The IMF's examination of Spain: five years of crisis and Sánchez skips 6 of its 7 recommendations

He had it so tied that

voted against the amendments to the entirety of his Budget project for 2021 by telematic means, like most of his ministers.

And if they had been forgotten, nothing would have happened either because even a Vox deputy,

, made a mistake and voted alongside the Socialists.

In the end, the result was 150 votes in favor of knocking down the Budget and 198 to save it.

A majority as incoherent as it is overwhelming that will have to manage the end of the coronavirus and the damage it leaves from the outset, as the in-depth examination of the International Monetary Fund's mission to Spain pointed out the following day: “It will probably take several years to reach the pre-pandemic level of production. '

How many years?

It has gone unnoticed, but the IMF has decided to incorporate a new forecast scenario for Spain that is more "adverse" than in September in case, among other factors, the Government notes "a failure to control outbreaks."

"New economic shocks and a tightening of financing conditions would arise due to concerns about company accounts."

"Under these circumstances, real GDP will stagnate in 2021" and would not return to 2019 levels until 2025. In other words, a five-year crisis in which debt would touch 140% of GDP, 20 points more than expected now .

It is a monstrous debt that the Spanish banks could not buy

, which, according to the IMF, is already at the bottom of the Eurozone in capital strength and which already dedicates 7% of its assets to Spanish Treasury bonds.

Too much tied to sovereign risk in the opinion of the IMF mission.

This, however, continues to maintain as a "central scenario" a recovery in Spain from 2023 but without being able to return to the unemployment rate of 2019 (14.1%) or in 2025, in which it forecasts 14.2% , as long as the other "adverse scenario" does not materialize.

.

In view of the «fragmented Parliament», the IMF mission sees «high risk» for the Spanish economy, because «the possible lack or reversal of the reforms and the uncertainty about the deficit situation in the medium term could weaken confidence, investment , and employment, which negatively affects the dynamics of public debt and could trigger adverse reactions in the market.

And that the IMF technicians wrote the report before the soup of parties that have supported Sánchez to harvest in the amendment process:

And even Bildu, who on Saturday started multiple concessions from the Navarrese Government with the icing on the cake of two million euros for the amendments they want.

With these partners it will be difficult to improve IMF reviews.

According to his report, of the seven economic policy recommendations he made to Sánchez in 2018, he has skipped six.

He asked for a reduction in the structural deficit "and it got worse before Covid-19."

He advised "growth-enhancing adjustment measures" and "no major measures have been introduced."

He urged him to maintain the pension system reforms of 2011 and 2013 to sustain it and "plans to re-link the rises to the CPI and repeal the sustainability factor."

Nor has it paid attention to making permanent contracts more attractive and introducing the so-called "Austrian backpack."

On his advice to favor labor mobility, "he has not taken any measures";

and only "limited" on strengthening market unity.

That of planning an improvement in active employment policies has been followed, they say.

Bulgaria yes, but Spain, no

Nadia Calviño

received the IMF envoys, but has been unfortunate that they have published their report on Spain at the same time as that of Bulgaria with depressing differences.

The IMF congratulates

for "having faced the pandemic with a budget surplus and credibility."

And he points out that since the virus will not generate a deficit beyond 4%, the remuneration for pensioners and officials may increase.

Quite the opposite in Spain.

With a deficit this year of 14%, it insists that not only will it not be able to finance itself for years without the ECB [permanent bailout], but that it requires "a post-Covid budgetary adjustment."

And to support that adjustment, which the IMF places no later than next fall for the 2022 Budgets, to see who remains of those who supported Sánchez on Thursday.

The ephemeris

DURO FELGUERA TURNS OFF

The historic industrial company that has its origins in 1858 may not reach 2021. Duro Felguera shuts down and his last hold is the support of the State Society for Industrial Participations (Sepi), because the board of directors has refused to let him keep it businessman Blas Herrero.

The president of Duro Felguera, Rosa Aza, does not believe that Herrero has the financing or the necessary industrial project and has written to the vice president of the Government, Nadia Calviño, to unblock the stuck negotiation with the Sepi.

But the Galician minister has not answered Aza for ten days and the Asturian president, Adrián Barbón, dismissed Duro's board of directors yesterday in La Nueva España when asking that Sepi be the one to examine whether Herrero's option is valid.

The president of the company believes that the best is direct temporary support from Sepi, but time is running out.

Character

FIFTH, REACTION IN ABENGOA

The former deputy of Citizens and former world vice president of Coca-Cola, Marcos de Quinto, can become the new president of Abengoa this Tuesday, if the play goes well for the minorities.

It has 14% of capital that groups together more than 1,350 shareholders before a notary public, above any other partner.

The group that supports De Quinto maintains that the current president, Gonzalo Urquijo, has ignored them and that his clash against the Junta de Andalucía has been absurd.

The plan is to change some parts of its viability plan to save the historic Spanish energy company and try to make De Quinto president already on the 17th in an extraordinary meeting.

They also promise to eliminate the bonus for Urquijo and his executives worth 60 million expected in an astonishing way while the company is asking for a public rescue.

It is a reaction, but the situation is extreme.

To follow

THE CHRISTMAS CAMPAIGN, KEY

The first year in office of the president of El Corte Inglés, Marta Álvarez, could not have been more convulsive.

As if the structural challenges faced by this large Spanish company against Amazon and other new competitors were few, the pandemic has dealt a severe blow to its business model.

The bank responded before the state of alarm with a refinancing of 2,000 million and El Corte Inglés has continued to successfully place corporate bonds that have provided liquidity in these months of falling income, but the new mobility restriction measures complicate the outlook.

El Corte Inglés is an emblematic example of what so many companies need, and it is to set something straight for the year with the crucial Christmas campaign.

Better measures now that save December, but the so-called co-governance does not work against the virus.

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