At the auction on Thursday, December 10, the Mosbirzh index updated its historical maximum.
The stock indicator rose 1.5% and for the first time since 1997, it exceeded 3258 points.
Note that the previous record (3226 points) was set back in January 2020.
Meanwhile, since February, amid the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse in the global stock market, the Moscow Exchange index has shown a sharp drop.
The lowest value was reached on March 19 and amounted to 2073 points.
After that, the indicator began to gradually recover.
According to experts, the growth of the Russian stock market and foreign trading floors accelerated noticeably in late autumn.
Investors have reacted positively to reports of trials and registrations of coronavirus vaccines, analysts said.
“Now the talk is no longer about the level of effectiveness of vaccines, but about their actual use and the scale of purchases.
This point is very positively received by the markets.
As soon as an effective and relatively inexpensive vaccine appears, this will make it possible to start lifting quarantine restrictions and launch the global economy at full capacity, "Alexey Korenev, an analyst at Finam Group, explained in an interview with RT.
On December 5, a large-scale vaccination against COVID-19 began in Russia.
The first vaccination centers were opened in Moscow, and the supply of the drug to all regions of the country will begin after December 10.
This was previously stated by the Minister of Health Mikhail Murashko.
In addition, on December 8, vaccination of the population began in the UK.
A health worker injects the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine at the COVID-19 vaccination station in the city polyclinic No. 191, the head institution of the outpatient center of the State Budgetary Healthcare Institution "GP No. 191 of the Moscow Department of Health"
RIA News
© Ilya Pitalev
According to Aleksey Korenev, the results of negotiations on the OPEC + agreement became an additional stimulus for the Russian stock market.
On December 3, the countries participating in the oil production limitation deal revised the terms of the contract.
So, from January 1, 2021, the states - exporters of raw materials will increase hydrocarbon production not by 2 million barrels per day, as planned earlier, but only by 500 thousand barrels per day.
As a result, the growth in global oil supply will be weaker than investors expected.
Against this background, on December 10, commodity quotes renewed their six-month maximum, exceeding $ 50 per barrel, and thereby supported the Russian currency and the securities market.
“For Russia, this is doubly positive, since we have a significant part of the budget, almost a third, formed through the sale of energy resources,” Korenev added.
In search of profitability
The record inflow of private investors to the stock exchange also played in favor of the Russian stock market.
Ksenia Lapshina, an analyst at the QBF IK, told RT about this.
According to her, Russians began to buy securities more often as a means of saving money against the backdrop of declining profitability of bank deposits.
Thus, over the past year, the maximum rate on deposits in the ten largest credit institutions in Russia dropped from 6.13% to 4.44% per annum.
This is stated in the materials of the Central Bank.
“Citizens go to the stock exchange in search of high profitability due to the decrease in deposit rates, therefore they are willing to buy securities.
The share of private investors in trading in shares in October was 43%, while back in 2019 it was close to 34%.
Russian investors provide demand even in those periods when foreigners are losing interest in our market, ”said Lapshina.
© Evgeny Odinokov / RIA Novosti
According to the Moscow Exchange, from January to November 2020, 4.2 million people opened brokerage accounts - more than in total for all previous years.
The total number of private investors on the trading floor has exceeded 8 million.
It is curious that the banks themselves attract the majority of new players to the exchange.
According to the Central Bank, in the third quarter of 2020, the share of credit institutions in the brokerage market reached 82%.
“Banks understand that the refusal of citizens from deposits can lead to a lack of funds for business.
As a result, credit institutions are trying by all means to retain clients, at least for brokerage services, ”explained Aleksey Korenev.
With an eye on the Central Bank
Experts interviewed by RT believe that the influx of Russians to the exchange will continue in the near future.
Thus, keeping money in bank deposits may become even less profitable if the Bank of Russia continues to cut its key rate.
The head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev told RT about this.
Recall that in July, the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate to the minimum for the entire post-Soviet period (4.25% per annum) and has kept it at this level ever since.
At the same time, in the regulator itself, they still see room for a further decrease in the indicator.
“The Russians will begin to return funds to deposits only if the Central Bank again returns to the policy of raising the key rate, and interest on deposits will start to grow,” Deev said.
Meanwhile, according to the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, the monetary policy of the regulator will remain soft throughout 2021.
At the same time, the transition to a neutral policy, which assumes a key rate range of around 5-6%, can only begin in mid-2022.
The head of the Central Bank announced this on November 25 at a speech in the State Duma.
According to Artyom Deev, further growth of the Russian stock market may have a positive effect on the country's economy.
Thus, an additional inflow of investments will allow businesses to recover faster from the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, which will lead to a revival of business activity.
“The capitalization of the market is increasing due to the inflow of funds into securities.
This gives additional money for specific companies that can use them for development, ”added the analyst.