Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, December 15th (Dong Xiangyi) Recently, cold waves hit many places and the property market has cooled down!

  According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 14th, the price increase in the real estate market of 70 large and medium-sized cities was generally stable, with a slight decline.

The price of new houses in 36 cities rose month-on-month, while that of 28 cities fell, the highest number of declines this year.

Analysts believe that in November, the housing prices in the first, second and third tier cities have fallen or remained flat, while the Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the core second and third tier cities have high housing prices.

The cooling trend of the property market is related to factors such as regulatory upgrades and real estate sales promotion. The new round of regulatory policies is expected to continue to upgrade in the future.

  In 2020, house prices will show a trend of high first and then low throughout the year.

Some experts pointed out that the price of 70 cities announced in November has released four signals. One is that housing prices have reached the bottom; the other is that some cities have tightened regulation and overweight; and the third is that the rise and fall of cities are distinct, and differentiation is the future. The main theme of the second, third, and fourth-tier cities; fourth is the currency release, and the turning point of buying a house has come.

   New latitude and longitude in the data map

Property market cooling

Only 36 cities in 70 cities have housing prices rising

  On the 14th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November. The chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, Sheng Guoqing, said that preliminary estimates indicate that in November, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing in 4 first-tier cities increased month-on-month. 0.2%, the increase was 0.1% lower than the previous month.

Among them, Beijing fell by 0.1%, Shanghai and Shenzhen were flat, and Guangzhou rose by 0.9%.

The sales price of second-hand housing rose 0.5% month-on-month, the same rate as last month.

Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 0.3%, 0.8% and 0.6% respectively.

  The sales price of newly built commercial housing in 31 second-tier cities increased by 0.1% month-on-month, the same rate as last month; the sales price of second-hand housing increased by 0.1% month-on-month, and the rate of increase fell 0.1% from the previous month.

The sales price of newly built commercial housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing rose by 0.2% month-on-month, the same as the previous month.

    Source: National Bureau of Statistics website

  Based on simple arithmetic calculations, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities across the country rose 0.1% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year in November.

  Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei, "The price increase data of 70 cities has narrowed for 3 consecutive months, and the year-on-year increase has narrowed for 5 consecutive months, which fully illustrates the trend of cooling of the price increase."

  "In November 70 cities, 36 cities saw new house prices rise, which is the lowest value since the epidemic. Second-hand housing prices rose in 44 cities, basically the same." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that in 2020, it will be “Golden Nine Silver Ten "It has passed. After the property market surged from July to August, the overall property market began to show a significant slowdown in growth from September to November.

  Why has the property market cooled down?

Zhang Dawei believes that, first of all, the regulatory policies continue to upgrade. Since the second half of the year, 32 cities have tightened their property market policies. Although the intensity varies, they are all tightened.

The impact on the market, especially the impact on newly-built residential buildings, has gradually emerged. The price-limiting policies for newly-built residential buildings in many cities have affected the price of newly-built residential buildings.

Therefore, the housing market data gradually slowed down.

  Secondly, the market supply has increased, and most companies have rushed to increase supply at the end of the year, and some companies have also seen sales promotion.

  Yan Yuejin also pointed out, "The cooling trend of the property market is related to the overall market environment this year. In particular, real estate companies will also consciously cut prices in order to speed up the completion of the annual sales work. In addition, some cities such as Xi'an and Ningbo have tightened policies. It shows that by the end of the year, the work of stabilizing housing prices is still urgent, and all regions will control high-priced projects."

  It is worth noting that Jining has become the city with the fastest increase in housing prices this time, and it is also the only city with an increase of more than 1%.

Yan Yuejin believes that the rise in housing prices in such cities is related to urban planning.

Especially the urban high-speed railways in southwestern Shandong are well planned, and the property market is also easy to rise.

Second-hand housing prices rose slightly

Guangzhou becomes the leader

  In terms of second-hand housing, the sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 cities across the country increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year in November.

Yan Yuejin pointed out that, corresponding to the data of first-hand housing, the relative cooling of second-hand housing will be less in the near future, at least there has not been an overly obvious narrowing of the increase.

  Due to the price control policy of price restriction and visa restriction for first-hand housing, the price of second-hand housing is more real.

In November, second-hand housing prices in Guangzhou, Hefei, Xuzhou, Shenzhen, and Beijing ranked among the top five month-on-month increases. Among them, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Beijing rose by 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.5% respectively.

Zhang Dawei believes that these cities are basically cities that have been significantly suppressed in the previous regulation. Recently, under the influence of rising national hot cities including Shenzhen, housing prices have stabilized.

  "Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities are at the forefront of housing prices. The core reason is that the economic recovery in the Greater Bay Area is relatively good, and the investment attributes are relatively high. The control policies implemented in various regions have not yet restrained the market from heating up." He believes that with the above The rise of urban housing prices has accelerated, and the new round of control policies is expected to continue to upgrade.

The rising trend of housing prices in most cities remains unchanged, but the increase will continue to slow down.

  Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

Can you buy the bottom?

Four signs of housing prices appear!

  Xie Yifeng, a well-known real estate expert and president of the China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, believes that in November 70 city housing prices released four signals, one of which is that housing prices have reached the bottom.

The second is the tightening of regulation and overweight in some cities.

The third is that cities are up and down clearly, and differentiation is the main theme of the future tier 1, 2, 3, and 4 cities.

The fourth is the currency release, and the turning point of buying a house has come.

  However, Xie Yifeng emphasized that due to price restrictions and visa restrictions, the decline in house prices does not mean that house prices have fallen, but the rate of increase has slowed.

In addition, due to the lag of online signing, the index of house prices has been detached from the market due to slow data updates.

The property market was regulated up to 458 times during the year

Expert: Housing prices continue to slow down at the end of the year

  Statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that the cumulative number of national real estate adjustments in November was 33, and the number of national real estate adjustments from January to November was as high as 458.

  Beginning in July, the trend of regulatory policies has changed. From the full easing in the first half of the year, there has been a tightening trend, and restraining market overheating has become a new feature of regulatory policies.

Specifically, in November, Taizhou and other cities upgraded their regulatory policies.

Since July, 30 cities including Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Inner Mongolia, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Changchun, and Haikou have introduced regulatory policies to cool the property market.

  However, in Zhang Dawei's view, although the tightening of regulatory policies in various places in November is not strong, it still represents the trend of real estate regulation and control. One city and one policy. Housing and housing are not speculated. To maintain the stability of the real estate market, as long as the increase is too fast, it will be inevitable. Will lead to escalation of regulation.

  Will house prices rise or fall at the end of the year?

Zhang Dawei said, "The property market control policies are basically based on'stabilizing' the property market. Although some cities have seen policies to stimulate the market have been withdrawn, the impact on the market has not fully changed. It is expected that house prices will continue to rise in December, but the growth rate will slow down. , The tightening control policies are expected to stabilize the market."

   New latitude and longitude in the data map

  Yan Yuejin told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that December is a critical period for real estate companies to speed up their sales targets, and various promotional activities are expected.

Moreover, local governments are actively implementing house price control, and it is expected that there will be control over housing transaction order in the near future.

All this shows that there is not much room for a rebound in house prices in the short term, and the overall trend is to narrow the increase.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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