There are more than ten yuan per catty of pork in Chengdu, and the live pigs are still on the way.


Can you make more sausage and bacon this year?

　　Since September, live pig prices have fallen for 12 consecutive weeks, and pork prices have also plummeted.

The Red Star Capital Bureau found that residents in many parts of the country ate more than ten yuan a catty of pork.

Analysts pointed out that the recent drop in pork prices is mainly due to the increase in the supply of live pigs.

In December, the peak demand for cured meats is in peak season. As live pigs are released for slaughter at the end of the year, pork prices will continue to decline in general.

　　At present, the number of reproductive sows in the country has recovered to 50% to 60% of the pre-African swine fever. It is expected to be fully restored by the end of 2021. With the release of production capacity in 2020, there is room for further reduction in pork prices.

It is estimated that the high point of the white striped pig price in 2021 will be 36.6 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year; the low point will be 25.92 yuan/kg in November.

　　How much has dropped

　　Pork prices fell more than 20% in the past two months

　　Affected by the pig cycle and African swine fever, the price of pork has risen to 40 yuan per catty since last year, discouraging the public.

However, pork prices have continued to fall recently, and citizens in many parts of the country have eaten more than ten yuan a catty of pork.

The reporter saw the latest pork price on the screen in a fresh supermarket in Jinjiang District, Chengdu: skin-on pork belly 28.8 yuan/kg, pork foreleg at 19.61 yuan/kg, and pork loin 18.7 yuan/kg... the sales staff told Reporter, in November pork dropped significantly, consumers can intuitively feel.

　　In Renrenle Supermarket, the price of stewed soup bones is reduced to less than 20 yuan per catty, stick bones are only 10.99 yuan per catty, and the front legs and hind legs only cost 19.9 yuan per catty.

Granny Chen bought a catty and a half of pork fillings at a price of 16.99 yuan per catty.

She passed on experience to reporters: "Before it was still more than 20 kilograms. This is the cheapest one I have encountered this year. I took advantage of the event and bought it quickly. We will make sausage and bacon later. The price is estimated to rise again.

　　According to monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of the fourth week of October, live pig prices have fallen for 12 consecutive weeks.

As of November 4, the latest price was 39.4 yuan/kg, a cumulative decrease of 18.88% from the 48.57 yuan/kg on August 27.

　　Pork prices have fallen by more than 20% in the past two months.

According to data from Zhuochuang Information, as of November 5, the average price of slaughter pigs outside the country was 29.84 yuan/kg, a cumulative decrease of 9 yuan/kg from the previous high (38.84 yuan/kg on July 8). 23.17%.

　　Why fell

　　Live pig production capacity resumed, pork supply increased

　　"The price of pork has fallen, mainly due to the recovery of live pig production capacity and the increase in pork supply. In addition, the slaughterhouse has also made appropriate price cuts to ensure the supply of goods." Wang Yanan, a senior analyst in the pig industry of Zhuo Chuang Information, told reporters.

"According to Zhuochuang's monitoring, the current pig production capacity in the north has returned to 70% to 80% of that before African swine fever and 50% to 60% in the south." According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the first three quarters, my country has newly built 12,500 large-scale pig farms. A large-scale pig farm with 13,400 empty pens was rebred.

By the end of September, the national live pig inventory reached 370 million, which was restored to 84% at the end of 2017; the breeding sow population reached 38.22 million, which was restored to 86% at the end of 2017.

　　In addition to the recovery of live pig production, the introduction of imported pork and central reserve meat also increased the supply of pork in the market and stabilized pork prices.

Data show that from January to September this year, my country imported 3.286 million tons of pork, a year-on-year increase of 132.2%.

As of the end of September, the central reserve of frozen pork had been put in 35 times during the year, and the cumulative put in amount reached 600,000 tons.

On November 7, Wang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Market Operations and Consumption Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at the 3rd China International Import Expo that it is expected that the pork supply situation will continue to improve in the later period, and it is expected to return to normal levels in the second half of 2021.

　　Wang Bin introduced that the current pork price has been lower than the level of the same period last year. Although it is still high, it has fallen rapidly.

The current Chinese meat market has gradually overcome the impact of the African swine fever and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the overall operation is stable and better than expected.

At present, China's meat production is steadily recovering, the supply capacity is gradually increasing, and the live pig stock continues to rise.

　　Future trend

　　The number of slaughters doubled in December, and prices still have room for decline

　　"Although the supply of live pigs is restored, the price of pork will not fall to the'cabbage price' all the way." Wang Yanan pointed out, "There are hard constraints on the cost of pig breeding, and companies cannot breed at a loss. The price of live pigs of 10-13 yuan/kg is for breeding companies. The'lifeline' of (self-reproduction and self-support)."

　　Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that pork prices may fluctuate due to changes in demand at the end of the year, but the chance of a rebound in the end is unlikely.

"The peak demand season for cured meat in December has arrived, and market supply and demand has increased. According to historical estimates, the demand for pork in December this year increased by 20%-30% from the previous month." At the same time, the supply of pork has increased even more.

"Small groups and retail investors will be slaughtered at the end of the year, and the slaughter plan will be completed. It is expected that the number of live pigs will increase by 50%-100%. In addition, large pigs specially raised for cured meat products will also be slaughtered at the end of the year and early next year."

　　Wang Yanan said that with the continuous recovery of production capacity, without the influence of external factors such as African swine fever, the price of live pigs may show a volatile downward trend in the later period.

“There is still room for further decline in pork prices next year. At the end of 2021, breeding sows will return to their pre-African swine fever levels, and the production capacity will be fully released in 2022. It is estimated that the price of white striped pigs in 2021 will be 36.6 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year; The low point was 25.92 yuan/kg in November."

　　Liu Yonghao, chairman of the New Hope Group, previously told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the dual impact of African swine fever and the new crown epidemic has led to a decline in China's pig production.

Under this pattern, companies have invested heavily in the pig industry, and the state has also given policy encouragement and support. Now the supply of live pigs is gradually recovering.

"With technological advancement, organization in place and a large amount of capital investment, the production capacity of breeding sows and fattening pigs is in the process of recovery. It is possible that pork prices will gradually return to normal prices after the middle of next year, and people across the country will definitely be able to enjoy it. Good quality pork at the right price."

　　Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News Reporter Wu Danruo