Economists Huang Qunhui, Zhang Yansheng, Chen Shiyi, Ba Shusong, Li Zuojun, Xu Changsheng and other economists gathered at Huazhong University of Science and Technology on the 31st to discuss the new dual-cycle pattern and China’s economic transformation and development.
Huang Huiqun, director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, explained the changes in the current world economic pattern from four aspects:
From the perspective of the real economy, the global economy will be more fragile, and industrial chains and supply chains based on global value chains will face huge challenges and adjustments; from a financial perspective, it is a foregone conclusion that global debt will reach new heights, and the field of international governance is uncertain. In particular, the macroeconomic governance systems such as WTO, IMF, and World Bank established after World War II may undergo great changes; from the perspective of social fields, social distribution shows a trend of increasing income gap; from technical factors Look, digital and intelligent technology is accelerating the "revolutionary" effect of the new industrial revolution.
In this context, if my country wants to form a new development pattern, it needs a new economic development strategy.
The above-mentioned economists unanimously believe that this new economic strategy is "shifting from a low-cost export-oriented industrialization strategy to a high-quality innovation-oriented industrialization strategy", and the factor market reform is the top priority of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period Important, so that all enterprises have equal access to scarce production factors.
Invest in a new engine
Huang Huiqun said that in the past 30 years, China has actively participated in the globalization based on the division of labor in the value chain, and has extensively laid out the industrial chain and supply chain, but it is generally a low-cost and export-oriented industrialization strategy.
While this strategy gains trade benefits and economies of scale, it also has problems such as excessive dependence on foreign capital, limited key core technologies, and huge pressure for industrial structure transformation and upgrading.
Xu Changsheng, a professor at the School of Economics of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, told China Business News that in recent years, my country’s three major investments-manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment have encountered bottlenecks, and the growth rate has dropped significantly. The ratio has also continued to decline, causing the total investment growth rate to drop below 10% since 2015, and to 5% in 2019, and the role of investment in stimulating economic growth is getting weaker and weaker.
Only when the annual growth rate of investment recovers to more than 10% can China's domestic demand expansion, technological innovation and economic growth have momentum.
"The new investment engine will come from R&D and technological advancement (innovation) investment, including R&D (R&D) investment, new infrastructure investment, high-tech industry investment, and investment in the renovation and transformation of traditional and existing leading industries." Xu Changsheng said, only This type of investment accounts for an increasing proportion and has become the number one engine of investment growth. Only when my country’s industries can be upgraded from labor-intensive and capital-intensive in the past to technology-intensive, high-quality development has the most important driving force. .
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s "Four Bases of Industry" Development Catalog (2016～2020) shows that my country’s top ten industries include information technology, CNC machine tools and robots, aerospace equipment, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, new materials, biomedicine, and high-performance medical devices. There are 682 industrial basic "short boards" in the field, including 287 core basic parts (components) short boards, 268 key basic material short boards, 81 advanced basic process short boards and 46 industry technologies Basic shortcomings.
Zhang Yansheng, a senior researcher of the Academic Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the original innovation of 0 to 1, the innovation of key core technologies from 1 to 10, and the innovation of transformation of scientific and technological achievements from 10 to N. These innovations are inseparable from the support of the strategy of technological self-reliance and self-reliance We must adhere to the core position of innovation in the pattern of my country's modernization drive.
A reporter from China Business News noted that in the past five years, the intensity of my country's R&D expenditure has been increasing year by year. R&D expenditure has increased from 1,416.99 billion yuan in 2015 to 2,214.36 billion yuan in 2019, and the growth rate has increased from 8.9% in 2015 to 2019. 12.5% of GDP, but R&D investment accounts for only about 5% of GDP.
How to grasp the "bull nose" of innovation, crack the "stuck neck" technology, and further increase the proportion of R&D investment?
Zhang Yansheng told CBN reporters that, first of all, it is necessary to solve the problem of system and mechanism, so that scientists will not be disturbed in scientific research, engineers will not be disturbed in technological inventions, and entrepreneurs will not be disturbed in technological transformation; Global innovation is willing to participate in our country’s ecological and extended innovation activities; in addition, basic research must be strengthened. Our shortcomings are the rapid growth of investment in development and testing, and the slow growth of application foundation. Last year, China’s basic research accounted for the largest proportion of total R&D expenditure. More than 6% of the time, but still 12 percentage points lower than the United States.
Factor market reform
How to smooth the domestic cycle lies in the fundamental market reform.
Chen Shiyi, Secretary of the Party Committee of the School of Economics of Fudan University, stated that if the main content of the government reform in the 13th Five-Year Plan period is to reform “decentralize control and service” and optimize the business environment, then the “14th Five-Year Plan” will definitely take the reform of the factor market as The top priority.
Chen Shiyi said that the reform of the factor market is an important guarantee for the vitality of enterprises.
Only when factors flow reasonably among enterprises can they release mismatched resources, form a correction mechanism for factor mismatches, give full play to the efficiency of production factors, realize an optimized combination, and break the long-distorted industrial structure and regional structure.
"Among them, how to enable a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises to have equal access to scarce production factors is particularly important."
The reform of the factor market needs to better play the role of the government.
Chen Shiyi believes that, first of all, the government must play an important role in improving the factor pricing mechanism, operation mechanism and competition mechanism.
Improve factor trading rules to ensure equal access to production factors by different market players, and enhance the emergency allocation of factors.
At the same time, clarify the boundary of the role of the government and the market in the factor market, and achieve an organic combination of deregulation and management, and avoid direct allocation of factors by the government.
Second, the government needs to implement policies based on different factors.
On the one hand, we must expand the scope of factor market allocation as a whole and accelerate the development of factor markets.
On the other hand, it is necessary to classify and implement policies according to the attributes of different factors and the degree of marketization. For example, factor markets such as labor, capital, energy, land, technology, data, etc., must implement precise policies based on their own problems.
In addition, Zhang Yansheng and Chen Shiyi both mentioned that at present, my country’s market and technology are relatively dependent on Europe and the United States, and energy and resources are dependent on the Middle East, Asia, Africa and Latin America. The next step is how the East Asian production network can move demand eastward and supply eastward. To build a new pattern of East Asia cooperation.
Chen Shiyi said that by taking advantage of the trade advantages of the Asian region, promoting the construction of the Asian Free Trade Zone, and consolidating the Asian trade network and industrial chain, my country can remain invincible in the global trade competition.
Author: Zhou Fang