Frontiers in real estate development are infiltrating the countryside.

Lishui is located in the Yangtze River Delta and is the largest prefecture-level city under the jurisdiction of Zhejiang Province.

Since the easing of the epidemic situation, real estate companies such as Country Garden (02007.HK), Gemdale (600383.SH), and Huahong Jiaxin have come to this place to "conquer the city." High-rise residential buildings and low-rise residential buildings are in the same frame. A hundred rounds of bidding and a premium rate of over 50% % Is not uncommon.

　　The surface of the local auction market is prosperous, and the surrounding counties and townships can't sit still. Jinyun and Songyang counties have put up commercial and residential properties for auction.

However, the enthusiasm of real estate companies seems to enter the winter with the season. Eight days ago, a commercial and residential property with a total starting price of 1.141 billion yuan in Mingshan Village failed to sell because the quotation did not reach the reserve price.

　　The temporary slowdown of Mingshan Village’s urban transformation plan is a microcosm of the recent cold in the local auction market.

Crane data shows that last week (November 16 ~ November 22) the transaction area of ​​key cities has declined year-on-month, and the transaction premium rate was only 7%, which fell to the lowest point since the second quarter.

　　"With the gradual strengthening of financial supervision in the real estate industry, the company has become more cautious in terms of investment and financing." A financial officer of a central state-owned real estate company told reporters that the "three red lines" have less impact on stable central enterprises, but the company is When investing, it will still "step by step".

　　More real estate companies in the red and orange sectors are forced to shrink their investment pace under the pressure of reducing debt.

　　At the end of the year, the "land grab" drama faded

　　Whenever the end of the year approaches, the urban land supply is generally increased, and real estate enterprises will usher in the traditional investment and development peak season.

This year, this scene was only sporadically staged in hot cities.

　　On November 23, Shenzhen set off a climax of 2020 local auctions, selling land for 34 billion yuan in a single day, and the transaction size increased nearly three times compared with the same period last year.

The last time Shenzhen land auction exceeded 20 billion yuan in a single day, it dates back to June 24, 2019, when the single-day transaction was only 22.4 billion yuan.

　　On the same day, Jiaxing, Zhejiang, publicly sold a commercial and residential area in Wuzhen, Tongxiang City.

In the end, in only one round of bidding, Zhejiang Yuanzhi Investment Development Co., Ltd. (Wuzhen Renjia) won the Tongtuchu [2020] No. 28 plot with a total price of 213 million yuan, with a premium rate of only 1.43%.

　　Still in Zhejiang, Zhoushan City sold 1 commercial and residential land in Putuo District.

In the end, in only one round of bidding, Ningbo Hoonan Real Estate Information Consulting Co., Ltd. (Dexin) won the bid for plot 42-5 in Donggang New District with a reserve price of 572 million yuan, with a floor price of 8,200 yuan per square meter.

　　Compared with the enthusiasm of real estate companies in acquiring land in Shenzhen, more cities do not receive this treatment.

According to CRIC monitoring data, in October, the number of land auctions in key cities reached 111, which is the month with the largest number of land auctions this year; the rate of land auctions reached 12.4%, a new high since the second quarter of this year.

　　Entering November, the local auction market is still low.

Although the pace of land promotion in many cities has been significantly accelerated, especially in Kunming and Zhengzhou, which provided less land in the first half of the year, indicators such as transaction and construction, premium rate, and unsold rate in key cities continue to decline, and there is no sign of recovery.

　　CRIC monitoring data shows that last week, the total construction area of ​​key cities was 8.57 million square meters, down 28% and 14% from the same period last week. Due to the significant decline in the quality of the land sold, the transaction premium rate was only 7%, which fell to the lowest level since the second quarter. At the same time, land auctions are also deteriorating.

　　Judging from the reasons for the unsold auctions, more than half of the land parcels were unsold due to no bidding.

Similar to Mingshan Village, these plots are either for commercial use or for suburban homes with remote locations and lack of surrounding facilities. Under the influence of the increase in the supply of high-quality land at the end of the year, it will inevitably be cold.

　　Even in Shenzhen, where local auctions are relatively hot, the transaction prices are still relatively stable.

Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, said that this year's Shenzhen transactional floor prices fell 43.9% year-on-year. As of November 23, the cumulative premium rate was 22.3%, which was 2.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month and 11.7% year-on-year.

　　"At the time node approaching the end of the year, coupled with the'three red lines' pressure on the top, real estate companies strengthen marketing efforts on the sales side, accelerate sales collection, and at the same time have control over land acquisition, (in order) to balance debt reduction and growth "The relationship between them." said Chen Xiao, an analyst at the Zhuge Housing Data Research Center.

　　Industry game rules have changed

　　The chief financial officer of the aforementioned state-owned real estate company is not surprised by the cautious attitude of real estate companies in the local auction market.

"We are also very confused now, where exactly should the construction companies invest their money? Investing in development by ourselves, from acquiring land to selling houses is not easy, and investing in peers is more risky."

　　The person in charge also said that the sudden change of the industry environment makes him full of confusion. As the financing environment becomes more tight, every money spent is more cautious.

　　On August 20 this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Central Bank held a seminar on key real estate companies and proposed the "three red lines" financing supervision new regulations ("345" new regulations). The new regulations are aimed at correcting the blind expansion of some companies and strengthening real estate companies. Marketization, regulation and transparency of financing management.

　　At present, the regulatory authorities have issued three monitoring forms to the pilot companies, covering the main operating and financial indicators, financing conditions, and off-balance sheet related liabilities of the real estate companies. They are required to be submitted before the 15th of each month; some financial institutions have also begun to sort out counterparties Indebtedness situation and customer situation.

　　Many people in the industry believe that the new financing regulations are penetrating supervision, and that perpetual bonds, real stock debts, off-balance sheet liabilities, etc., are not feasible to bypass the new regulations. The ultimate goal of real estate companies is to reduce interest-bearing liabilities and increase sales. Receiving payments and enhancing owner's equity meet regulatory requirements.

　　And controlling the amount of land acquisition is an important means to reduce total liabilities.

"We are becoming more cautious in the intensity and pace of land acquisition. The project strictly measures the cost and profitability. The current industry profitability is gradually narrowing. We must control the investment rhythm from the source." said the person in charge of the finance of the real estate company.

　　Pan Hao also bluntly said that industry rules have been redefined this year, and the short-term financing needs of real estate companies for the purpose of reducing debt are significantly higher than in the past, and stabilizing cash flow has become a mandatory topic for real estate companies.

Under the premise of preventing risks and stabilizing cash flow, the model of large-scale land hoarding has become a thing of the past.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that the land market has indeed been greatly affected by the "three red lines" recently. At least companies will be more conservative in order to reduce debt and related expenditures.

If real estate companies slow down their investment in land acquisition, it will eventually cause the land market to cool down.

　　Real estate companies have consciously reduced their debts and have begun to show results.

As of the end of the third quarter, China Merchants Shekou and Gemdale Group in the A-share market have improved from yellow to green; Rongsheng Development has improved from orange to yellow; and Blu-ray development has improved from red to orange. Changes.

　　Green housing companies usher in expansion opportunities

　　Real estate companies are increasingly cautious in their investment pace, but as December is approaching, some people in the industry are also looking forward to what kind of sparks this wave of land transfers will have at the end of the year.

　　"Historical data shows that December is the peak of the land market transaction volume, and the transaction size is twice the average level. Yesterday there was a peak of land auctions in Shenzhen. The premium rate of 6 plots peaked at 45%, marking the end of the year. A typical case of the climax coming." Pan Hao told reporters.

　　At present, under the situation of tight funds, real estate companies are more inclined to choose first- and second-tier and core cities in terms of land acquisition strategies. At the same time, the differentiation of real estate companies will further increase the concentration of the industry, and the land bank demand of large-scale and growing real estate companies will be higher than Small and medium-sized, short-term high debt housing enterprises.

　　However, the situation faced by red and green housing companies is very different.

A research by Ping An Securities found that the premium rate of land transactions in 100 cities has fallen for 4 consecutive months. From the comparison of the sales amount of land acquired by various real estate companies, the green file has exceeded 40% for three consecutive months; the red file has been below 20% for two consecutive months , And the premium rate is lower than 10% for 2 consecutive months.

　　Ping An Securities stated that the subsequent land market will continue to focus on stability and slowly cool down. The current financing regulations have not yet been fully implemented. It is expected that the green housing companies will actively grasp the land acquisition window period, and the red housing companies will be restricted by lower leverage, and land acquisition may remain cautious.

　　"Green-end real estate companies have sound financial indicators and will have more advantages in financing in the future, or they will have more development opportunities, and their performance and profitability may usher in new improvements." Chen Xiao believes.

　　However, Pan Hao also reminded that the "green file" is not risk-free.

According to the mid-term financial data of the top 100 real estate companies, among the 6 real estate companies classified as green, the interest-bearing liabilities of 3 real estate companies increased by more than 15% last year, which means that there is also a demand for debt reduction among the green housing companies.

"The strategic choice of a company's expansion cannot simply look at a single indicator, but also needs to combine the company's overall financial structure and long-term strategy."

　　Author: Sun Mengfan