<Anchor>
Friendly Economy Today (4th), reporter Kwon Ae-ri is also here.
Reporter Kwon, today (4th) Our SBS is also scheduled to have a special news for the US presidential election from the morning. Is it an economically predictable aftermath after today, what can we start with?
<Reporter>
Yes.
It is more important when this is confirmed than who will be right now.
This election has a greater sense of crisis than ever before that the elect may not be covered within a day or two.
In the case of the existing U.S. presidential election, it was customary for the inferior candidate to first admit defeat and finish the situation, even if all valid votes have not yet been overturned, and then the dominant candidate declared victory.
But this time, rather than being able to see that, in the worst case, one side declares victory by surprise because the other side won first, and it is said that we must prepare for such a case that leads to a long court battle because of the failure to accept the result. .
If the time when you don't really know who the next president of the United States is is prolonged, this is a critical time for the United States as well.
There are a lot of problems.
If you don't know who is the president, you will be delayed in dealing with these issues.
Corona 19 is still a pandemic again, but it is highly likely that the stimulus measures that the US government and Congress have negotiated to spend a lot of money in order to get out of the post-corona recession will not progress.
This will increase the uncertainty that the economy hates the most, and the financial markets, including the US stock market, which suffered a record crash earlier this year, could be tumultuous.
<Anchor>
First, you gave an example of the worst case in the economy. (Yes, the worst case.) What changes can you expect when Biden is elected?
<Reporter> The
US-China trade dispute that has had the greatest impact on us in the US trade policy over the past few years.
The trade conflict between the United States and China will continue in some way no matter who will become President of the United States in the future, but it is very likely that it will not go to extremes as it did during the Trump administration.
That's why it is said that the birth of President Biden can be more beneficial to our economy in the short term.
Korea is an export-oriented economy, and exports to China are the largest in exports.
However, until recently, the trade dispute between the United States and China intensified, and the export environment was not so good that the amount of trade in the world itself decreased.
Of course, exports to China have been hit hard.
However, if the Biden administration is born, there is an expectation that this atmosphere can be relieved to some extent.
First of all, it is analyzed that the Biden administration is highly likely to rejoin the multilateral economic cooperation agreement, which President Trump has withdrawn from this and that, within the relatively existing trade order and put pressure on China within that framework.
Then, perhaps during the corona recovery period, China's economic activity will be much smoother than when the US-China trade conflict last year was severe, and then Korea's exports to China will be smooth again.
The Hyundai Research Institute analyzed that if you become President Trump, the growth rate of Korea's exports may be slightly negative than it is now, but if you become President Biden, it can rise to an annual average of 2.2 percentage points.
However, the long-term profit that cannot be converted into an immediate number is greater for President Trump.In other words, President Trump is re-elected as it is and maintaining a strong one-on-one pressure on China will have to compete with China in the future and the possibility of copying technology. Some say that it is more advantageous in the long run from our point of view.
<Anchor> If
President Trump is re-elected, there has been a little talk before, but nothing changes.
<Reporter>
Yes.
In short, it is the status quo.
It is predictable from the policies we have seen over the past four years, especially while maintaining a tax cut, which is believed to have played a role in the booming U.S. economy before the coronavirus, and one-on-one public pressure will continue.
There are many expectations that the value of the dollar will continue to weaken no matter which candidate becomes president.
In the case of Candidate Biden, the government is expected to make a larger package of stimulus packages to free money, but President Trump is similarly forced to loosen a lot of dollars and will try to stimulate consumption.
It is predicted that eventually, each zero dollar will become more common, and the value of each will remain weak.
<Anchor>
As reporter Kwon said, we have to look forward to the uncertainty and situation that will not appear.