China-Singapore Jingwei Client, November 24 (Chang Tao) "During 11.11, the express delivery price was at a relatively high level in a year, around two yuan per order. However, it has started to drop in the past few days. In a few days, the express delivery prices here will return to normal levels, with a minimum of a few cents per order.” Speaking of the ongoing price war in the express delivery industry, Yiwu wholesale market merchant Li Zhen shared his recent observations with reporters from Zhongxin Jingwei.
Zhang Fan, a white-collar worker working in Nanchang, Jiangxi, felt the changes brought about by the express price war in another way.
After Double 11 "Chop Hands", Yunfan found that at least five express delivery items had abnormal delivery.
"Some couriers are kept at the outlets for a few days and not delivered, and some couriers are directly returned to the place of delivery." Zhang Fan said.
Recently, "many express delivery companies appear unmanned delivery" and "how to treat the courier brother's strike" have become hot topics on Weibo, with a total of over 100 million views.
Behind this, the price war of express delivery companies has intensified.
October data released by listed companies shows that the single ticket revenue of major express companies has fallen by two to thirty percent year-on-year.
Industry experts believe that the express price war will not come to an end until at least April and May next year.
Photo by Chang Tao, New Jingwei in the data map
The unit price under the express price war fell by 20-30%
Since 2019, the express delivery industry has experienced a rather fierce price war, and the entry of new players has exacerbated the intensity of this war to some extent.
In 2019, SF Holdings launched new products with special offers. Since 2020, three new franchise express networks have joined, including Extreme Rabbit Express, Zhongyou Express under JD, and Fengwang under SF Express.
On October 1, Zhongyou Express announced the launch of a preferential policy of 1.5 yuan to the whole country.
Jitu Express even has large customers with a single ticket of less than 1 yuan in East and South China.
Li Zhen told reporters from Sino-Singapore Jingwei that in Yiwu, the price of Jitu Express to major customers is mostly RMB 80 per order. "Tongda Series" sometimes offers major customers as low as 1.5 yuan per order, but they have to get this price. , Is not easy.
"If you send a few hundred orders, no one cares about you. At least 3,000 will start." Li Zhen said.
Photograph by Fu Yumei, the new Jingwei in the data map
The price war is intuitively reflected in the monthly single ticket revenue announced by listed express companies.
Recently, express companies such as SF Express, Shentong, Yunda, and YTO have successively announced the October express service business briefings.
From the data point of view, the single-ticket revenue of the above-mentioned express companies all fell sharply in October, ranging from 20 to 30%.
Taking SF Express as an example, its October express logistics business revenue increased by 34.22% year-on-year; its business volume was 689 million votes, a year-on-year increase of 57.31%; single ticket revenue was RMB 17.50, a year-on-year decrease of 14.68%.
Compared with SF Express, Tongda express delivery companies have experienced a greater decline in single-ticket revenue when their business volume has increased.
In the same period, Yunda’s single ticket revenue was 2.18 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.72%; Shentong Express single ticket revenue was 2.25 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.21%; Yuantong Express express product single ticket revenue was 2.14 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.17%.
In the second quarter of this year, ZTO Express single ticket revenue was 1.29 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%.
Courier, consumer "very hurt"
When it comes to express price wars, Yiwu has to be mentioned.
Yiwu is the most concentrated small commodity distribution center in China. In the past two years, it has become a must for express companies because of the popular live broadcast of goods.
According to data from the China Business Industry Research Institute, from January to September 2020, Yiwu ranked first in the country with a volume of 59.895 million express delivery.
Yiwu has a long history of express price wars.
Public information shows that Best Huitong launched the "average price sales" strategy in Yiwu in 2013, breaking the balance of the express delivery price market.
This trick is very effective, and "four links and one reach" have to adopt a follow-up strategy.
As a result, Yiwu has become a national depression for express delivery prices. For a time, there was a "slaughter price" of "80 cents per order, express delivery nationwide".
Li Zhen believes that such a price is basically a loss.
But if the price is not reduced, it means that its market share will be occupied by other express companies.
Li Zhen has been engaged in wholesale business in Yiwu for six years and is quite familiar with the local express market.
In his view, Yiwu is a "wonderful place" for national express delivery.
“Express prices in other markets may be discussed every month or even year after year, but in Yiwu, express prices are discussed daily.” Currently, the price of express delivery items in Yiwu is still in the rhythm of Double 11.
Li Zhen said, "During Double 11, Extreme Rabbit Express will cost 1.9 yuan per order and Best Express will be 2.6 yuan per order. But these are prices for major customers, starting at 3,000 pieces. We also do a drop shipping. Mainly for small anchors who do live broadcasts with goods. The current price is 4 yuan per order."
However, according to Li Zhen's observation, the price of express delivery in Yiwu market has fallen.
"At present, the price is falling day by day, and a dime a day, and it will soon fall to the price level before Double 11. Under normal circumstances, Extreme Rabbit Express is 0.8 yuan per order, Best Express is 1.2 yuan per order, and one piece is sent on behalf of 3 Yuan." Li Zhen said.
According to Li Zhen, all experienced merchants in Yiwu understand the truth that low prices also mean the risk of "explosion", especially during the special time of Double 11.
"On November 1st, ZTO announced that the order volume on the first day of Double 11 exceeded 100 million. Our warehouse supervisor immediately made a decision to change the order, because he judged that ZTO would'empty positions'. It means that the 48-hour delivery has become 96 hours, and then all the energy will be used to cope with the customer service." Liu Fei, a merchant in Yiwu, told a reporter from Zhongxin Jingwei.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
The "adverse reaction" of the express price war is also reflected in the end of the logistics.
A courier said that one of the biggest changes after the price cut is: more life and less money.
This change directly leads to the situation of closure and withdrawal of express outlets scattered in all corners of the city.
For users, the direct response is "not receiving the goods."
Ma Yan, who goes to school in Nanning, Guangxi, told reporters from Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the express mail she recently sent was sent from the Nanning Transshipment Center to a certain branch, and no logistics information was updated for a few days, and no one sent it.
Later, I asked the merchant's customer service, and the other party told her that "the operation status of the outlet is a bit problematic" and suggested that she visit the outlet on site.
Ma Yan’s experience is not an isolated case. On social media such as Weibo, many consumers complained about their express delivery "always on the road", and #Express是要去旅游吗# has once become a hot topic.
Ms. Duan, who lives in Xi'an, told a reporter from China-Singapore Jingwei that if the unit price of express delivery is lowered, she would rather pay more for express delivery if it brings a bad online shopping experience such as delay in receiving the goods.
In an interview with the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, Zhao Xiaomin, an express logistics expert and CEO of Guanshao Enterprise Management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., said that a long-term price war will bring a vicious circle and hurt consumers and couriers.
"Price wars will inevitably bring about fluctuations in express delivery outlets, which means that the end of express delivery is unstable. The direct response is the decline in the income of the couriers and the decline in service quality, and ultimately the loss of users." Zhao Xiaomin said.
The price war ends next year?
From the perspective of industry insiders, the current express delivery industry has entered the knockout stage, and the differentiation of leading companies has appeared.
From the October data of express delivery companies, it can be seen that the business volume growth rate of the "Tongda Department" continues to maintain a differentiated characteristic. The volume growth rate of Yunda shares has continuously achieved more than 60%. Although the rapid business volume growth rate of Shentong has rebounded, it is compared with other "Tongda" There is a big gap between "department" and peers.
In addition, in the first three quarters of 2019, the volume growth rate of "Tongda" companies was 15% higher than that of the industry on average, but by the third quarter of this year, the volume growth of Shentong and Best had lagged behind the industry by 10%.
In contrast, Zhongtong's market share is gradually increasing, and the market share of parcels has further expanded by 1.9 percentage points to 20.8%.
However, Zhao Xiaomin believes that the express delivery industry knockout competition is not particularly obvious at present, and it will truly usher in the acceleration phase next year.
He believes that a tipping point will appear at a certain stage of the price war.
"For example, after this critical point, express delivery companies continue to cut prices, and business volume does not rise but decline; another example is that the number of outlets fluctuates and loses control. These are signs of the arrival of the critical point of the price war."
Lai Meisong, chairman of ZTO Express, also said that as the differentiation of express delivery companies progresses, the "price war" will slow down and even an inflection point will appear.
As for when will the turning point come?
Lai Meisong believes that this will still depend on the market investment of leading companies' production capacity, but "this point of time will not wait too long."
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Zhao Xiaomin expects that the price war in the express delivery industry will continue for about half a year. “The industry generally believes that it will come to an end in April and May next year.” Zhao Xiaomin said that some companies are actively involved in the price war in the express delivery industry, and some Enterprises are passively joined.
"The express delivery industry is dominated by business volume. There is no product concept, and strictly speaking, there is no moat. The price lever is completely adopted."
He believes that one reason for the price war in the express delivery industry is that express companies are not willing to transform and upgrade.
"The founders of some of the listed express delivery companies have not cashed out large sums of money so far. Before that, he is not willing to transform and upgrade and invest more funds to do other things. In this case, it is Will choose the simple and rude method of price war."
"For express companies that adopt the franchise business model, they are willing to join the price war. The franchise system has achieved great success in the express delivery industry. The hot spot of this model is short, flat and fast, simple and efficient. But it needs attention Yes, this kind of play is very beneficial during the period of rapid economic growth. At present, economic growth is at a relatively stable stage. The single play of price war will encounter greater challenges. While express companies are reducing prices, supporting services must also follow suit. On. If the price is reduced in order to reduce the price, the market share obtained will eventually be returned, and the customers obtained will eventually be lost." Zhao Xiaomin said.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract and use in other ways.