The role of artificial intelligence is prominent-will
more robots affect employment
Han Bingzhi, reporter of Economic Daily and China Economic Net
In the short term, the impact of artificial intelligence on total employment is relatively mild, and the structural impact is heavier than the quantitative impact, but the structural contradictions in employment are on an upward path, and the potential risk of technical unemployment is increasing.
In the long run, the impact of artificial intelligence on employment presents a gradual and large-scale structural transformation trend.
On the whole, automation substitution has not caused significant fluctuations in employment. One of the important reasons is that the manufacturing industry has been in a state of lack of labor for a long time, and automation first replaced these lack of jobs, and did not have a significant impact on labor supply and demand.
"Xiao Ming" can write financial news, "Smart Specialist" can do banking business, "Jingjing" can guide the delivery of express delivery...As artificial intelligence gradually plays the role of "main force" in economic and social development, artificial intelligence is important for employment The impact has become the focus of attention from all sectors of society.
Recently, a research result released by the Mo Rong research team of the Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security Sciences believes that the current impact of artificial intelligence on my country’s employment is generally limited.
In the short term, the impact of artificial intelligence on total employment is relatively mild, and the structural impact is heavier than the quantitative impact, but the structural contradictions in employment are on an upward path, and the potential risk of technical unemployment is increasing.
In the long run, the impact of artificial intelligence on employment presents a gradual and large-scale structural transformation trend.
Smart manufacturing action upgrade
my country's artificial intelligence industrialization effect began to appear on a large scale around 2016.
In 2016, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces began to upgrade their "intelligent manufacturing" to improve the automation level of manufacturing.
Not only that, the aging population has also strengthened the demand for intelligence.
The aging of the population and the formation of labor shortage trends have also forced companies to adopt intelligent technologies to improve labor productivity.
According to Mo Rong, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security Sciences, there are three main reasons for the substitution of domestic manufacturing automation.
One is that the highly process-oriented, standardized and difficult, dirty, tired, and dangerous positions are often the first to complete automation.
For example, the field of new chemical materials is a mature application industry of robots. Because of its high pollution, it has basically realized intelligence and has fewer operators.
The second is the large shortage of labor in the industry.
Manufacturing companies are generally short of labor, labor costs are rising too fast, and automation is needed to fill the labor gap to maintain stable production.
The third is to improve the quality and precision requirements.
The survey found that the automation rate of key high-tech positions is high, the labor management cost is significantly reduced, and the production efficiency and stability are significantly improved.
"The main goal of enterprise automation transformation is to improve the overall efficiency of the enterprise, and the reduction of jobs is the result of efficiency increase." Mo Rong believes that in the short term, the application of artificial intelligence technology and equipment will have little effect on the number of employees in the manufacturing industry.
According to the survey, the turnover rate of employees in some enterprises has increased due to the intelligent upgrading and transformation, but the labor market quickly absorbs the lost employees, and overall employment is stable.
As the first city in the country to carry out the "machine substitution" operation, the current employment situation is generally stable.
In 2018, the Dongguan Municipal Bureau of Human Resources and Social Security conducted a survey and analysis of 53 companies upgrading smart manufacturing.
The results show that enterprise intelligence has not had a significant impact on the number of employment.
A vertical comparison of the employment registration of intelligent enterprises shows that the total number of employees is basically the same as the total number of employees in the city, showing a steady and slight decline.
"Overall, automation substitution did not cause obvious fluctuations in employment. One of the important reasons is that the manufacturing industry has been in a state of lack of labor for a long time. Automation first replaced these lack of jobs and did not have a significant impact on labor supply and demand. The labor turnover rate in the manufacturing industry is relatively high, and the employment replacement rate is much lower than the labor mobility rate. Laborers are not only moving within the manufacturing industry, but also continuing to transfer to the service industry. This provides an effective solution channel for enterprises to absorb redundant personnel." Mo Rong said.
Changes in job structure
"From the perspective of the actual process of intelligentization, it will be a process from gradual quantitative change to qualitative change due to many factors." Mo Rong said that the current job cuts and downsizing effects are only limited to the specific stage of partial post and equipment upgrades. The overall impact on employment is limited.
The redundancy of some personnel will not cause a sudden increase in unemployment of low-end labor.
On the one hand, the service industry has effectively absorbed transitional jobs.
Benefiting from the rapid development of the service industry, the employment structure has been continuously optimized.
In the process of automation, while the number of employees in a single enterprise decreases, the number of enterprises increases.
New forms of employment in the service industry are growing rapidly.
On the other hand, the implementation of smart manufacturing upgrades by manufacturing enterprises is a process of equipment replacement and capacity expansion. Enterprises consider production and operation costs comprehensively, and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises still need to rely on manual labor.
The survey found that, for example, a tire factory in Suzhou City only realizes unmanned operation on the tire building assembly line. If the intelligence is further expanded, it is not as advantageous to retain human positions.
Although the application of artificial intelligence technology and equipment in the domestic manufacturing industry is still in its infancy, there is a lot of room for development in the future.
The analysis believes that with the transformation of my country's manufacturing enterprises' growth mode and production automation transformation, the market prospects for the promotion of industrial robots will be very broad.
In particular, the artificial intelligence industry chain has great potential for creating new jobs.
"In the short term, the total number of jobs has remained stable, and the changes in the job structure have gradually increased. In the medium and long term, with the accelerated development of intelligence, the structural unemployment risk of traditional jobs has become prominent, and the problem of structural unemployment will become more and more serious. The amount depends on the number of jobs created and reduced by the combination of artificial intelligence technology and various industries and industries at different stages. In the early and middle stages of the development of artificial intelligence, there are still situations in which the substituted labor cannot be employed quickly and the unemployment rate has risen sharply. Pay attention." Mo Rong said.
Promote high-quality employment transformation
Research believes that the trend of intelligent employment will promote the transformation of high-quality employment.
With the accelerated impact of artificial intelligence and other technologies on employment, skills development, labor relations, social security, and regulatory services are facing new challenges.
Therefore, it is urgent to adapt to the requirements of the new era, strengthen the coordinated development of industrial employment through active and effective policy guidance and institutional reform and innovation, and form a corresponding employment governance framework.
"Employment transformation requires strong support and balance of policies. The development of artificial intelligence has a comprehensive impact on employment, including job replacement and job creation, which not only improves the overall quality of employment, but also has the pressure to achieve full employment. Employment services and Skills training innovation must be two-pronged, not only to strengthen the intelligent education and training of the new labor force in the future, but also to take effective service measures for the existing labor force." Mo Rong believes.
The survey shows that the current domestic smart manufacturing strategy and employment promotion policies are not highly related.
Many companies that accept automation upgrades hope to get support from a systematic policy system to coordinate the work of funding, technology, and skill training.
In the process of implementing smart manufacturing upgrades, some enterprises in Jiangsu hope that the government will increase financial subsidies for purchasing equipment, and also hope that relevant departments can coordinate and organize the establishment of physical institutions to help companies solve technical problems such as robot applications and provide special training on smart manufacturing. Subsidies" in order to provide enterprises with more external training opportunities.
In recent years, a series of macro-level talent policies and talent strategies have been generally introduced in various places, but the focus on the talent policy positioning of the intelligent industry is not specific enough, and the policies on the introduction, training, and exchange of industrial talents are not detailed enough.
Some places pay more attention to the introduction and training of high-level talents, but lack corresponding preferential policies for skilled talents, and there are problems such as difficulty in settling down and children in school.
"To build the top-level design of employment governance, it is necessary to assess the actual impact that macroeconomic changes may bring, prepare for changes in the labor market, and make policies forward-looking, targeted and flexible." Mo Rong said, especially in training It is necessary to strengthen the participation of training institutions and enterprises in employment governance in order to adapt to the rapid growth and changeable complexity of the demand for new skills.
At the same time, as new forms of employment become more and more normal, employment on digital platforms is blurring the boundaries between full-time work and free work, and a labor and employment management system based on personal identification information needs to be established.
The research results suggest that it is necessary to accelerate the improvement and innovation of employment services and rights protection systems, establish an education and training system that adapts to digital transformation, and promote the benign interaction and coordinated development of artificial intelligence and labor and employment to facilitate the conversion of development momentum and the improvement of quality and efficiency.
Han Bingzhi