Decrypt the latest A-share layout intentions of four types of institutions, technology and consumption are still the top priorities
After more than five months of repeated volatility, the A-share market has quietly entered mid-December, and 2020 is approaching its end. Investors have quietly begun their layout for the next spring market.
Institutions are also busy with the layout of the coming year.
Statistics show that since entering the fourth quarter, funds, securities firms, insurance and QFII have begun frequent investigations of listed companies, and the investigated companies involve all Shenwan first-tier industries.
Institutional surveys initially show that technology and consumption are still key areas in the latest layout intentions of the four major institutions.
At present, under the background of "accelerating the formation of a new development pattern with domestic and international double cycles as the main body", in the process of accelerating economic recovery, why technology and consumption will become a good track recognized by many institutions? Listed companies have received the focus of institutional attention. What is the logic of the institutional layout?
Here, the "Securities Daily" gives a detailed interpretation of the investigations of the four major institutions since the fourth quarter.
The fund visited 552 listed companies
4 companies that have won more than one hundred institutions
With the rapid expansion of the hot equity fund camp, the research footprint of fund managers has also attracted investors' attention.
"With the arrival of the fourth quarter, major fund companies are beginning to prepare for next year's layout." Li Shixian, director of the investment research department of Banyan Tree, said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily" that the market may continue its structural rise next year.
Among them, the three major areas of consumption, medicine and technology are still the focus of the fund.
The "Securities Daily" reporter found out after the statistics of Flush that since the fourth quarter, as of December 11, a total of 552 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have received intensive investigations by fund companies.
Among them, 4 companies including Goertek, New Industries, New Clean Energy, and Mindray Medical have received the top number of fund companies participating in the survey during the period, all exceeding 100, 179, 131, 103 and 103 respectively. .
Followed by companies such as Changchun High-tech, Hikvision, Inovance Technology, Weining Health, Transsion Holdings, Gigabit, Zhaoyi Innovation, China Test Testing, Yizumi, Glodon, etc., received funds during the period. The number of company investigators exceeds 70, accounting for more than 20%.
From the perspective of Shenwan's first-tier industry distribution, the 552 companies that have been investigated by fund companies since the fourth quarter are mainly clustered in five major industries, including electronics, medical and biological, mechanical equipment, chemical and computer industries, involving 80, 63, and 50, 50 and 47.
Technology stocks represented by electronics and computers have a total of 127 stocks, which have become areas of focus for the fund.
At the time of intensive research and visits of fund companies, there are already institutions in advance.
Statistics show that among the 552 A-share listed companies surveyed above, as of the third quarter of this year, 461 companies have appeared in the top ten shareholders of tradable shares, accounting for 83.5%.
Under the high attention of the fund, the market performance of the above-mentioned stocks is also remarkable.
Statistics show that since the fourth quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 4.01%.
Among the 552 stocks mentioned above, 206 stocks outperformed the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index during the same period, accounting for nearly 40%.
Among them, 5 stocks such as Xinjieneng, Leonwei, Langzi, Hegang Resources, *ST Rongjie, etc., the cumulative increase during the period exceeded 100%.
"The key research direction of fund companies often represents the next core layout direction of the market." Ma Cheng, chairman of Juze Investment, told the reporter of "Securities Daily" that the current fund conducts research in the electronics, medical and biological, mechanical equipment, chemical and computer industries. The key visits show that the Fund is very optimistic about the pro-cyclical sector in the post-epidemic era next year.
Recently, good news about the progress of vaccine research and development has continued. European and American countries are expected to complete vaccination before June next year.
This means that the expected strong global economic recovery next year will surely drive demand and promote the full recovery of the electronics, mechanical equipment, and chemical industry chains.
In addition, affected by the epidemic this year, the global demand for online office, computer, and cloud services has greatly increased, and 5G has begun to enter the application scenario stage. It is expected that the computer field will have considerable room for development in the future.
What is the trend of A shares next year?
Qin Hong, an analyst at Jinbailin Consulting, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that in the current A-share market, the voice of institutional investors continues to increase, coupled with the huge changes in the capital structure and the speed of IPOs. Taking into account the realistic requirements of my country's economy facing industrial transformation and economic upgrading, it is expected that marginal stocks and underperforming stocks will continue to weaken in the future.
However, sunrise industries and growth industries that can continue to create incremental value and incremental profits are on the contrary, and their leading stocks are expected to continue to fluctuate and rise.
In addition, these industry leading stocks are often the constituent stocks of several major A-share indexes and popular stocks in the market. The strength of such stocks will undoubtedly drive the index to rise.
Wanlian Securities analysis believes that the game of A-share stock funds will intensify at the end of the year. Considering the relatively tight liquidity at the end of the year, it is expected that the short-term market may continue to fluctuate and adjust. Therefore, it is optimistic about defensive sectors, such as food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and big finance.
In terms of industry configuration, there are three main lines to focus on: one is the low-valued banks, insurance and other large financial stocks, and the large blue chip stocks in the transportation industry; the second is to focus on non-ferrous metals, chemicals, automobiles and other procyclical industries; the third is to focus on numbers The sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan including currency, semiconductors, new energy and high-end equipment.
Brokerage surveyed 680 listed companies
Highlight the five investment logic
"The reason why securities firm research has attracted market attention is that the securities research department of the securities firm is the most mainstream seller securities research institution in China, and they firmly control the right to speak in the market through research reports. At the same time, the research reports of securities firms are almost all institutional investors. It is an important source of decision-making information, so it can affect the investment direction of the market to a large extent." Dongtuo Investment Fund Manager Wang Chunxiu said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily.
Driven by the anticipation of the new year's quotation and the annual report, the demand for stock exchanges by brokerages is increasing.
The "Securities Daily" reporter found after statistics on flush flush data, since the fourth quarter, as of December 11, brokerage firms have investigated a total of 680 A-share listed companies, becoming the main force in institutional research on A-shares.
Private equity ranking researcher Mo Jing said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that the trend of institutional research led by securities firms has attracted more and more attention from the market. On the one hand, it stems from the increase in the proportion of A-share market institutional funds in the market; On the other hand, due to the advancement of capital market reforms, the value investment philosophy held by securities firms and other institutions has become increasingly effective in the A-share market.
Specifically, since the fourth quarter, 158 A-share listed companies have received 10 or more brokerage investigators.
Among them, GoerTek has the largest number of merchants receiving research coupons, reaching 62.
Followed by Zhongke Chuangda, the number of merchants receiving research coupons reached 60.
The number of merchants receiving research coupons from Weining Health and New Industries also exceeded 50, reaching 59 and 53 respectively.
In addition, Amic, Glodon, Hikvision, Inovance Technology, Mindray Medical, Zhaoyi Innovation, Huayu Software, New Clean Energy, Semir Apparel, Venus Star, Gigabit, BOE A and other listed companies receive research coupon merchants The number also exceeds 40.
Wang Chunxiu told the "Securities Daily" reporter that these industries or companies that have been intensively investigated are all institutional stocks or potential stocks, so they have high research value.
According to the research report of the brokerage firm, the stocks with real investment value are selected to construct the stock pool. After careful research and understanding of the investment logic, it is a safe choice to build a position when the price drops below the investment value.
After further sorting out, the reporter found that the 680 A-share listed companies surveyed by securities firms mainly showed five major characteristics: First, the stock price was relatively low.
As of December 11, the average price of all A-share listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was 22.87 yuan; among the above-mentioned 680 listed companies, 367 companies had their latest closing prices lower than the average price, accounting for 53.97%.
Among them, the latest closing price of 41 stocks was less than 5 yuan.
Second, the stock price adjustment is relatively adequate.
Since the fourth quarter, as of December 11, among the 680 stocks mentioned above, a total of 351 stocks fell during the period, accounting for 51.62%.
Among them, 12 stocks fell more than 30% during the cumulative period.
Third, the valuation is relatively low.
Among the above-mentioned 680 stocks, after excluding loss-making stocks, a total of 554 stocks have newest price-earnings ratios lower than the industry average, accounting for more than 80%.
Among them, Nanning Sugar, Dongfang Jinggong, Rongan Real Estate, Overseas Chinese Town A and other stocks latest dynamic price-earnings ratio is less than 5 times.
Fourth, the performance growth is determined.
As of the close of the market on December 11, a total of 83 listed companies have disclosed their annual report performance forecasts, and the number of companies with good performance has reached 51, accounting for 61.45%.
Among them, the net profit of 24 companies in 2020 is expected to double year-on-year. Companies such as Tianci Materials, Haixin Food, AutoNavi, Lege, Doublestar New Materials, Dabeinong, and Yahua Group are expected to increase their net profit by 300 % And above.
Cai Fangyuan, an analyst at China Galaxy Securities, believes that the current upward momentum has shifted from being driven by liquidity to driven by fundamentals, and the game of stock funds has led to a rapid rotation of hot spots.
Performance is still an important support for the future long-term layout. The end of the year and the beginning of the year are usually the best time for the layout of high-quality white horse stocks.
Fifth, the 680 stocks in the first-level industry classification of the Shenwan Group are grouped together in the three major fields of electronics, machinery and equipment, and medicine and biology. The three major industries have selected 89 stocks, 70 stocks and 79 stocks respectively.
Mo Jing said that the current market performance is king, and companies with high performance growth, high growth certainty, and the industry is in a high business cycle or booming business cycle are more likely to be favored by brokers.
Insurance company surveys 337 listed companies
Over 70% of revenue growth in the first three quarters
Since the fourth quarter, as of the close of December 11, insurance companies have investigated a total of 337 A-share listed companies.
From the perspective of the industry distribution of listed companies, the listed companies surveyed by insured companies are mainly concentrated in five major industries, namely the electronics industry (49), the medical and biological industry (45), the computer industry (37), and the mechanical equipment industry ( 25), the chemical industry (24), in the 337 listed companies surveyed by insured companies, the total accounted for over 50%.
Judging from the number of surveys conducted by insured companies, since the fourth quarter, insurance companies have conducted a total of 1,556 surveys.
Eleven companies have been surveyed by insurance companies over 20 times. They are Mindray Medical, Goertek, New Industries, Inovance Technology, Amic, Hikvision, New Clean Energy, Gigabit, Changchun High-tech, Zhaoyi Innovation and Meiya Pico.
Among them, Mindray Medical received the most surveys by insurance companies, reaching 44 times.
GoerTek shares second place and has been surveyed 42 times by insurance companies.
In this regard, Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, who was interviewed by a reporter from Securities Daily, said that the more surveys, the higher the interest of insurance companies in the electronics, medical and biological, and computer industries.
Insurance funds are long-term funds. The characteristics of the industry determine that the safety and liquidity of funds will be important considerations in the investment of insurance funds.
Insurance capital investment has the characteristics of focusing on fundamentals, value investment, and long-term investment. Therefore, the selected targets are often top companies with more outstanding liquidity.
The mid- to long-term growth potential of the technological innovation sectors such as electronics, medical biology, and computers are outstanding, and they are attractive to institutional funds including insurance companies.
In addition, the technological innovation industry has the characteristics of large performance flexibility and high professional requirements, so it has become a key research area of the organization.
To be favored by insurance institutions is naturally inseparable from the outstanding performance of listed companies.
The 2020 third quarter report shows that among the listed companies surveyed by insurance companies, more than 70% of the companies achieved year-on-year growth in their operating income in the first three quarters, and more than 60% of the companies achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit in the first three quarters.
From the perspective of annual report performance forecasts, as of December 11, 43 listed companies surveyed by insured companies have taken the lead in disclosing 2020 annual report performance forecasts, and 30 companies have predicted their performance, accounting for nearly 70%.
Among them, there are 21 companies with pre-increasing performance, 4 companies with slightly increased performance, 4 companies with performance turning around, and 1 company with continued performance.
It is worth noting that 18 companies are expected to double their net profit year-on-year in 2020.
Among them, four companies, including Tianci Materials, Lege, Dabeinong, and Yahua Group, are expected to increase their net profit by more than three times year-on-year.
From the perspective of market value, as of the close of December 11, the average market value of 337 listed companies surveyed by insured companies was 32.394 billion yuan, and 20 listed companies with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan were investigated by insured companies.
Among them, the company with the highest market value investigated by the insured company was Midea Group, which reached 590.174 billion yuan.
Followed by Mindray Medical and Hikvision, which have a market value of more than 400 billion yuan.
"Insurance funds have the characteristics of large capital, long investment cycles, highly diversified shareholdings, low expected returns, and risk aversion. Therefore, they tend to pursue long-term stable returns and follow the value investment stock selection system. Therefore, insurance funds are in stock selection. The top preference is for blue chip stocks with good liquidity, high dividend yield, strong profitability, large circulation, and definite performance. The long-term investment value of these stocks is very certain, and can be used as an important reference target for long-term investment to stably obtain corporate growth and profitability. Return on investment." Liu Youhua, a senior researcher at the private equity ranking network, told a reporter from the Securities Daily.
The overall stock prices of listed companies surveyed by insured institutions in the secondary market are also good.
Statistics show that since the fourth quarter, as of the close of December 11, the stock prices of 172 listed companies have risen, accounting for more than 50% of the total number of listed companies surveyed by insured companies, and nearly 40% of stocks have outperformed the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index over the same period ( 4.01%).
Among them, the four stocks of Xinjie Energy, Leonwei, Langzi, and Yongxing Materials have all increased by more than 90%.
QFII surveyed 135 listed companies
Technology stocks are the focus area
"Overseas bad news is gradually digested, and market risk appetite continues to be restored, which has become the core driver of the recent acceleration of foreign investment." Guosheng Securities' strategy team told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "Beijing capital has continued to flow back since November, following a record After the single-month net inflow of the year reached a new high, the net inflow of funds from Beijing has continued to expand since December, with a total inflow of more than 30 billion yuan. Continue to be optimistic about the new year's market from now to the first quarter of next year."
As the investment sentiment of the northward funds continues to pick up, foreign investors are also very enthusiastic about A-share research in the near future. Obviously, they are preparing for the "spring market" next year.
The "Securities Daily" reporter found out after the Flush data statistics that since the fourth quarter, a total of 135 A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have received intensive QFII investigations.
Among them, 5 companies including Mindray Medical, Glodon, Hikvision, GoerTek, and New Industries ranked the top in the number of institutions that received the survey during the period, all exceeding 10.
In terms of industries, the 135 companies surveyed by QFII since the above-mentioned four quarters are mainly concentrated in the four major industries of electronics, medicine and biology, computers, and chemicals, involving 30, 18, 17, and 11 individual stocks respectively.
On the whole, science and technology stocks represented by electronics and computers are still the top priority of foreign investment in the fourth quarter. The procyclical sector represented by chemical industry has also become a key target of frequent foreign investment research.
Liu Youhua, a senior researcher in the private equity ranking network interviewed by a reporter from Securities Daily, said: “Technology is an industry strongly supported by national policies and a high-quality track that is worthy of long-term optimism. However, since the second half of this year, the adjustment range of technology stocks has been relatively large. The stock price trend of some stocks continues to be sluggish. Therefore, the follow-up stock selection needs to be more refined. Judging from the current capital flow and the stock price trend of some stocks, there is a higher probability of structural spring market. For investors, QFII The types of key surveys generally have little fundamental problems. If judged and selected based on the data of the top ten shareholders of individual stocks, it may be a good investment method."
The 135 A-shares that have been investigated by QFII since the fourth quarter mentioned above have also been very active in their recent share prices.
Among them, 87 stocks rose during the period, accounting for more than 60%.
During the period, the cumulative gains of two stocks such as Xinjieneng and Leonwei reached 534.19% and 392.85% respectively; the cumulative gains of Amic, Siripu, Tianci Materials, Yanghe shares, and Zhuoshengwei during the period also exceeded 50% .
The annual report performance is expected to be better or an important basis for frequent QFII surveys in the fourth quarter.
As of the close of December 11, among the 135 A-share companies that have been investigated by QFII since the above-mentioned four quarters, 21 companies have taken the lead in disclosing 2020 annual report performance forecasts. There are 15 companies with good performance, accounting for more than 70%.
Among them, five companies, including Tianci Materials, Dabeinong, BYD, Inovance Technology, and Goertek, are expected to double their net profit in 2020 year-on-year.
Based on the above-mentioned QFII survey of A-share companies, Zhang Xia, chief strategist of China Merchants Securities, told a reporter from Securities Daily: “The momentum and trend of continued inflow of foreign capital are still there. First, the recent Federal Reserve’s statement shows that it will continue to The provision of liquidity support and the market’s increased expectations of the Fed’s easing policy will help boost global market risk appetite. Second, the continuous improvement of the domestic economy and its global dominance has strengthened RMB assets’ foreign investment Attractiveness. Third, the inclusion of sci-tech innovation board stocks in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has continued to advance, and substantial progress has been made recently. Some sci-tech innovation board stocks have been transferred to core indexes such as SSE 180 and SSE 380, and are expected to be included in the Mainland Stock Connect early next year. A source of future foreign capital increase. Fourth, from the performance of the year-end of the past year, the northward funds usually lay out the new year's market. There should be no surprises this year. The northward funds are expected to continue to flow in the future."
Most brokerage firms predict that with the improvement of market risk appetite, foreign capital inflows are expected to reach 300 billion yuan in 2021.
Guotai Junan Securities believes that the risk environment in 2021 will be eased to a large extent. With the landing of overseas risk uncertainty, rising market risk appetite and the clear trend of global economic recovery, it is expected that overseas investors will allocate A shares in 2021 compared to 2020. It is expected to increase, and the net inflow of funds from Beijing to the north is around 300 billion yuan.
Guosheng Securities’ strategy team also stated that the continued fundamental advantages brought about by China’s anti-epidemic results, the expected continuous appreciation of the renminbi, and the improvement of the external environment, are all conducive to the increase of transactional foreign investment. Trading in 2021 is expected Return to net inflow.
It is conservatively estimated that the increase in foreign investment in 2021 will reach 200-300 billion yuan.
Haitong Securities also believes that, boosted by multiple factors such as overseas economic recovery, foreign capital inflows are expected to accelerate slightly in 2021.