Brussels gives Hungary and Poland 24 hours to lift their veto on the Rescue Fund and the EU Budget until 2027, which they have been paralyzed for weeks.

The governments of Budapest and Warsaw have taken to the highest level their rejection of the so-called Rule of Law Mechanism, which would ultimately allow the EU to cut community funds to those who do not respect the common values ​​and principles, contained in Article 2 of the Treaty of the Union.

And all 25 have said enough.

European sources have explained this Monday that "if between today or tomorrow at the latest there is no movement" by both countries,

the 25 will activate Plan B

, some type of mechanism to get the same emergency resources but without the members most unruly in the club.

The message is an ultimatum, but also a negotiating position.

This Thursday and Friday there is a European Summit in Brussels, in person, in which very important issues will be addressed.

And there is nothing more important for Heads of State and Government than to close the issue of

the Rescue Fund and the Budget, since the current one expires on December 31

at midnight and any extension is, by its nature, very limited.

It is not a process like that of a national budget, but there would be hundreds of programs that would automatically stop, paralyzing between 25,000 and 30,000 million euros, according to estimates by the Commission.

From day one the solution to the problem is very clear.

Things in the Union are done in predictable, predictable, regulatory ways.

The consensus at 25 on the need to maintain the Mechanism is very clear at this point, and the European Parliament, which must ratify everything, also has a firm position.

The mechanism remains, so the way to try to convince and satisfy Budapest and Warsaw is some kind of document, of declaration, of conclusions of the European Council (with legal value) of promise of the Commission that always, and whatever happens. pass, the procedure will be fair, transparent, proportionate.

The Orban and Morawiecki front

Viktor Orban and Mateusz Morawiecki fear that Brussels wants to cut the funds, and it is a very well-founded fear, because almost no one has doubts that what they have been doing for years, at various levels, violates the spirit and the letter of the Treaties, and the voices crying out for a reaction are more and more.

The mechanism, however, is limited.

Lets current, but only if there is a very continental dimension.

The offer of the Commission and

the presidency of the Council, which this semester is held by Germany

, is a declaration of the leaders assuring that there will be no reprisals, revenge, and grudges.

That all capitals will be treated the same, without prejudice.

And that the Rule of Law Mechanism will not become a weapon or a battering ram, nor will its activation be threatened to pressure Hungary and Poland on other issues, and more precisely in the case of emigration and asylum.

From the first day it has been clear that this would be the way, and the only thing missing and still missing was to negotiate the format and the language, fighting every word.

The 25 want it to be done now, in two days, so as not to hijack this week's European Council, which must address the situation of

the pandemic, the situation of the euro, the Turkish challenge or the danger of Brexit

, although theoretically that negotiation will not is on the official agenda.

But both capitals remain firm for now in their blockade, they are publishing articles in the European press defending their position and they have a great campaign, in national keys to maintain.

They need to plant any document as a clear victory, and that is why they push for the strongest possible language and the greatest legal guarantees at their disposal.

The options of the 25

The Brussels ultimatum is based on the possibility of acting alone.

Hungary and Poland cannot veto the Rule of Law Mechanism, since it requires only a qualified majority, but they can veto the procedures of the Budget and therefore the Rescue Fund, which require unanimity.

The 25 shuffle up to three options to act if the toughest of Visegrad do not twist their arms.

The first option, the most difficult and time consuming, would be an

intergovernmental mechanism

.

The embryo of Mede, the European Financial Stability Fund, which made the first bailouts since 2012, was born exactly like this.

The second,

reinforced cooperation

, a path that the Treaties allow and that serves for a minimum of nine countries to act jointly in certain areas where there is no consensus at 27.

The third is to use the flexibility of Article 122 of the Treaties, which in the past has already served for

the Commission to go into debt and provide some aid to members in distress

.

In practice, something similar would be done, but on a large scale, with the Commission going on the market and transferring funds.

Nobody wants that option, more problematic and with limits, but it could be used temporarily, until the skeptics give in.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

  • Poland

  • Hungary

  • European Parliament

  • Viktor Orban

  • Germany

European UnionHungary and Poland tense the pulse and veto the recovery fund and the next EU Budget

European Union Hungary and Poland veto the Rescue Fund that Spain so badly needs.

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