The cession of the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, to allow part of the management of European funds to the autonomous communities to tie up votes of Esquerra Republicana and PNV for the Budgets generates concern among investors.
The execution by the central government of European funds has already been poor in the past,
but if the autonomous communities are given cake the danger of failure increases
This is one of the "new risks" for the Spanish economy that are being detected by the country's large consulting firms that are outlining projects for the European manna and that yesterday was put white on black by the US investment bank Goldman Sachs.
This entity, one of the most influential in the world, warns investors in an analysis about the way in which the coalition government "is linking its destiny" to the independentists in a document to which this newspaper has had access.
The multiplier effect of the economic growth that the up to 140,000 million community manna have in Spain is a key factor in sustaining the country's credibility, but entrusting part of the management of the cake to restless communities.
In regional governments they are not understanding what Brussels can accept
, they have to be projects that transform the economy," they explain to this newspaper in one of the consulting firms that are collaborating with the Government and companies to prepare projects.
Goldman Sachs openly warns that "as the ability to execute differs between regions, the government exposes itself to additional risk in trying to spread its biggest asset to promote growth."
The regional authorities have become a fundamental element for the execution of investments
, which is the most important structural element of the Spanish budget package."
Goldman analysts point out that, for example,
the Basque government has only managed to
run 58% of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) in the current Community budget framework ,
which began in 2014 and that the Generalitat of Catalonia does not reach 38%
The Junta de Andalucía remains at 28% and the average in Spain is 34%.
And he insists on "the restriction" that involves "winning the support of regional parties by transferring a large part of the Recovery Fund (18,000 million euros, 1.5% of GDP) to the regional authorities."
A report by the Dutch ING underlines that "for a country like Spain,
the absence of European funds would eliminate more than half of the growth
we expect for 2021 and 2022".
For all this, the Government's version that the approval of the Budgets for 2021 generates confidence in the markets contrasts with warnings such as that of Goldman.
According to his analysis of what happened in the Spanish Parliament, the coalition government chaired by Pedro Sánchez is assuming "new risks" for the Spanish economy by "not having been able to overcome disagreements with the opposition parties -PP, Vox and Citizens - and turn to regional parties to get the parliamentary support it needs.
Consequently, "the coalition seems to have linked its fate to the support of regional parties," he warns.
And it considers it problematic, because "it has reinforced the role of the regional authorities in the management of structural investments" for Spain.
“Since the new political pact with the regionals depends crucially on the European funds, the political stability of Spain depends on a quick approval of the EU budget.
Any delay in the approval and adoption of the community budget and related funds
would probably lead to an increase in political instability in Spain,
He is also pessimistic about the fact that the pact reached "with ERC, PDeCAT and EH Bildu" may be extended "beyond next year."
Nor does it praise the approved Budgets, which are "a set of different targets with restrictions."
Remember that «they combine tax increases (4,200 million euros, 0.4% of GDP), additional expenses (11,000 million euros, 0.9% of GDP) and the increase in pensions and salaries of public employees ».
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
EconomyGoldman Sachs warns investors about Pedro Sánchez, because he "links his destiny" to independentists
PoliticsThe PP rejects the Budgets "of the lie" and of "the betrayal of Spain"
Congress Pablo Casado and Inés Arrimadas attack the pact with Bildu and Pedro Sánchez accuses them of following Trump's path
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