After suffering in November due to confinement, economic activity will regain some color in December, without however returning to normal, according to INSEE forecasts.
The Institute also maintains its forecast of a GDP down by 9% for the whole of 2020.
In November, with the closure of bars, restaurants, so-called non-essential shops, but also cinemas and theaters, economic activity recorded a decline of 12% compared to what it is. traditionally at this time of year.
If it will not return to a normal level in December, because there are still prohibited activities, the decline will nonetheless diminish: it will be 8%, according to forecasts from INSEE.
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This thinning is mainly due to consumption, which will certainly still be down compared to the situation that prevailed before the crisis (a drop of 6% foresees INSEE), but the decline will be much less severe than in November. where household purchases were down 14%.
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INSEE observes Google requests
To produce these forecasts, INSEE relies on its usual data, but also on indicators that make it possible to better measure the responsiveness of behavior.
For example, bank card transactions, or the evolution of requests on Google.
We learn that searches around the words "train" and "flights" started to rise again towards the end of November, as did the queries "cinema" and "theater".
There is even also a quiver of requests "restaurant" and "hotel", while we know that restaurants will not be able to reopen at best until January 20.
For the whole of 2020, INSEE maintains its forecast of a GDP down by 9%.