On Monday, November 2, the Russian currency demonstrates a noticeable weakening on the Moscow Exchange.
During the trades, the dollar rate grew by more than 1.8% and for the first time since March 23 reached the level of 80.95 rubles.
At the same time, the euro rate rose by almost 1.6% - up to 94.14 rubles.
The last time a similar value could be observed back in December 2014.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on November 3 was set at 80.57 rubles per dollar and 93.76 rubles per euro.
According to experts, the ruble reacted negatively to the record decline in oil prices.
Thus, on Monday trading the price of Brent crude on the ICE exchange in London fell by more than 5% and at the moment dropped below $ 36 per barrel.
This happened for the first time since May 29.
“As a result of the reintroduction of lockdowns in a number of developed countries, the global demand for energy resources is decreasing.
In addition, oil production in Libya has recently increased sharply and drilling activity in the United States has increased.
Against this background, the world oil market may again move from a deficit to a state of overproduction, "Vasily Karpunin, head of the information and analytical content department at BCS World of Investments, explained to RT.
At the same time, key players in the oil sector do not yet expect a new collapse in oil prices, as it happened in April 2020.
This was previously stated by the Secretary General of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo.
According to him, the countries participating in the OPEC + deal continue to take measures to maintain the balance of demand and supply of energy resources in the world.
Government action is expected to avoid significant price fluctuations.
In addition to the uncertain situation in the oil industry, participants in the foreign exchange market are alarmed by the general deterioration of the epidemic situation in most countries.
According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, the number of recorded cases of COVID-19 in the world has exceeded 46.5 million. This situation raises concerns among investors about the future prospects of the world economy, said Alexey Korenev, an analyst at FINAM Group.
“The market optimism that we saw in August is giving way to pessimism.
In this regard, investors are trying to leave risky currencies, to which the ruble belongs, and invest in more reliable assets, for example, in gold.
Against this background, we see a significant decline in the rate of the Russian currency, but there is no talk of any hard collapse or collapse of the ruble, "Korenev explained in a conversation with RT.
According to analysts, the weakening of the ruble is held back by the actions of the Bank of Russia.
Recall that in order to stabilize the exchange rate from March 10, the regulator began proactive sale of foreign currency in the domestic market.
Thus, the Central Bank artificially increases the demand for rubles.
In total, during this time, the volume of currency sales exceeded 1.38 trillion rubles.
“Psychological marks (of the ruble exchange rate -
) are breaking through, but volatility is minimized by the efforts of our regulator,” Dmitry Peskov, the presidential press secretary, commented on the situation in the foreign exchange market.
According to him, now any world currency is under serious negative pressure from a number of circumstances in the global economy.
At the same time, he stressed that "in general, if we talk about macrostability (in Russia. -
), it is possible to maintain it."
In the near future, one of the determining factors for the ruble may be the results of the presidential elections in the United States, scheduled for November 3.
This point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by Vadim Iosub, a senior analyst at the Alpari Eurasia information and analytical center.
According to him, many investors today expect Joe Biden to win the vote, which puts additional pressure on the ruble.
“The fact is that market participants expect from Biden a rather hawkish policy towards Russia.
Among other things, we are talking about the likely tightening of sanctions, ”Iosub explained.
However, such an alignment will not automatically lead to sharp jumps in exchange rates, says Mikhail Kogan, head of the analytical research department of the Higher School of Financial Management.
“In this case, the situation will depend on the outcome of the congressional elections.
If the Republicans manage to maintain a majority in the Senate, the ruble may even strengthen, since the Democratic candidate Joe Biden will find it difficult to implement plans to impose the promised tough sanctions against Russia, "Kogan explained.
In general, analysts interviewed by RT do not exclude the occurrence of new fluctuations in the Russian foreign exchange market in November.
Meanwhile, according to Alexey Korenev, by the end of the year the situation may stabilize, and the exchange rates of the dollar and euro will be able to return to the levels of 79 and 91 rubles, respectively.
A similar assessment is shared by Valery Yemelyanov, an analyst at Freedom Finance.
“The current position on the market cannot be called stable.
The acute phase will take about two weeks.
During this time, we can see the growth of the dollar and euro rates to new highs near 82 and 96 rubles, respectively.
But within a month the market will have time to survive a sharp reversal and rollback of rates to the levels of early October - 76-77 rubles per dollar and below 90 rubles per euro.
By the end of the year, the indicators are likely to decrease to 73-75 and 86-88 rubles, ”concluded Yemelyanov.