The disclosure of the third quarterly reports of public funds and listed companies has been completed-
Tracking A-share investment style has a "road map"
Economic Daily·China Economic Net reporter Zhou Lin
In the past three months, although the major stock indexes in the A-share market have not seen a sharp drop, the performance of the White Horse stock has declined significantly, and the market has not made good money.
For many investors, is it to "cut the meat" to stop loss, or to hold it firmly?
A few days ago, the disclosure of the three quarterly reports of public funds and listed companies was completed, and a "road map" of A-share investment style was sent to everyone.
As of November 2, listed companies and public funds have disclosed the third quarter report.
Judging from the "transcripts" from July to September this year, the investment style of public funds has undergone major changes. Some white horse stocks in the liquor, communications and other industries have been affected by lower than expected performance, and their share prices have begun to fall.
In the context of the market's urgent need for decision-making reference, the "roadmap" of institutional positions and investment styles disclosed in the third quarterly report is becoming more and more valuable.
"Holding together for warmth" is no longer alive?
Another batch of white horse stocks collapsed.
From October 27th to November 2nd, after high-end stocks such as Fuling Mustard and Kweichow Moutai plummeted due to performance disclosures, Yili shares, Tsingtao Brewery and other consumer white horse stocks also started to fall, involving technology, medicine, food and beverage, etc. Multiple industries.
According to the third quarterly report of the fund and the third quarterly report of listed companies, public funds, private equity funds, social security funds and other institutions have big differences when they look at the "Baotuan" white horse stocks.
GF Securities analyst Zheng Kai believes that in the third quarter, most funds increased their positions in cyclical stocks, financial and real estate stocks, and lightened their positions in technology and consumer stocks. The overall investment style of the fund began to switch from being mainly growth stocks to a value style represented by white horse stocks.
Huaxi Securities analyst Yi Bin believes that the market style switching and industry configuration (investment) clock rotation shown in the third quarterly report are normal and not frequent short-term switching.
The adjustment of positions by some institutions is following the trend. In the future, the phenomenon of fund gathering and deploying a small number of high-performance stocks to "report the group for warmth" may remain the norm.
However, there are also many funds that refuse to "group together" and instead have a soft spot for high-performance small-cap stocks and leading growth stocks.
The third quarterly report of listed companies shows that public funds continue to increase positions in some star companies on the ChiNext. ChiNext refers to the top 30% of the company's market capitalization to a record high, from 4.87% in the second quarter to 5.5%, an overweight of 3.2%.
For example, CATL, one of the leading stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market, was the 12th largest stock held by the fund in the third quarter. The number of public funds holding this stock has increased by 103 from the end of the second quarter.
In terms of overall position levels, the positions of active equity mutual funds have declined. The positions of ordinary equity funds and partial-equity hybrid funds are 86.14% and 84.54% respectively, which are down from the second quarter, but the overall position is still high.
Xingquan’s business model optimization fund manager moved to believe that in the third quarter, some public offering funds reduced their holdings of stocks with a large range increase and whose stock prices reflected more fundamental fundamentals. At the same time, they increased their holdings of some short-term fundamentals that are still under pressure, and their stock prices have been more reflected. Sufficient and long-term targets with outstanding fundamental values.
The core logic of such style switching is the matching of fundamentals and valuation levels in the long-term dimension.
Investors should remain patient and believe in the return of value in the long-term dimension.
Cai Bin, Deputy Director of Investment Growth Group of Bosera Equity Investment, said that in the context of economic transformation, the A-share market as a whole will fluctuate exponentially in the future, and the market will still be dominated by structural opportunities. Industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading are two major layout directions that deserve attention. .
The performance of the sectors in the third quarter diverged greatly. The previous period of growth was relatively high. The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and pharmaceutical sectors with historically high valuations lagging behind to a certain extent. In line with changes in investment style and logic.
"Copy homework" to "smart" funds
Social security funds, QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors), insurance funds, and the "Northward Funds" that distribute A shares through interconnection channels are hailed as "smart" funds.
The position movement of these funds in the third quarter is generally an important option for individual investors to "copy homework".
The third quarterly report of listed companies shows that there are 18 social security funds holding more than 100 million shares, and the largest social security fund holding is Agricultural Bank, which holds 23.521 billion shares.
From the perspective of the industry, the shares held by the social security fund are mainly concentrated in the pharmaceutical and biological, chemical and electronic industries.
Compared with the concentrated shareholding of social security funds, the industries in which QFII are deployed seem to be more scattered.
In the third quarter, QFII appeared in the list of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares of 415 listed companies, with a total stock market value of 115.251 billion yuan. They mainly prefer chemical, mechanical equipment, electronics, medical and biological, and computer industries, involving individual stocks. The numbers are 42, 41, 39, 31, and 30 respectively.
The "Northbound Funds" that deploy A-shares through Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect prefer consumer stocks and technology stocks.
Since October, "Northward Capital" has increased its holdings of more than 1 million shares in more than 10 stocks including Luxshare Precision, Meiya Biotech, and Sunlord Electronics.
On the whole, the more than 10 listed companies favored by "Northward Capital" are mainly divided into two categories: one is the second-tier consumer stocks in the food and beverage and automobile industries, and the other is cyclical stocks that have achieved high growth in performance.
For example, at the end of the third quarter of Yanjing Beer’s "Northward Capital" holdings were relatively high.
According to the data released by the stock exchange, Yanjing Beer held only 25.38 million shares of Beijing Capital at the end of June. In just one quarter, the number of shares held by Beijing Capital increased several times.
In terms of insurance funds, in the third quarter, there were 242 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in the top ten shareholders of tradable shares. The total stock market value reached 1.25 trillion yuan.
In terms of different industries, the main industries in which insurance funds are deployed are chemical, pharmaceutical and biological, mechanical equipment, electronics, and computer industries. Technology stocks have become a new highlight of insurance funds in the third quarter.
Pan Helin, executive dean of the Institute of Digital Economy, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said that A-shares are gradually realizing value investment, and market hotspots have moved closer to actual needs.
Institutional investors such as social security funds, QFIIs and insurance funds generally choose more stable targets, and investors can allocate funds based on their "smart" fund positions.
However, we still need to judge based on the fundamentals of specific companies. The key products of these "smart" funds may not immediately rise in stock prices. When selecting stocks, "smart" funds pay more attention to medium and long-term performance rather than short-term market performance. Investors It can focus on whether these companies have performance support and whether they have definite growth in the future.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, believes that the choice of "smart" funds in the third quarter fully shows that with the acceleration of capital market reforms, the A-share market has gradually shifted to value investment, and more and more investors have realized that only persistence Value investment and good company shareholders can seize market opportunities.
From the perspective of market structure, the current proportion of institutional investors has increased. Institutions have favored White Horse stocks, and the holding period has been significantly longer. Many stocks have been held by institutions for more than 5 years, demonstrating the investment habits of long-term value investment. .
Whether it is domestic institutions, QFIIs or "Northbound funds", they generally like to hold these outstanding white horse stocks for a long time, that is, to trade time for space, enjoy the long-term value-added of these companies, and obtain better returns.
Don't put eggs in a basket
The assets that listed companies make money in the third quarter are not only stocks.
If a certain type of asset has a poor earning effect, can other assets be considered?
Jinniu Financial Network analyst Gong Manlin believes that under the current volatile A-share market, the use of a diversified investment thinking of large-scale asset allocation can avoid the investment risk of "all losses and losses".
Excellent investors should have a better grasp of the proportion and pace of asset allocation such as stocks, bonds, and commodities.
According to data on the asset structure of public funds released by CICC, the total equity assets in the third quarter rose from 3.4 trillion yuan in the first half of the year to 4.2 trillion yuan, and the proportion of total fund assets rose from 19% to 23% in the first half of the year; bonds; Such assets dropped from 8.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the year to 8.6 trillion yuan, and the proportion of fund assets fell from 50% to 46%.
Simply put, from the perspective of major asset allocation, public funds began to "abandon debt and choose stocks" in the third quarter.
In the third quarter, many listed company reports mentioned investment in wealth management products and equity funds.
Liu Min, an analyst at Caixin Securities, believes that according to the current economic cycle, the third quarter is the recovery period of the economic cycle, and the recovery period allocation order given by the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock should be stocks, bonds, cash, and commodities.
In this regard, investors should pay more attention to bonds and stocks.
From the perspective of income, the income contribution of the asset allocation portfolio in the third quarter mainly came from equity assets, and bond assets became a drag on income contribution.
It is expected that in the fourth quarter of this year, stocks and commodity assets will still be dominant, the probability of gold volatility will be high, and bonds will be under short-term pressure.