China News Service, November 16th, National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui responded on the 16th on the economic trends in the fourth quarter and the whole year.

He said that the steady recovery of economic operations is continuing. From the perspective of the next stage, there are still many foundations and favorable conditions for sustained economic recovery.

Data map: Production scene in a manufacturing company.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo

　　The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 16th to introduce the operation of the national economy in October 2020.

At the meeting, a reporter asked: The October data show that China's economic recovery is still continuing. Please predict the economic trend in the fourth quarter and the whole year.

May I ask, if the rate of recovery of consumption continues to be lower than that of industrial output, will it increase the pressure of deflation?

　　Fu Linghui made the above statement in response to this question.

　　Fu Linghui pointed out that from a demand perspective, investment growth this month has picked up steadily.

Whether it is infrastructure investment, real estate investment or manufacturing investment, they are all picking up.

Judging from the leading indicators of investment, the total planned investment in new projects continued to increase year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9% this month.

From the perspective of capital security, the fixed asset investment funds in place increased by 6% year-on-year from January to October, and the state of capital security is also good, indicating that the rebound in investment is expected to continue.

　　From the perspective of consumption, with the restoration of production and living order, the prospects for consumption are also increasing.

The employment situation continued to improve this month, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, which was lower than last month.

The improvement in employment is conducive to the growth of residents' income. In the first three quarters, national residents' disposable income, after deducting price factors, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which is also picking up.

This is conducive to the continuous improvement of consumption power.

At the same time, the domestic epidemic prevention and control has achieved major phased results, the domestic consumption environment is improving, and everyone's consumer confidence is increasing.

During the "Eleventh" period, both the number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue have also been significantly improved and increased, and box office revenue has also recovered to more than 70% of the same period last year.

　　From the perspective of production, industrial production has achieved relatively rapid growth.

October increased by 6.9% year-on-year, and stabilized at a relatively rapid level of 6.9% for two consecutive months, 2.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year, indicating that the demand for production is increasing.

The growth of industrial production is also expanding. As mentioned earlier, 34 of the 41 major industries have achieved growth.

　　From the perspective of the service industry, the same is true.

Driven by domestic demand, both the producer service industry and the life service industry have seen significant improvements.

Seven of the eight major industries in the service industry production index have achieved growth. The improved situation means that the recovery of production can continue.

　　From the perspective of business expectations, both the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing business activity index have stabilized above 50% for eight consecutive months, and the non-manufacturing business activity index has reached a new high this year.

Judging from these circumstances, the economic stability recovery can be sustained and maintained.

The effectiveness of a series of policies to help companies and financial support for the real economy introduced this year will continue to play. The annual tax reduction and fee reduction are expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, and financial support for the real economy may also reach 1.5 More than one trillion yuan.

Based on the preliminary judgment of these factors, the growth in the fourth quarter may be further accelerated than in the second and third quarters.

　　Regarding the price situation, Fu Linghui said that price is not only closely related to economic operations, but also closely related to people's lives.

Judging from this year, various regions and departments have increased their efforts to insure prices and stabilize supply. From the perspective of price trends, the growth rate of about 5% at the beginning of the year fell to 0.5% in October, especially the decline in food prices.

This is good for the basic life of the residents and has a positive effect on people's livelihood.

　　Fu Linghui pointed out that from the perspective of economic operation, consumer prices fell more this month than last month. Last month CPI rose 1.7% year-on-year, and this month rose 0.5% year-on-year.

From a structural point of view, the price fall was mainly due to changes in food prices.

Food prices rose by 7.9% year-on-year last month and fell back to 2.2% this month. The main factor for this change is the adjustment of pork prices.

Pork prices rose by 25.5% year-on-year last month, affecting about 1% of the current month’s CPI.

This month, pork prices fell 2.8% year-on-year, which was a drop of 0.13 percentage points.

On the one hand, this change has something to do with last year's base, and on the other hand, it has something to do with the increase in pig production and supply this year.

Due to the constraints of production and supply of pork last year, the price of pork has risen sharply since the fourth quarter of last year, resulting in a relatively high base since the fourth quarter of last year.

Judging from this year's situation, due to the continuous increase in the production and supply of live pigs in various regions and departments since the beginning of the year, this month's pork price ended its 19-month year-on-year increase and saw its first decline.

　　Fu Linghui said that another factor is the decline in tail-lifting factors.

Last month, the carryover factor affected the CPI by 1.2 percentage points. This month only 0.4 percentage points, a drop of 0.8 percentage points.

Excluding changes in food prices, non-food prices were flat year-on-year in October and were also flat last month, indicating that the price situation has not changed significantly except for food prices.

Taking a closer look, after deducting the core CPI for food and energy, it was 0.5% this month, which has been stable at 0.5% for four consecutive months, indicating that, except for food prices, other price situations remain generally stable.

According to preliminary judgment, the price situation has not undergone fundamental changes.

　　As for the price trend in the later period, Fu Linghui said that on the one hand, there are factors that promote price increases. As the double festival approaches in the later period, some seasonal factors in food demand may be driven. At the same time, the domestic economy is picking up. A certain pull.

Specifically, for example, the price of services rose by 0.3% year-on-year this month and 0.2% year-on-year last month. The increase has also expanded by 0.1%.

There are also some downward factors in the price trend. Pork prices have been on the rise last year, coupled with the increase in pork supply, which may have a certain downward trend in price trends.

At the same time, because prices are still affected by international factors, the current rise in the secondary impact of the international epidemic still has great uncertainty about the impact on the global commodity market. Whether it will cause imported deflation remains to be seen.

So in general, the price trend needs further observation.