Will the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continue to rise when it reaches 6.5?
Words of a Family
It is expected that the appreciation trend of the renminbi will remain unchanged, but the rate of appreciation will fall.
According to the news released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center: On November 17, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 1 U.S. dollar to RMB 6.5762, an increase of 286 basis points from the previous trading day to the 6.5 yuan era.
In addition, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have both risen to the 6.5 yuan era.
Next, will the RMB exchange rate continue to rise?
The renminbi exchange rate has risen to the 6.5 era, and it should be a high probability event to maintain the upward trend in the next step. There are four reasons.
First, the degree of marketization of the RMB exchange rate has gradually deepened, and the factors of human intervention by the central bank's external management department have basically been eliminated.
At the end of October this year, the secretariat of the foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism issued a message saying that based on its own judgments on economic fundamentals and market conditions, the quotation banks of the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar have taken the initiative to take the initiative to address the “inverse” in the central parity quotation model of the RMB against the US dollar. Cycle factor" fades out to use.
This means that the most critical step has been taken in the marketization of the RMB exchange rate. In the future, the possibility of two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will increase, and there are basically no artificial restraints for the continuous appreciation of the RMB. This creates favorable conditions for the continuous appreciation of the RMB.
Second, China has basically gotten rid of the negative impact of the new crown epidemic, and its economic development momentum is second to none in the world. On the contrary, the economic recovery of European and American countries is slow, especially the situation in the United States is still quite severe, which makes the dollar continue. Hovering on the weak channel.
Obviously, due to China's fundamental economic support, the RMB exchange rate will continue to rise.
Third, another factor that has played a role in pushing up the exchange rate of the renminbi is the symposium jointly organized by the Central Bank and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission on November 12 on the theme of "the facilitation of trade and investment by enterprises using the renminbi across borders". A series of positive signals: The central bank stated that it has jointly formulated the "Notice on Further Optimizing Cross-border RMB Policies to Support Stabilization of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment" in conjunction with the Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Commerce, and SASAC. The policy documents will be issued soon.
This means that my country's financial market will be further opened to the outside world, and the offshore RMB market will also be vigorously developed. It will also promote the opening of the onshore RMB financial market and increase the capacity and depth of the offshore RMB financial market.
In particular, it will continue to adhere to the market-driven and independent choices of enterprises, continue to optimize the policy environment for the cross-border use of RMB, and improve the efficiency of RMB cross-border and offshore clearing.
At present, driven by market demand, the international use of the renminbi has made significant progress. The renminbi is already China’s second largest cross-border payment currency. Cross-border receipts and payments of the renminbi account for more than one-third of China’s cross-border receipts and payments in domestic and foreign currencies.
The RMB has joined the SDR currency basket and has become the world's fifth largest international payment currency and official foreign exchange reserve currency.
Fourth, and most importantly, on November 15th, the ten ASEAN countries and 15 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand formally signed RCEP, marking the official conclusion of the world's largest free trade agreement.
This will not only promote the construction of the ASEAN Economic Community, but also add new momentum to regional development and prosperity, and will become an important engine for global growth.
In particular, China, as the world's second largest economy, will undoubtedly become the core of RCEP, which will have a strong boosting effect on the economic and trade exchanges of RCEP countries and benefit participating countries.
At the same time, it also allows the RMB to play a more important role in the trade settlement and payment of RCEP participating countries, which will bring multiple benefits to promoting the increase of China's total import and export trade, attracting RCEP countries to invest in China, and increasing the demand for RMB from RCEP countries. This result will also give a certain boost to the continued upward trend of the RMB exchange rate.
In short, although the renminbi exchange rate has entered the 6.5 era, considering the prospects of import and export trade and policy factors, there is still room for subsequent appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate. It is expected that the trend of renminbi appreciation will not change, but the rate of appreciation will decline; especially the global epidemic Under the background of rebound and unabated risk sentiment, it is expected that the RMB will maintain a steady and strong trend under the support of fundamental advantages.
□Mo Kaiwei (financial commentator)