There is a movie released in 2010 called The Blind Side. It is also the work that awarded the famous actress Sandra Brock the Oscar and Golden Gloves Best Actress. The first scene of this film begins with a terrible accident that actually happened in the 1985 American football game.
The moment Joe Tysman, who was called the best quarterback at the time, tries to pass the ball
, a very strong tackle enters his'back
left
'. Lawrence Taylor, a new defender at the time, succeeded in defending what he called'Sack'. But in one defense, Tysman's bones were shattered, and that day became his last game as a player.
Suppose you are throwing a ball with your right hand, like Tysman. This will give you enough visibility from the front to the right back. On the other hand, the back of the left and back of the head is not visible at all.
A dead space that our vision cannot reach, that is, the'blind side' occurs.
(※ In actual American football, the square that the quarterback cannot see is also called the'blind side', but after the Tysman accident, the salary of the defenders defending this'blind side' of the quarterback has been very high.)
1. The first angle: marketing market
is
rectangular (死角, Dead Space)
is an important advance for the effort you want to take care of Silk is not only sports.
Government policies that directly or indirectly affect the real life of the whole people will be of much greater importance.
From that point of view, the blind spot of the government ruling party, which has been leading the real estate policy, has been very large and deep.
I saw only what I could see, and didn't dare to see the invisible part.
And the price was terrible.
Let's take a quick look at the real estate policy that the government has implemented over the past year in chronological order.
Increased loan regulations and tax burdens in order to catch the price of a house in Gangnam, Seoul → Rising house prices in Gangbuk areas such as'Ma, Yong, Seong,''No, Do, and River' → Expanded regulations in Gangbuk →'Su, Yong, Seong (Suwon, Suwon) Yongin·Seongnam)' increase in house prices →'Su, Yong, Seong' re-regulation → Expanding the'balloon effect' to the entire metropolitan area, Sejong, and Chungcheong → Expanding the overall regulation of the metropolitan area → Re-inflow of floating funds to Seoul
Simply see
<regulation → balloon effect → Regulation → Expansion of the balloon effect → Regulation → The inverse balloon effect>
This fragmentary vicious cycle was repeated.
To put it good, it is the result of symptomatic therapy, which is prescribed according to the symptoms, and badly, it is the result of the mole game regulation.
While struggling to catch the visible target, that is, expensive and multi-homed people, may I have missed the blind spot behind it?
It is not a question of not making a policy for high-priced and multi-homed people, but rather asking whether the side effects that may occur in the process have been sufficiently considered.
2. Second square: The first
goal was for high-priced housing and multi-households in the
jeonse market
, while the second goal was to
stabilize housing
for the
common people (
pre-generation
plan)
.
Most of the people believe that both are policies that should be pursued.
The key is how to do it,'methodology'.
Unfortunately, the government ruling party did not learn enough lessons from the first failure.
While trying to achieve the common people's housing stability (pre-generational plan), they did not see the'squares' behind them again.
In July, when the circulating funds that had gone to the metropolitan area returned to Seoul and stimulated the outlying mid-to-low-end apartment market, the government's ruling party'boldly' enforced the Housing Lease Protection Act.
Criticism continued for not having enough simulations, but the 180-seat ruling party was brave and full of confidence.
Three months after that, a megaton-level change came in the jeonse market.
As more and more landlords prefer to rent a monthly rent or reverse tax, the number of sales has decreased significantly, and the government's previous policies, such as strengthening loan regulations, mandated rehabilitation, and upper sales price limit, acted in a negative direction to raise the rent for the preferred area.
When the seeds were dry, the common people shouted "Thirty thousand ri in search of the predecessor."
In a situation where there is no supply but there are many people looking for it, the total price of course is bound to skyrocket.
Last week, the rent for apartments in Seoul, surveyed by Real Estate 114, rose 0.19% from the previous week, recording the largest increase since the first week of November 2015.
In Gyeonggi-do, Incheon, and the new city, the total price of the new city also increased by 0.13% and 0.12%, respectively.
Unrest in the jeonse market is expanding beyond Seoul to the entire metropolitan area.
The imbalance between jeonse supply and demand is also the worst ever.
The Seoul Apartment Charter Supply and Demand Index released by the Korea Appraisal Board recorded 130.1, the highest since 2012 when related statistics were prepared.
Even in 2013 and 2015, which were referred to as the period of the'jeonse turmoil', the jeonse supply and demand index did not exceed the maximum of 120.9 and 125.2.
In conclusion, the statistics are saying firmly.
"Right now is the'worst predecessor' ever!"
It is.
Nam-ki Hong, a'Mapo-gu chartered refugee, who gave back money for moving expenses to tenants, wonders how he would view this comedy-like reality.
3. The third square: full set value ↑ →
market
value ↑ The
real estate market is a complex system of many elements.
Certain events must necessarily influence other factors.
Where the soaring jeonse price affected, that was again the house price.
The rise in rental prices is what fuels the rise in housing prices for mid- to low-priced apartments.
There is a cycle of evil between so-called jeonse and trading.
The stable trading market became unstable when the jeonse crisis spread after the 3rd Lease Act was implemented.
In fact, last week the price of apartments in Seoul rose by 0.06%, with Gangdong (0.21%), Gangseo (0.13%), Gwanak (0.13%), Guro (0.13%), Dobong (0.12%), Jung-gu (0.10%), and Nowon (0.09%). ), and the outskirts of mid- to low-priced apartments showed a remarkable rise.
In the metropolitan area, housing prices are rising sharply in the unregulated areas of Gimpo and Paju.
The trading supply and demand index of Gyeongui-gu, which includes Gimpo, Goyang, and Paju, rose 12.1 points from Jeonju (113.6) to 125.7.
This is the highest ever.
Gimpo City rose a whopping 1.94% during the same period, breaking the record high.
What this phenomenon means is simple and clear.
"I'd rather buy a mid- to low-priced apartment by adding a little more if I'm worried about the jeonse deposit that surges every two years!"
Is that.
The higher total set value pushes up the selling price, centering on the mid- to low-end market.
The fact that house prices are rising in metropolitan cities such as Busan, Daejeon, and Daegu following Seoul and the metropolitan area indicates that tomorrow will be darker and more depressing than today.
Despite this situation, a ruling party lawmaker
immediately
proposed an amendment to the Housing Lease Protection Act, which extends the tenant's residence period from the current 4 to 6 years
.
The contract renewal period needs to be extended, considering that the elementary and secondary school education period is 6 years each.
However, experts fear that charter sales will decline further, rent prices will rise further, and disputes will become more frequent.
Even if the purpose is good and desirable, the public is unfortunately asking if there are any blind spots that have not been seen, listened to the objections, and whether practical simulations have been sufficiently carried out
.
Proposing an initiative without such a process is beyond irresponsibility as a politician and makes us even doubt whether there is a basic concept of policy.
4. Square Four: The Rent Market
As I said earlier, the real estate market is a complex system.
Everything organically influences each other.
From that point of view, it's not that difficult to predict future problems.
Experts predict that the massive'blind spots' launched by the government will lead to the monthly rent market.
I wrote it as'outlook' with my personal wishes, but if you look at it calmly, I don't know if it has already become reality.
Looking at the housing price trend of last month released by the Appraisal Board on the 2nd, the
nationwide apartment rent price rose by 0.03%.
This is the highest rate ever since the statistics were first written in June 2015.
The rate of change in rent for apartments nationwide, which has been negative all the time, stopped falling in August, a month after the lease law was enforced.
And it rose by 0.02% in September, and last month the rise was even bigger.
Not only the monthly rent, but also the semi-monthly rent recorded the highest increase in history.
Last month, the half-month rent price for apartments in Seoul rose by 0.07%, which is 7 times higher than the previous 0.01%.
The rate of increase in the half-month rent price of apartments nationwide also recorded 0.12%.
Likewise, it's the highest ever since statistics were written.
Lee Chang-moo, professor at Hanyang University (Urban Real Estate Economics Laboratory), said, "The rise in monthly rent that has occurred recently is just beginning. It can be understood as a phenomenon that is only a precursor to the serious upward pressure in the monthly rent market."
At
this point,
"There is no countermeasure"
, there seems to be no need for further explanation.
Real estate policy, at least so far, has been neatly, undoubtedly, textbookly, and clearly'failed'.
This is why there are ridiculous criticisms of '23 at-bats without hits' and '23 games against 23 losses'.
Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki, Minister of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs Kim Hyun-mi, and Kim Sang-jo, head of the Blue House Policy Office, all bow their heads, saying, "I'm sorry."
Nevertheless, the people I met during the interview had an expectation in the heart.
"I'm sure it's still so, there will be no countermeasures made like this. President Moon Jae-in also promised.'I will surely stabilize the jeonse market.' Good measures will come out soon!"
It was none other than Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki, the highest control tower in Korea's economy, that shattered these expectations.
After receiving a question from the lawmakers at the National Assembly, he replied, "If there were any extraordinary measures, the government would have already done everything."
In a word, he confidently confessed (?) that there was no countermeasure.
To the question,'When will the jeonse countermeasures come out?', he answered that it is difficult to specify a date.
It was an answer that turned people's expectations into anger.
"It goes up until incompetence is proven" A
position-oriented figure who started as a second class soldier and climbed to a four-star general.
Central Army Commander Tommy Franks, who led the war in Iraq to victory and was trusted by the US politics, declined an offer to serve as chief of staff.
And without regret, he ended his 36-year military career.
It was to keep the promise I made to my wife, "I will take off my military uniform when the time comes."
Former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who successfully led the 1991 Gulf War as the first black Joint Chiefs of Staff in the history of the United States, was once named the best presidential feeling.
However, in the end, he did not accept the presidential candidate.
At the retirement ceremony of the Secretary of State, she introduced her wife's words, "You are no longer a soldier, so do not treat your employees like infantry."
"In hierarchical organizations, there is a tendency to go up to the point where their incompetence is demonstrated."
This is a claim made by Professor Lawrence Peter of Columbia University in 1969.
Promoting a competent person means that you will be promoted to a position where you can't handle the job, and eventually to the point of being incompetent.
So-called'Peter's Law'.
The former commander Franks and former Minister Powell, mentioned earlier, were not fully aware of Professor Peter's advice and tried to put it into practice?
In a previous lecture, I would like to end my writing with an explanation of the'Peter's Theory' that writer Yoo Si-min gave.
"If you turn over the 'Peter Principle', the 'second law of Peter" comes out. It has that still have not risen to the position that proved their incompetence, thousands of human tissue in the hierarchy.
In your Leader is In the end, you have to find and pick up those who have not been able to reach that high position, where your incompetence will be proven.
"