As in 2016, Donald Trump once again seems to thwart all the forecasts of the American presidential election.

Given widely behind in the polls for months, he is now neck and neck with his rival Joe Biden.

DECRYPTION

A 2016 remake?

Favorite for months with an average 8 point lead in the polls for the White House race, Joe Biden was to win the US presidential ballot.

On the eve of "Election Day", the

highly respected American statistician Nate Silver even estimated that Joe Biden had a 90% chance of winning, while noting that Donald Trump's 10% chance is 'real'.

While many pollsters warned that the election could be disputed in many key states, the vote for the outgoing president was once again underestimated.

But should this be seen as a failure of polling institutes, like four years ago?

Europe 1 opens the debate. 

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"An abysmal failure of the polls"

The Biden-Trump duel turns out to be very close.

According to the latest figures, the Democrat won 227 voters, compared to 213 for the Republican.

A neck and neck just a stone's throw from the 270 major voters needed to win the election.

If the result is still uncertain, seven states having not completed the count, Donald Trump has in all likelihood made the pollsters lie, as in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.  

"The first observation is that we are facing an abysmal failure of the polls," confirmed Thursday noon on Europe 1 Benjamin Haddad, researcher in international relations.

"Whoever wins, we see a much tighter picture than predicted by both the polls and a lot of experts."  

Insufficiently weighted margins of error? 

However, after their failure to predict the rise of the billionaire to the White House, the American pollsters had loudly proclaimed that they had corrected their copy to obtain more weighted margins of error.

But "they have not weighed enough", commented with a touch of mischief a few hours later at the same microphone the ex-CEO of the World Bank, Bertrand Badré.

For this close friend of Emmanuel Macron, the situation is all the more disturbing since it is not only "the pollsters, but also the community of analysts and the major American media, who got a little intoxicated with the idea that this time - this was different ". 

"He took everyone by surprise"

However, like Florida, the most important of the "swing states" he won, Donald Trump has won in key states.

"He took everyone by surprise once again", summarizes Bertrand Badré, who points to one of the president's strategies.

"On the specific subject of Latin Americans, particularly in Florida or Texas where this community is very present, Donald Trump portrayed Joe Biden as a communist, which may have frightened this population."

"These populations were victims of the Covid-19 crisis and were able to appreciate Trump's speech against containment," said Benjamin Haddad, "referring to a hidden reservoir of voices among minorities" in favor of Donald Trump.

More broadly, the researcher points out that we have witnessed a strong "mobilization of his [electoral] base which has remained loyal and enthusiastic to him". 

Expected by the support of the Republican billionaire, the "Trump wave" which was displayed so far in the street has indeed entered the polling stations.

And if that in itself is already a small victory for Donald Trump, it remains to be seen whether it will be powerful enough to keep him afloat in the Oval Office.