China-Singapore Jingwei Client, November 12 (Dai Congfei) On the 11th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in October.

The data shows that the October CPI growth rate of 27 provinces fell below 1%, and that of Hubei was 0.

27 provinces CPI fell below "1"

  In October, the national CPI rose by 0.5% year-on-year. Since March 2017, it has broken “1” again for the first time in 42 months.

In terms of provinces, the year-on-year increase in CPI in 27 provinces including Hubei, Guangdong, and Hebei fell below 1%, and the year-on-year increase in CPI in Tibet, Qinghai, and Gansu was between 1% and 2%. Only Yunnan Province stayed in the “second era”.

  In October, the year-on-year increase of CPI in 16 provinces was higher than the national average. Yunnan, Tibet, and Qinghai ranked in the top three. It is noteworthy that the CPI of Yunnan Province ranked the highest among 31 provinces for three consecutive months. Its CPI in August and September They are 4.3% and 3.7% respectively.

In addition, the growth rates of Tianjin, Fujian, Chongqing, and Xinjiang were the same as the whole country.

The increase in CPI of 11 provinces was lower than that of the whole country, among which Hubei was 0.

Pork prices fell for the first time

  In October, the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 2.4% year-on-year, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.76%.

It is worth mentioning that pork prices fell for the first time after 19 consecutive months of rising year-on-year, down 2.8%; the prices of eggs, chicken, and duck dropped by 18.3%, 13.2%, and 6.5% year-on-year, respectively, showing an expanding trend.

  The prices of the other seven categories rose three times and four fell.

Among them, the prices of other supplies and services, medical care, education, culture, and entertainment rose by 2.4%, 1.5%, and 1.1%; the prices of transportation, communications, and housing fell by 3.9% and 0.7%, and the prices of clothing, daily necessities, and services fell by 0.3%. % And 0.1%.

  Source: Screenshot of the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

  Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in food, the production capacity of live pigs has continued to recover, and the supply of pork has continued to improve.

  Political Commissar Lu, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that driven by the high profits of pig farming in the early stage, the expansion of pig farming production capacity led to a rebound in pig supply.

The slaughter volume of pigs in September recorded the first positive increase since January 2019 year-on-year, leading to the first negative increase in pork prices since February 2019 in October.

CPI may continue to fall in November

  For future price trends, many institutions expect the CPI to continue to decline in November.

  Soochow Securities expects that the CPI growth rate will continue to fall in November. The analysis pointed out that in terms of food items, pork prices have entered a downward channel, but the fourth quarter is the peak season for pork demand. The decline in pork prices should be relatively limited. Due to seasonal factors and mismatches between supply and demand, fresh fruit Prices of fresh vegetables and other items are expected to remain stable.

In terms of non-food items, the peak travel season has passed, and the increase in air tickets and hotel prices is expected to fall. The epidemic is still likely to rebound. Demand for non-essential consumer goods is expected to recover slowly, and the price increase of non-food items will encounter a ceiling effect.

  Haitong Securities believes that since November, pork prices have dropped significantly, vegetable prices have fallen, and fruit prices have remained relatively stable.

Pig prices are expected to continue to fall under the relief of supply pressure, and the CPI continued to fall to zero in November compared to the same period last year.

  Galaxy Securities further stated that the carry-over effect in November will affect 0.1%, and the new price increase factor is expected to be around 0.1%, and the year-on-year increase in CPI will be around 0.2%.

It is estimated that the CPI in 2020 will be around 2.6%, and the CPI in 2021 will be around 1.9%.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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