According to data from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client's Foreign Exchange Trading Center on November 2nd, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.7050, an increase of 182 points.

The median price of the previous trading day was reported at 6.7232, the closing price of onshore RMB at 16:30 was reported at 6.7002, and the closing price of RMB at 23:30 at night was 6.6932.

Since June, the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has rebounded as high as 5,700 points.

On October 29, there was a "five consecutive depreciation" of the RMB exchange rate.

Screenshot of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center website

  On the evening of October 27th, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System announced that recently some banks that quoted the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, based on their own judgments on economic fundamentals and market conditions, successively took the initiative to take the "counter-cyclical" quotation model of the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar. Factor" fades out to use.

  According to the announcement, since the beginning of this year, my country's foreign exchange market has been operating smoothly, the international balance of payments has tended to balance, and the RMB exchange rate has been floating in both directions on the basis of market supply and demand, and has increased flexibility.

It is understood that some recent quotation banks for the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar, based on their own judgments on economic fundamentals and market conditions, have taken the initiative to fade out the use of the "countercyclical factor" in the central parity price model of RMB against the US dollar.

The adjusted quotation model is conducive to improving the transparency, benchmarking and effectiveness of the mid-price quotations of quotation banks, and it is also a manifestation of the role of market entities in the self-discipline mechanism of the foreign exchange market.

  According to Times Weekly, Tan Yaling, president and chief economist of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, pointed out that “fade out” does not mean that this measure will be abandoned, because countercyclical factors are very important to the stability, flexibility and effectiveness of the Chinese market. helpful.

  Guan Tao, global chief economist of Bank of China Securities, stated at the first summit of the Forty People’s Forum in China’s Bond Capital Markets that the People’s Bank of China recently reduced the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales to zero, which will help release long-term The demand for futures purchases.

At the same time, the secretariat of the foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism recently announced that some renminbi-to-dollar central parity quotation banks took the initiative to use the "countercyclical factor" in the renminbi-to-dollar central parity quotation model; in addition, the foreign exchange bureau has successively increased QDII investment recently. The quota also supports the outflow of funds in compliance with laws and regulations.

  "From these developments, it can be seen that the exchange rate policies and regulatory policies of the central bank and foreign exchange bureaus are further returning to neutrality." Guan Tao said.

  Tan Yaling predicts that the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar at 6.7 may become the norm, but the RMB may continue to revolve around the basic logic of bilateral fluctuations. Technical adjustments mainly focused on repairing excessive appreciation, and it is still possible to return to the 7 yuan level.

  According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in the first three quarters, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar increased slightly by 2.3%.

In the second half of the year, affected by internal and external factors such as the first recovery of the domestic economy and the fall of the US dollar index, domestic transaction prices returned to the level of 6.6-6.7.

Horizontally, the dollar index fell 2.5% in the first three quarters, the euro appreciated 4.5% against the dollar, the yen appreciated 2.8% against the dollar, the pound depreciated 3.3%, and the emerging market currency index fell 12.2%.

The renminbi is significantly stronger than other emerging market currencies, and it is in the middle of performance compared with the currencies of major developed countries.

  Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, pointed out that in the future, the relative advantages of domestic economic fundamentals will continue to play a fundamental role in stabilizing the foreign exchange market. However, considering the uncertainty and instability of external factors, the RMB exchange rate will still Fluctuate around a reasonable equilibrium level.

  Wang Chunying believes that under the combined effect of internal and external factors, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to maintain two-way fluctuations and basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level.

"We see that a smart market can always see the positive and negative sides of the coin. It not only fully recognizes that the domestic economy is basically facing the support of the RMB exchange rate, but also pays close attention to various external instability and uncertain factors that may keep the RMB There are ups and downs, and two-way fluctuations." (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)