Housing price changes in 15 sub-provincial cities: Shenzhen is 7.6 times that of Changchun, 4 cities are falling
Sub-provincial cities are second only to municipalities in administrative level, and they are an important part of my country's central city system.
What is the current housing price in the sub-provincial cities after the Golden 9th Silver 10th?
Which cities have higher pressure on housing prices?
A reporter from China Business News combed through the average unit price data of 15 sub-provincial cities on China's housing price market platform and found that among the 15 cities, Shenzhen ranked first, and Xiamen ranked second.
The first Shenzhen housing price is 7.6 times that of Changchun, the bottom of the list.
At present, housing prices in sub-provincial cities are also diverging. While many cities in the southeast coast are facing upward pressure, housing prices in four sub-provincial cities in Shandong and Northeast are falling.
It should be noted that the price here is the concept of average unit price, which is a city-wide price.
Generally speaking, the price of first-hand houses in the central and main urban areas will be significantly higher than this price.
Shenzhen first and Xiamen second
The data shows that in October 2020, Shenzhen’s average unit price reached 78,722 yuan per square meter, which is far ahead of the 15 cities, 1.6 times the second place Xiamen, and 7.6 times the last Changchun.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in October 2020, the housing prices of second-hand housing in Shenzhen have risen by 83.6% in the past five years, ranking first among 70 cities.
In addition, in October this year, second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen rose 0.9% month-on-month and 15.5% year-on-year. Both indicators ranked first in the country.
In other words, after Shenzhen introduced the new property market regulation policy on July 15 this year, Shenzhen's housing prices are still facing greater upward pressure.
On July 15 this year, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-rural Development and other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the City’s Real Estate Market". The main core content of the "Notice" relates to the qualifications for house purchase, down payment ratio, luxury property line, and exemption of transfer value-added tax. Six major aspects such as "two years to five years".
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, analyzed by China Business News that the increase in housing prices in Shenzhen in October was related to the decline in bank mortgage interest rates. “Banks regard the housing loan market in Shenzhen as a very high-quality and worthy market, so interest rates are generally common. Not too high.” In addition, in addition to banks, Shenzhen has various small loan companies, private equity institutions, housekeeping companies and other institutions that are providing “cannonballs” to the Shenzhen property market. Shenzhen's real estate financing is particularly convenient.
At the same time, the increase in housing prices in Shenzhen is still affected by supply and demand. Although the regulation on the demand side has been significantly strengthened, the demand for house purchases is still large, and the demand side gap is still obvious.
Statistics show that in the past four years, Shenzhen has actually supplied 766.6 hectares of residential land, accounting for only 14.2% of the actual supply of construction land.
In the past three years, only 81,000 housing units were supplied each year, which is difficult to meet the annual housing demand of 370,000 people. The housing ownership rate of the permanent population is only 24%.
Li Yujia said that the shortage of land supply in Shenzhen cannot be resolved in the short to medium term.
On the one hand, under the situation of limited land area in Shenzhen, it is necessary to expand outward through the Shenzhen metropolitan area and jump out of Shenzhen to solve the problem of land supply in Shenzhen. However, this involves coordination between several cities, including the interconnection of rail transit. Equalization of public services such as education and medical care is very difficult to solve.
On the other hand, including the adjustment of ecological land in Shenzhen, it is not easy to solve. Industrial land outside the industrial block line is converted to residential land. This is also being done, but it is also more difficult.
After Shenzhen, Xiamen, which is also a special economic zone and a city under separate planning, reached an average unit price of 48,169 yuan per square meter in October, ranking second among sub-provincial cities, and second only to Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai among all cities. The three first-tier cities rank fourth in the country, surpassing the first-tier city Guangzhou.
It is worth noting that, as a second-tier medium-sized city, Xiamen’s GDP ranks only third after Quanzhou and Fuzhou in Fujian Province, and 33rd in the country, and the size of the city’s population also only ranks first in the country. 27 bits.
Wang Qi, a local real estate industry insider and chairman of Xiamen Junhe Real Estate Land Evaluation Consulting Co., Ltd., analyzed to a reporter from China Business News. On the one hand, Xiamen has attracted a large amount of purchasing power in neighboring Quanzhou, Zhangzhou and other places due to its advantages in education and urban construction. .
But on the other hand, Xiamen's housing supply has been significantly lower than the growth rate of population and housing demand in the past years, and the debt gap is relatively large.
For example, the annual housing supply in Xiamen is only about 3 million square meters. Such a volume is a "small sector" among major cities in China.
Once the supply is increased, it will obviously curb high prices.
4 cities are falling, Harbin encourages companies to cut prices
The first-tier city, Guangzhou, ranks third in sub-provincial cities with an average unit price of 38,351 yuan per square meter, which is less than half of that of the sister city of Shenzhen in the same province.
Earlier, in October, the Shell Research Institute released the "2020 Cities Just-Needed House Purchase Report" for the first time to take stock of the "just-needed car baseline" in major cities.
Among them, Guangzhou (1.98 million) has only about 57% of the total price of “on-the-car” units in Beijing and Shenzhen, ranking sixth in the country. The relatively reasonable price has also allowed many people in the market to buy houses early.
Nanjing and Hangzhou, the capital cities of two major economic provinces from the Yangtze River Delta, have an average unit price of more than 30,000 yuan per square meter, ranking fourth and fifth in sub-provincial cities.
In addition, the average unit price of Ningbo and Qingdao, two separate cities from the developed eastern coastal areas, exceeded 20,000 yuan per square meter, ranking sixth and seventh.
After Qingdao, Wuhan from central China ranks eighth with 19,021 yuan per square meter, and Chengdu ranks ninth. The housing prices of the two cities both exceed Jinan, the capital of Shandong, the third largest economic province.
It is worth noting that Wuhan and Chengdu are not only the two cities with the highest housing prices in the central and western regions, but also the two cities with the most high-tech industries in the central and western regions.
It can be seen that the level of industrial development is the most important basis for the level of housing prices in a city.
On the whole, the housing prices of 15 sub-provincial cities show a trend of north-south differentiation. The cities with high housing prices all come from the southeast coastal area, and the bottom six cities all come from the northern region.
From the perspective of spatial layout, South China is the highest, followed by the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, Midwest and Northeast are the lowest.
Looking at the situation of the five cities separately listed in the plan, the order of housing prices is Shenzhen, Xiamen, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Dalian, showing a trend of gradual decline from south to north.
Among the 15 sub-provincial cities, the three cities with the lowest housing prices are all from the northeast, and these three cities are all over 10,000 per square meter, which is not a small distance from Xi'an, which is the fourth lowest.
Among them, Changchun is the lowest at 10,303 yuan per square meter, and Harbin is at 10,990 yuan per square meter, which is significantly lower than many small and medium cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian.
The difference in housing price differentiation between North and South cities is related to economic development in recent years, especially the development of emerging industries and population mobility, as well as economic structure and topography.
Zhang Dawei, chief market analyst of Centaline Real Estate, analyzed to a reporter from China Business News that many parts of the north are dominated by state-owned enterprises, and the industrialization process is relatively early. The proportion of non-commercial housing is very large, including a large number of shantytowns, and many people do not need to buy houses.
In terms of topography, the northern region is dominated by plains with a lot of land, while in the south, especially the southeast coast of Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong, there are more mountains and flat land, and many cities have tight supply.
On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, under the regional differentiation of the real estate market, the differentiation of 15 sub-provincial cities is also very obvious. While the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and other places are rising, many sub-provincial cities in Shandong, Northeast, etc. It is facing downward pressure.
Data show that in October, second-hand housing in Jinan fell 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year; Qingdao second-hand housing fell 0.4% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year; Changchun fell 0.5% month-on-month and Harbin fell 0.4% month-on-month.
Zhang Dawei analyzed that after the property market experienced a general rise in 2016 and 2017, the differentiation between regions since last year has been very obvious.
While the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are rising, many cities in the Yellow River Basin, North China, and Northeast China are falling. The main reason behind this differentiation is the development of emerging industries and the difference in population mobility.
Since the second half of this year, while Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other places have tightened property market regulation, Harbin has relaxed.
According to a recent report by the "Harbin Daily", in order to earnestly implement the relevant national, provincial, and municipal decisions and deployments, and support real estate and construction companies to actively respond to the difficulties caused by the epidemic to their production and operation, Harbin City will issue the "Regarding Promotion of the City's Real Estate Market During the Epidemic" "Notice on Policies Related to Stable and Healthy Development" (hereinafter referred to as "Notice"), announces specific support measures.
The "Notice" has a total of 14 supporting measures.
These include relaxing the provident fund loan policy, encouraging real estate companies to sell at a profit, and supporting financial institutions to "give the same policy support for residential apartment products as enjoying residential mortgage loans."
Behind the loosening is higher local inventory pressure and greater downward pressure on the economy.
Data show that in the first three quarters, Harbin’s GDP fell by 3.3% year-on-year, and its growth rate ranked second among the top 50 cities in GDP in the country.
The total GDP ranks last among sub-provincial cities, and has dropped to 47th among all cities, behind third-tier cities such as Taizhou, Luoyang and Linyi.
CBN reporter Lin Xiaozhao