The China Economic Agricultural Economic Prosperity Index report for the third quarter of 2020 shows that -
The agricultural economy continues to improve and the income of farmers grows steadily
Economic Daily, China Economic Trend Research Institute, National Bureau of Statistics, China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center
In the third quarter of 2020, under the positive effects of various policies to support agriculture and benefit agriculture, my country's agricultural economy continued to improve and basically recovered to the level before the epidemic. The planting structure continued to be optimized, the production capacity of live pigs continued to recover, agricultural investment increased rapidly, and agricultural trade continued Improved, farmers’ income has grown steadily.
From the perspective of future expectations, the agricultural boom is expected to continue the upward trend in the fourth quarter; in the first quarter of next year, due to the lower year-on-year base caused by the epidemic, the prosperity index will rebound significantly.
In the third quarter of 2020, my country's agricultural economy continued to improve and has basically returned to the level before the epidemic.
The results of China Economics Agricultural Economic Surge Monitoring and Early Warning show that in the third quarter, China Economics Agricultural Economic Sentiment Index (hereinafter referred to as agricultural economic prosperity index) was 99.5, which was 1.1 points higher than the second quarter and 0.6 points higher than the same period last year.
The China Economic Agricultural Economic Early Warning Index (hereinafter referred to as the Agricultural Economic Early Warning Index) was 80.0, the same as in the second quarter, and continued to operate in the "light blue light area".
Agricultural economic prosperity index continues to rise
Compared with the second quarter, the six indicators that make up the agricultural economy prosperity index in the third quarter (only the seasonal factors are removed, and the random factors are retained) have all rebounded to varying degrees: agricultural production, fiscal expenditures on agriculture, forestry and water, agricultural income, and agricultural investment continue to rebound. The decline in agricultural exports continued to narrow, and agricultural labor productivity continued to improve.
After further excluding random factors, the prosperity index (the blue curve in the trend chart of agricultural economic prosperity index) is 2.0 points lower than the agricultural economic prosperity index.
The above data shows that in the face of the impact of the epidemic, floods, and the adverse effects of major diseases and insect pests, the state promptly issued a series of policies to ensure food production and promote agricultural stability, which played a positive role in improving the level of agricultural prosperity.
In the third quarter, the Agricultural Economic Early Warning Index was 80.0, which was flat for three consecutive quarters and continued to operate in the "light blue light zone".
Among the 10 indicators that make up the agricultural economic early warning index, there is one indicator located in the "red light area", which is the pig feed ratio; one indicator located in the "yellow light area" is the agricultural product production price index; it is located in the "green light area" There are two indicators, namely cereals and products imports and agricultural, forestry and water fiscal expenditure; in the "light blue light area" there are three indicators, respectively, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fixed asset investment, agricultural production material price index (reversal) And grain, oil and food retail; located in the "blue light district" there are 3 indicators, namely the added value of the primary industry, the per capita net income of rural residents and agricultural exports.
It can be seen from the results of the early warning index that although the agricultural economic prosperity index has exceeded the level before the epidemic, some indicators are still low, and the recovery of the agricultural economy still needs to be further consolidated.
Food production is expected to reach new highs
In the first three quarters, the added value of the primary industry was 4812.25 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, and 1.4 percentage points higher than the cumulative growth rate in the first half of the year.
A bumper harvest for food production is in sight.
In the first three quarters, the added value of agriculture (planting industry) increased by 3.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that in the first half of the year, with an increase of 3.9% in the third quarter.
The summer grain and early rice increased production and income.
The national summer grain and early rice output totaled 340.2 billion jin, of which the national summer grain output was 285.6 billion jin, an increase of 2.42 billion jin, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year; the early rice output was 54.6 billion jin, an increase of 2.06 billion jin, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year, reversing the downward trend for many years .
The harvest of autumn grain is imminent.
This year, my country has increased subsidies for double-cropping rice planting, and the double-cropping rice planting area has expanded, laying the foundation for a bumper grain harvest.
At the same time, the overall growth of the main autumn grain crops is good, and autumn grain production is expected to have another bumper harvest.
The grain planting structure is also continuously optimized, the planting area of high-quality wheat and high-quality rice is further expanded, and the planting area of soybeans continues to increase.
According to estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the annual grain output is expected to remain above 1.3 trillion catties, which will hit a record high.
The recovery of livestock production capacity is accelerating.
In the first three quarters, the national output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 52.51 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 6.1 percentage points from the first half of the year.
Among them, the production capacity of live pigs continued to recover.
This year, various places have adopted measures such as increasing financial subsidies and guaranteeing production land to promote the resumption of live pig production and expansion, and the live pig stock has continued to rise.
At the end of the third quarter, the national live pig inventory was 37.39 million, an increase of 9.0% from the end of the second quarter. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the year-on-year decline of live pigs has narrowed significantly. A decrease of 11.7%, the rate of decrease narrowed by 8.2 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. The slaughter in the third quarter turned from negative to positive year-on-year, an increase of 15.1%; the first three quarters of pork production was 28.38 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, and the rate of decline narrowed 8.3 points from the first half of the year. percentage point.
The production of cattle and sheep is basically stable.
In the first three quarters of the country’s beef cattle production was 30.93 million heads, a decrease of 430,000 heads over the same period last year, a decrease of 1.4%; beef production was 4.5 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons, or 1.7%; milk production was 23.29 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons, an increase 8.1%.
At the end of the third quarter, the national cattle population was 95.72 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a month-on-month increase of 4.0%.
In the first three quarters, 21.49 million sheep were slaughtered across the country, a decrease of 7.33 million compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 3.4%; the output of mutton was 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, or a decrease of 1.8%.
At the end of the third quarter, the national sheep population was 312.17 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% and a month-on-month increase of 2.1%.
Poultry production maintained a rapid growth trend.
In the first three quarters, the country’s poultry production was 10.79 billion, an increase of 590 million over the same period last year, an increase of 5.8%; the output of poultry meat was 16.39 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons, an increase of 6.5%; the output of poultry eggs was 24.93 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons , An increase of 5.1%.
At the end of the third quarter, the country’s poultry inventory was 6.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 17.1%.
The decline in agricultural exports continues to narrow
In the first three quarters, my country’s agricultural exports were 54.44 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.0 percentage point from the first half of the year, which was the second consecutive quarter.
my country's advantageous agricultural products have actively overcome the impact of the epidemic, and the export situation has gradually improved.
In the first three quarters, the export of aquatic and seafood products fell by 10.8% year-on-year, which was 7.2 and 5.7 percentage points smaller than the cumulative decline from January to March and January to June respectively; fresh and dried fruits and nuts maintained a rapid growth trend, with a year-on-year increase 22.7%.
In the first three quarters, my country’s imports of cereals and their products were US$6.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.7%, and the growth rate was 24.4 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year, showing a sharp upward trend.
Among them, imports of wheat, corn, and sorghum are growing rapidly.
Data show that wheat imports were US$1.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 157.3%, and the growth rate was 73.1 percentage points higher than the first half of the year; corn imports were US$1.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68.8%, and the growth rate was up 52.9 percentage points; sorghum imports were US$820 million, a year-on-year increase 481.2%, although the growth rate is not as fast as in the first half of the year, it still shows a rapid growth trend.
At the same time, the import of barley also showed a rapid recovery trend. The import of barley in the first three quarters was US$1.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 19.1 percentage points from the first half of the year.
The demand for paddy and rice imports was generally stable, with imports of US$880 million in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in the first half of the year.
The rapid increase in the import of grains and their products is mainly due to the rapid recovery of domestic aquaculture, the increase in demand for feed grains such as corn, and the increase in prices, which have led to an increase in the demand for grain imports.
The rise in agricultural production prices fell
In the third quarter, the production prices of agricultural products rose by 14.8% year-on-year, a decline of 6.3 percentage points from the second quarter, and the growth rate fell for two consecutive quarters.
The decline in the price increase of agricultural production is mainly related to the decline in the price increase of animal husbandry, especially live pigs.
From the perspective of major agricultural products, the price increase of pigs and cattle all declined to varying degrees, and the price increase of live sheep was basically the same.
In the third quarter, the production price of live pigs rose by 59.0% year-on-year, a drop of 30.3 percentage points; the price of live cattle rose by 8.9%, a drop of 3.7 percentage points; the price of live sheep rose by 10.3%, and the growth rate was basically flat (a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point).
Vegetable prices have risen rapidly.
Vegetable prices rose by 9.1% in the third quarter, and fell 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter.
From the perspective of the three major staple foods, the price of corn rose rapidly, the price of rice rose moderately, and the price of wheat fell.
Data show that the price of corn in the third quarter rose 8.5% year-on-year, an increase of 3.7% over the second quarter; rice rose 2.3%, an increase of 1.1%; wheat prices fell 1.2%, compared with an increase of 1.8% in the previous quarter.
The price of live pigs rose and fell, and the pig feed ratio was generally higher than in the second quarter.
In the third quarter, the feed ratio of pigs was 13.41:1, which was slightly higher than in the second quarter, but was lower than the highest level of this "pig cycle".
On a monthly basis, the price of live pigs rose first and then fell.
In July, due to the drastically narrowed market supply of pigs for slaughter, the rising prices stimulated farmers' reluctance to sell, and further pushed up the market price. In the fourth week of June, the price of pigs was 33.77 yuan per kilogram and rose to RMB 33.77 per kilogram in the first week of August. 37.44 yuan.
After that, with the increase in the number of live pigs for slaughter, the tight supply and demand situation has eased, and the price of live pigs has gradually fallen to 35.15 yuan per kilogram in the fourth week of September.
Although the recovery of live pig production capacity has stabilized the rising trend of live pig prices, the increase in feed demand has led to a continuous increase in feed prices.
The feed price in the first week of July was 2.61 yuan per kilogram, and in the last week of September it rose to 2.82 yuan per kilogram.
Overall, the profitability of pig farming has declined.
From the perspective of later trends, my country has accelerated the recovery of live pig production capacity through large-scale and standardized pig farming, increased government subsidies, and leading enterprises. The supply of live pigs continues to improve, and the price of live pigs is expected to decline steadily.
The growth rate of farming income continues to pick up
As the situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control continues to consolidate, epidemic prevention measures in catering and other industries are gradually relaxed, residents' consumption of dining out has rebounded, home consumption has decreased, and the growth rate of retail sales of grain, oil and food has dropped to the level before the epidemic.
In the first three quarters, the retail sales of grain, oil and food reflecting final consumption was 11.10.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and the growth rate was 2.3 percentage points lower than that in the second quarter, but the growth rate remained the same as the same period last year, and the retail terminal food demand was close to the level before the epidemic .
The growth rate of agricultural income continued to pick up.
In the first three quarters, the per capita net operating income of rural residents was 3,788 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.5% year-on-year, and an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the first half of the year.
The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 12,297 yuan, an increase of 5.8%. After deducting price factors, the actual increase was 1.6%, while the first half was a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%.
The nominal growth rate of per capita disposable income of rural residents was 3.0% faster than that of urban residents, and the actual growth rate was 1.9% faster than that of urban residents.
The aquaculture industry continues to accelerate agricultural investment.
In the first three quarters, fixed asset investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery increased by 15.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was up 9.8 percentage points from the first half of the year.
Among them, driven by the investment demand for pig breeding, fixed asset investment in animal husbandry continued to accelerate, reaching 80.0% in the first three quarters, an increase of 31.9 percentage points from the cumulative growth rate in the first half of the year; fixed asset investment in agriculture (plantation) and fishery all improved to varying degrees In the first three quarters, investment fell by 6.6% and 17.8% year-on-year, respectively, which was 4.3 and 10.2 percentage points smaller than the decline in the first half of the year; investment in fixed assets in forestry changed from growth to decline.
Increase financial support for agriculture.
The government has increased its support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers, focusing on supporting the shortcomings of agricultural development, and the growth of financial funds supporting agriculture has continued to accelerate.
In the first three quarters, fiscal expenditure on agriculture, forestry and water was 1591.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% and an increase of 2.0 percentage points from the first half of the year.
In the first three quarters, the labor productivity of the primary industry was 2,2886.7 yuan per capita (comparable prices), a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and the growth rate was 1.4 percentage points higher than that in the second quarter, approaching the level of growth before the epidemic.
Overall, in the third quarter, under the positive effects of various policies to support agriculture and benefit agriculture, the agricultural economy continued its recovery growth, the planting structure continued to be optimized, the production capacity of live pigs continued to recover, the rapid growth of agricultural investment, the continuous improvement of agricultural trade and the income of farmers Steady growth.
From the perspective of future expectations, another bumper harvest of grain is expected throughout the year, laying a solid foundation for stabilizing market expectations and ensuring food security. At the same time, with the active implementation of the policy for the recovery of live pig production capacity, the supply and demand situation of pork will further improve, and the price increase of agricultural products is expected to continue to fall .
However, the epidemic has rebounded in many places around the world, the supply chain of the industrial chain is once again blocked, and many countries have restricted or even stopped food exports, and the uncertainty of the operation of the international agricultural product market continues to increase.
On the whole, the agricultural boom is expected to continue its upward trend in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of next year, due to the lower base year-on-year impact of the epidemic, the prosperity index will rebound significantly.
According to model calculations, the agricultural economy prosperity index for the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 are 99.8 and 101.2 respectively, and the agricultural economic warning index is 83.3 and 86.7 respectively. The warning signal is expected to rise to the normal "green light zone" operation.
The current economic situation at home and abroad is still complicated and severe. Deep-seated contradictions such as the low level of agricultural modernization in my country, the low degree of scale, the irrational structure of agricultural products, and the weak ability to resist risks are still prominent.
In order to ensure the steady development of agriculture in our country, it is necessary to further advance the strategy of rural revitalization, do a good job in grain production, continue to consolidate the ability of agriculture to stabilize production and supply, and lay a solid foundation for agricultural development.