank of Korea believes that Korea's total output will be reduced by 1.1% this year, but it will recover 3% growth next year.
It is also predicted that if the corona spread does not stop as it is, the growth rate will be only 2.2% next year.
<Anchor>
However, this distance-taking step keeps rising, but the number of confirmed cases does not decrease, but increases gradually. In this way, it is better to be healed after being beaten hard for 2-3 weeks.
Economically, it's rather better. Is there a story like this?
<Reporter>
Yes, in the long run, once we focus on quarantine, such a voice comes out that in the long run, we can expect a recovery in the real economy only by stopping Corona 19.
Without breaking the proliferation trend, it is highly likely that a small blow will occur even when looking at the economy alone.
Earlier this month, the OECD predicted that Korea will be the most economically recovering country from corona among OECD member countries in two years.
This, too, is an analysis that came under the premise that we would stop the fashion at the pre-third spread.
However, in the coronavirus phase, some countries outside the OECD have achieved remarkable results in quarantine.
Representatively, Taiwan and Taiwan are non-OECD countries, so they were not analyzed together in the OECD outlook earlier this month.
It is one of the most quarantined in the world, with no death in the second half of this corona crisis.
Taiwan has made strict quarantine regulations, and if it is not followed, it has implemented a strong measure of fines tens of millions of won.
In particular, it is considered one of the countries with the strongest immigration control during the early coronavirus outbreak.
Taiwan is one of the few countries in the world that is expected to see positive growth this year as a result, and the outlook for next year is relatively bright.
<Anchor>
Even during the Spanish flu in the early 20th century, where Corona 19 and Corona 19 are so much compared, strong quarantine was ultimately more economically beneficial in the long run.
<Reporter>
Yes, there is a paper published in the second quarter of this year by the Federal Reserve Board of America's central banking institution and researchers at MIT Business School.
When I looked at the cities of the United States at the time of the Spanish flu according to the level of quarantine, it was found that during the period of the Spanish flu flu, the cities that strengthened their distance and those that did not have the same economic damage were similar.
Although the city's hit harder to distancing was a bit bigger, there is usually no difference as you can see in the table now.
In the long run, however, in cities that were rather strict distanced, there was a trend in which the level of employment in the manufacturing sector improved relatively more steadily.
However, there is a difference between then and now that the size of the economy is different and the level of medical care is different, and in particular, the mortality rate of the Spanish flu was higher than that of Corona 19, and there were more young deaths.
In other words, at the time, the effects of not properly distancing were more lethal.
However, even taking that into account, the analysis of the people who conducted this study suggests that proper quarantine, implemented at the right time, can be a plus for the economy in the long run.
As the economic blockade caused by the corona is prolonged, in fact, it is true that it is wrong because of infection or not being able to make a meal abroad, and even protests where such heartbreaking screams appeared.
However, it is clear that the economy will eventually survive when the corona is caught.
It is that quarantine and economy are not necessarily aims in the opposite direction.
Our current level of quarantine is by no means low, but if the spread does not continue to break, it seems necessary to think about upgrading the level or to devise additional devices that can keep the current level more thoroughly.