In the first three quarters, China's GDP growth rate has turned from negative to positive, and the economic recovery is likely to continue in the fourth quarter.

　　A series of economic "barometer" data released recently, such as electricity consumption, freight volume, and excavator sales, all reflect the vitality of China's economic recovery.

For example, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 7.2% year-on-year in September, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the sales of excavators increased by more than 50% for six consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth in September reached 64.8%.

The market generally predicts that China's economic recovery will be more pronounced in the fourth quarter, with GDP growth rate of more than 6%, and annual growth rate of about 2%.

　　Wu Ge, chief economist of Changjiang Securities, told China Business News that considering that the current balance of supply and demand has gradually formed a basically smooth national economic cycle, the endogenous driving force of economic growth has begun to emerge. China's economy will continue to improve in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The foundation is still solid.

　　At the same time, since the beginning of the fourth quarter, meetings related to economic situation analysis have been intensively held from the central to local governments to deploy economic work in the fourth quarter. Tax reduction and fee reduction, investment expansion, and consumption promotion have become the main lines of the central government's economic work.

Tax cuts and fees are not discounted

　　The confidence in the economic recovery comes from the resilience and potential of China's economy, as well as the precision and effectiveness of a series of macro-control policies.

In the fourth quarter of economic work, tax cuts and fee reductions are still an important force.

　　Earlier, the Ministry of Finance said that it is expected that the scale of new tax cuts and fees for the whole year will exceed 2.5 trillion yuan.

From January to August this year, the nationwide tax and fee reductions of 1,877,286 million yuan have played an important role in alleviating business difficulties, stabilizing market players, supporting the resumption of work and production, and the smooth operation of the economy.

　　Chen Donghao, deputy director of the Taxation Department of the Ministry of Finance, stated at a press conference on fiscal revenues and expenditures in the third quarter on October 21 that the Ministry of Finance will increase guidance and supervision, continue to pay close attention to changes in tax burdens in various industries, and follow up and monitor results. Analyze and judge, study and solve outstanding problems reported by localities and companies, help companies make full use of policies, and better promote the resumption of work and production and the smooth operation of the economy.

　　On October 12, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, presided over a video symposium for key leaders of some local governments to study and analyze the economic situation and promote the next step of economic and social development.

　　Li Keqiang pointed out that tax cuts and fee reductions are an important support for helping enterprises to relieve their difficulties and are a key measure for the current economic stability and recovery.

We must continue to pay close attention to the implementation of policies in the next few months, and make more precise use of direct fiscal funds. We must ensure that all promises are fulfilled by market entities, and we will never compromise and enhance their development capabilities.

Governments at all levels must insist on living a tight life and resolutely prevent centralized tax collection and arbitrary fee reduction policy dividends.

Expand the coverage of inclusive finance and provide effective financial services to more small, medium and micro enterprises and difficult industries.

　　On October 9, Wang Jun, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State Administration of Taxation, presided over an office meeting of the Director of the State Administration of Taxation. He also emphasized that it is necessary to coordinate the work of reducing taxes and fees and organizing revenue. The closer the end of the year is approaching, the more it is necessary to ensure the reduction of taxes and fees. We will not compromise without deductions, and firmly hold to the bottom line of not charging “excessive taxes” to ensure that policy dividends reach market players, better serve the overall situation of “six stability” and “six guarantees” and build a new development pattern.

Expand investment and promote consumption

　　Judging from the focus of the deployment of economic work in the fourth quarter in various regions, expanding effective investment, promoting consumption upgrading, and smoothing the "double cycle" have become the highlight.

　　The video symposium held on October 12 by the main responsible persons of some local governments on the economic situation emphasized that focusing on promoting economic transformation and upgrading, following the rules, steadily advancing the construction of "two new and one heavy" projects, and digging more in terms of ecological environment protection and key technology research. Many new and effective investment growth points.

　　On October 22, Ma Xingrui, Governor of Guangdong Province, presided over the provincial economic situation research and judgment meeting in the first three quarters, expressing that he would increase efforts to support the development of the real economy, go all out to stabilize industrial growth, and focus on key project construction and give full play to investment The key role is to improve consumption promotion policies and measures, tap the growth potential of market consumption through multiple channels, vigorously explore the international market, pay close attention to the construction of major foreign investment projects, and consolidate and enhance the momentum of foreign trade and foreign investment.

　　On October 23, the Hebei Provincial Economic Work and Security and Stability Work Promotion Conference also proposed that it is necessary to highlight the expansion of effective investment, give full play to the strategic supporting role of the "three major events", the investment driving role of key provincial and municipal projects, and the "two new and one heavy" strategy. The project has a major traction effect, speeding up the construction progress of key areas and key projects in Xiongan New Area, and promoting the upgrading of key projects.

Focus on expanding consumption and improving quality, promote the recovery of traditional bulk consumption growth, expand living consumption, focus on increasing rural consumption, develop online consumption such as e-commerce, and fully release the potential for economic development.

　　Statistics show that in the first three quarters, national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 43,653 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The growth rate changed from negative to positive for the first time during the year, and fell by 3.1% in the first half of the year.

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 2,73324 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 4.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. Among them, the third quarter increased by 0.9%, and the quarterly growth rate turned positive for the first time this year.

　　Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura China, believes that effective control of the epidemic will help service consumption to rebound further, and the positive effects of relief and economic stimulus policies will be further revealed. Infrastructure investment will become the main force for investment in the fourth quarter. .

　　The key to stabilizing the economy in the fourth quarter is how to play the key role of investment, especially making good use of budgetary funds, local special bonds and anti-epidemic government bonds that have been issued or are being issued.

As long as the new investment is put to good use, and efforts are made to expand effective investment, while at the same time driving a rapid rise in consumption, it can provide a strong impetus for consolidating the upward momentum of economic stability.

　　Li Zongguang, chief economist of China Renaissance Capital, told CBN that with the continuous improvement of understanding of the law of the epidemic, people's enthusiasm for consumption is gradually returning.

The active actions of local governments, such as issuing consumer vouchers, have a very positive effect on the recovery of consumption and the recovery of social activities as a whole.

The outbreak of National Day consumption has a very positive effect on the continuity of the subsequent economic recovery.

　　Shen Jianguang, chief economist of JD Digital, also believes that in addition to industrial production and exports, which generally maintained a relatively high growth rate in the third quarter, domestic demand rebounded, especially consumption rebounded significantly, indicating that China's economic recovery has been driven by a structural recovery from the supply side to supply and demand. Linkage’s overall recovery is moving forward, or it may prepare the momentum for China’s economic rebound in the fourth quarter and 2021.

Next, the export-manufacturing investment chain and household consumption, especially service consumption, are expected to gradually replace real estate and infrastructure investment and become the main driving force for further economic recovery.

Overweight the layout of new infrastructure

　　In terms of investment and consumption, it is worth mentioning that in the first three quarters, the driving effect of new infrastructure and new consumption such as 5G construction has increased, and the new economy has played a very significant role in driving the overall economy.

In the fourth quarter, relevant state departments and local governments intensively voiced that new infrastructure projects are expected to usher in greater policy support.

　　On October 21, at the national teleconference on information and communication supervision work, Liu Liehong, a member of the party group and deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, mentioned that pragmatically promote the large-scale deployment of 5G networks, accelerate core technology innovation, deepen 5G convergence applications, and expand the coverage of gigabit fiber , To accelerate the construction of new data centers.

Create a high-quality industrial Internet network system, and continue to promote the transformation of the company's internal and external networks, guided by the "5G + Industrial Internet" 512 project.

Promote the deep integration and application of the Industrial Internet in all aspects.

　　The construction speed of new infrastructure such as 5G and Industrial Internet has exceeded expectations.

In the first three quarters, my country's total telecom business volume increased by 18.6% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment increased by 16.5% year-on-year, of which 5G investment accounted for 38.2%.

5G networks and terminals are developing rapidly in commercial use.

As of the end of September, a total of 690,000 5G base stations have been built, and the annual mission target has been completed ahead of schedule.

　　At the 3rd Digital China Construction Summit that just concluded, Fujian Province collected and sorted out a total of 607 digital economy docking projects with a total investment of 439.2 billion yuan, of which 426 signed projects, with a total investment of 331.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%. , 31.6%, covering cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, 5G, industrial Internet, and blockchain.

　　Many other places are also intensively deployed.

The Shanghai Municipal Party Committee’s Financial and Economic Work Committee meeting on October 13 pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the development of innovative economy, service-oriented economy, open economy, headquarters-based economy, and flow-based economy, and promote the expansion of various flows of talent, capital, technology, information, etc. Increase capacity, promote the growth of emerging traffic such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, and vigorously cultivate a new online economy.

　　According to Shen Jianguang's analysis, the new infrastructure has created positive conditions for the "post-epidemic era" of China's economy to regenerate and seek new changes.

5G, artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things are both emerging industries and infrastructure.

It will not only help promote industrial upgrading, expand effective demand, and protect people's livelihood, but also an important starting point for stabilizing growth.

Although these advance investments have limited returns in the current period, they have obvious spillovers, greatly improving social production and logistics efficiency, enhancing China's competitiveness, and supporting China's status as the world's largest manufacturing country.

　　Author: sweet wish