On Monday, November 9, the Russian currency is confidently strengthening on the Moscow Exchange.
During the trades, the dollar fell by 2.1% and for the first time since September 22 it reached 75.75 rubles.
At the same time, the euro rate fell by 2.4%, to 89.8 rubles.
The last time a similar indicator was observed on September 25.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on November 10 was set at 76.95 rubles per dollar and 91.5 rubles per euro.
The Russian securities market also shows positive dynamics.
In the second half of the day, the Moscow Exchange index grew by 3% - up to 2983 points, and the RTS index - by 5%, up to 1237 points.
Values have peaked since mid-September.
The appreciation of the national currency and Russian stocks occurred against the backdrop of a record jump in oil prices.
So, on November 9, the cost of raw materials of the Brent reference brand on the ICE exchange in London grew by more than 10% and at the moment rose to $ 43.47 per barrel.
Investors reacted positively to the news of the successful completion of trials of a vaccine against coronavirus by the American pharmaceutical corporation Pfizer and the bioengineering company BioNTech.
According to a press release published on Monday, the developed drug has been found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19.
The US vaccine registration is expected in November.
“The news about the emergence of a new vaccine is favorable for the oil market, as it reduces the likelihood of increased quarantines in different countries and a repeated collapse in global demand for energy resources.
Taking into account the possibility of vaccinating people, the restoration of global oil consumption to normal levels may not take 2-3 years, as previously assumed, but a shorter period, "Vitaly Gromadin, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, explained in a conversation with RT.
According to experts, support for the Russian financial market was also provided by the general optimism on the world stock markets.
On Monday, trading in Asia closed with growth of stock quotes by 1-2%, European indices in the middle of the day added 5-8%, and key indicators of the US stock market during the opening of the session grew by 1-4%.
In addition to the announcement of the creation of a new vaccine against coronavirus, market participants reacted positively to the preliminary results of the US presidential election.
Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert of the Center for Political Technologies, expressed this point of view in a conversation with RT.
“Although there was no official announcement yet, investors believed in Biden's victory and began to plan their strategies for the future.
According to the players, the new US president will pursue a softer policy in trade disputes with China, as well as a more predictable policy towards other developing countries.
Time will tell to what extent this assessment is really fair, but the market reversal that has taken place is still supporting the ruble, ”Maslennikov stressed.
According to experts, the actions of the Bank of Russia are still in favor of the ruble.
Recall that in order to stabilize the exchange rate from March 10, the regulator began proactive sale of foreign currency in the domestic market.
Thus, the Central Bank artificially increases the demand for rubles.
In total, during this time, the volume of currency sales exceeded 1.42 trillion rubles.
Meanwhile, analysts interviewed by RT assess the possible changes in the ruble dynamics by the end of the year differently.
As the chief analyst of the TeleTrade Group of Companies Pyotr Pushkarev told RT, if oil prices continue to rise to $ 45 per barrel, the dollar exchange rate may soon drop to 75 rubles and below.
At the same time, according to Artyom Tuzov, executive director of the capital market department at Univer Capital, the observed investor optimism may turn out to be short-term.
“The creation of vaccines may solve the coronavirus problem, and countries will refrain from introducing new quarantine restrictions.
At the same time, the recovery of the global economy will take a long time and will require the restructuring of the entire world system.
Therefore, market growth may not last long, since economics has not yet come up with a cure for overcoming the current crisis, ”Tuzov said.
Against this background, the expert does not exclude the possibility of another weakening of the national currency in the near future.
According to him, by the end of the year the dollar exchange rate may rise again to the level of 80-85 rubles, and the euro rate - to the level of 95 rubles.
Meanwhile, according to Vitaly Gromadin's forecast, by the beginning of 2021 the values may return to the ranges of 73-76 rubles per dollar and 87-90 rubles per euro.