Why the increase in China’s food imports
Economic Daily · China Economic Net reporter Liu Hui
In the first three quarters, my country's grain imports increased year-on-year mainly due to two reasons: First, domestic demand grew rapidly, and second, domestic and foreign food prices were upside down.
Experts believe that moderate imports are an important means to ensure national food security.
At present, my country has achieved the food security goal of basic self-sufficiency in cereals and absolute food security.
However, the structural contradiction between food supply and demand still exists.
Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the surplus and deficiency through imports, optimize the supply structure, and improve the overall level of national food security from a higher level.
According to customs data, in the first three quarters of this year, my country’s grain imports increased year-on-year, especially corn imports.
In the first three quarters, my country’s grain imports amounted to 102.06 million tons, an increase of 24.9% over the same period of last year, 81.74 million tons. Among them, corn imports were 6.67 million tons, an increase of 72.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate far exceeded other food varieties. Corn imports accounted for the proportion of total food imports. Increased from 4.7% in the same period last year to 6.5%; soybean imports were 74.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, accounting for 73% of total grain imports.
Domestic demand growth is the main reason
Huang Hanquan, director of the Price Cost Survey Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the rapid increase in domestic demand is the main reason for the increase in food imports.
First of all, stimulated by the country's policy of vigorously encouraging live pig production since last year, the production of live pigs and reproductive sows across the country has gradually recovered, which has led to a substantial increase in the demand for feed corn and soybeans.
Secondly, a number of corn deep processing projects have been launched in recent years, resulting in the expansion of corn deep processing capacity from 76 million tons in 2017 to nearly 113 million tons in 2019.
At the same time, after many years of destocking and structural adjustments since 2016, my country's corn production and demand gap has expanded year by year, and corn supply and demand has turned from a staged surplus to a tight supply, and only through imports can the supply gap be balanced.
"The upside-down of domestic and foreign grain prices is another important reason for the growth of grain imports." Huang Hanquan said that international grain prices have risen this year, but they are still lower than domestic grain prices. The current CIF price of imported corn is 500 per ton lower than domestic corn. Around yuan.
This is mainly because the scale and organization of my country's grain production is not high enough, and there is a big gap between the tens of hectares and hundreds of hectares of family farms in European and American countries, and the domestic grain does not have much competitive advantage in price.
Appropriate imports are an important means to ensure national food security.
At present, my country’s grain crops have been harvested year after year and stocks are sufficient. The self-sufficiency rate of grains has exceeded 95%. The self-sufficiency rate of rice and wheat rations has exceeded 100%, achieving the food security goal of basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of rations.
However, structural contradictions between my country's grain supply and demand still exist, such as insufficient supply of high-quality wheat and rice, a gap in the production and demand of corn, and a self-sufficiency rate of soybeans of less than 20%.
Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the surplus and deficiency through imports, optimize the supply structure, and improve the overall level of national food security from a higher level.
Judging from the current import structure, imports of wheat and rice are very small.
Taking 2019 as an example, the annual import volume of rice and wheat only accounted for 1.8% and 2.3% of the output of the year; the import volume of feed grains such as corn and its substitutes barley, sorghum, corn distillers' grains and cassava is relatively large; soybeans are highly dependent on imports , Soybeans from Brazil, the United States and Argentina accounted for more than 90% of imports, and the "stuck neck" has long existed.
Imports have limited impact on international food prices
Affected by the epidemic and other factors this year, the export prices of US corn, Russian wheat and French barley have risen by 30% since May. At the same time, the United Nations Global Grain Price Index hit the highest in more than 5 years. Chicago corn and wheat futures have been in the past three months. Increased 25% and 17.5%.
Foreign media believe that China's procurement and other major grain-producing countries' own problems have pushed up global corn, wheat and barley prices.
Huang Hanquan believes that it is irresponsible and completely contrary to the facts to attribute the rise in international food prices to China's massive imports of food.
In terms of import volume, my country's grain import and export volume only accounts for about one-tenth of the global trade volume, and the majority of imports are soybeans, which has a limited impact on world food prices.
Since the beginning of this year, the main reason for the substantial increase in international food prices is not the shortage of world food, but the increase in uncertainty in world food trade caused by the epidemic, the strengthening of the control of food trade by countries, and the impact of pests in some areas. Food prices rose in a panic.
Huang Hanquan stated that first, during the worst period of the epidemic, some grain exporting countries adopted measures to prohibit or restrict grain exports, which aggravated the panic of the food crisis.
Second, in recent years, international economic and trade conflicts have continued, and the volatility of world food prices, production and trade has increased, and many countries have increased their food reserves, resulting in a decrease in the amount of food available for trade.
Third, this year's locust plague and the raging Spodoptera exigua have severely impacted food production in Africa, the Middle East, India and other regions. The expected reduction in production in related areas has pushed up world food prices to a certain extent.
Fourth, due to the impact of the epidemic, global cargo transportation and supply chains have been severely blocked, and logistics costs have risen sharply.
Fifth, some advanced economies issued additional currencies in response to the epidemic, and the currency effect formed was also reflected in food prices.
Experts said that it is worth noting that this year, affected by many factors, international food prices have risen. International capital has seized the psychological expectations of traders and processing companies to increase food prices and speculated on international food prices in the futures market, especially this year. Since September, the price of international grain futures has risen significantly, which has led to a coordinated rise in spot prices.
Therefore, we must be highly vigilant and guard against the risks caused by international speculative capital speculation.
Strengthen the right to speak in international food trade
The food issue has always been used as an important bargaining chip in strategic games.
The more the crisis is, the more important the food will be.
Huang Hanquan believes that as a major food importing country, my country must continuously increase its initiative and voice in international food trade, strengthen global food supply chain management, and make full use of the two international and domestic markets and two resources to ensure national food security.
Promote the diversification of food import countries and channels.
Grain trade is affected by many uncertain factors such as international trade frictions, and striving to build a diversified import pattern is an effective means to ensure the security of food supply.
In recent years, my country has followed the "appropriate import" national food security strategy, actively developed international food trade, and gradually changed the relatively single source country of imports, easily subject to changes in policies and output of exporting countries, and promoted the sources and channels of my country’s food imports. And the diversification of the structure, through the market approach, to avoid the domestic food market from the impact of global food prices.
For example, in terms of soybean imports, my country continues to expand the sources of soybean imports, and countries such as Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Ethiopia have also become important sources of soybean imports.
Strengthen global food supply chain management.
This year’s epidemic has once again proved that during the crisis, any prohibition or restriction on food exports can only exacerbate panic and crisis.
my country must actively promote the stable operation of the global food supply chain and logistics chain, strengthen multilateral and bilateral cooperation with international organizations and other countries, build an efficient, coordinated, accurate, agile, safe, resilient, green and sustainable food supply chain, and ensure international food trade Unhindered, uninterrupted grain logistics.
It is necessary to guide enterprises to "go global", cultivate large Chinese grain merchants with international competitiveness, and realize the safety and control of all links in the entire grain industry chain.
At present, the four major international grain merchants ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus of France control 80% of the international grain trading market, and their influence in international grain trade is evident.
my country must establish a global vision, strengthen strategic vision, cultivate a group of large-scale, strong, and profitable international grain merchants, carry out multinational operations such as grain production, processing, warehousing, logistics, and equipment manufacturing, and gradually form internal and external linkages, and link production and sales. , The development pattern of complementary advantages and mutual promotion will better guarantee food security.
Strengthen grain import quota management to ensure the safety of the grain industry.
my country implements quota management on the three major grain imports of wheat, rice and corn. Since 2004, the import quota has remained unchanged. my country's wheat import tariff quota is 9.636 million tons, corn is 7.2 million tons, and rice is 5.32 million tons.
At the same time, the monitoring and management of grain import and export should be strengthened, smuggling should be severely cracked down, market order should be regulated, and the impact of disorderly imports on the domestic grain industry should be avoided.
Liu Hui