During the year, the last wave of bank stock lifting bans came.

A few days ago, the lock-up period of 19 million shares restricted by the original shareholders of Bank of Hangzhou expired and went public, opening the curtain of lifting the ban on A-share listed banks in the next two months.

　　Calculated based on the closing price of 13.26 yuan per share on the day, the market value of Bank of Hangzhou this time was about 252 million yuan.

According to Wind data statistics from a reporter from China Business News, as of now, in addition to the Bank of Hangzhou, in the next two months, there will be 6 banks including Chongqing Agricultural Commercial Bank, Zijin Bank, Ningbo Bank, Zheshang Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Bank of Beijing. The sale of shares is lifted, and the total lifted scale is about 100 billion.

　　In this regard, the market is generally worried about whether bank stocks will face reductions of major shareholders after the lifting of the ban?

With the current macroeconomic situation and bank performance improving, will the lifting of the 100 billion yuan ban have a negative impact on the trend of bank stocks?

Many industry insiders interviewed by China Business News believe that the lifting of the ban will have more or less impact on related new stocks, but it will have less impact on the entire banking sector. It is expected that the trend of bank stocks will remain optimistic before the end of the year.

What is the impact of the lifting of the ban on bank stocks

　　After getting together and listing last year, bank stocks ushered in the year of lifting the ban this year. During the year, 15 banks joined the banned team. Among them, mainly small and medium-sized banks such as city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, with only two stock banks, respectively. For Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial Bank.

　　Recently, bank stocks have been intensively lifted. The latest information is that on October 27, the lock-up period of 19 million shares of Hangzhou Bank’s first original shareholder's restricted shares expired and went public. Based on the closing price of the day, the market size of the ban was 252 million yuan.

　　In addition, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank will also lift the ban on October 30. The lifted shares will be the first issue of restricted shares for the original shareholders.

According to the announcement disclosed by the bank, the number of lifted bans reached 4.517 billion shares, accounting for about 40% of the total share capital of the bank, involving 2.95 billion shares held by 161 corporate shareholders and 1.567 billion shares held by approximately 77,000 individual shareholders. .

　　According to Wind data, in addition to the above two banks, in the next two months, there will also be five banks including Zijin Bank, Bank of Ningbo, Zheshang Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Bank of Beijing. According to calculations, the total scale of the lifting of the ban on the seven banks is about 98 billion yuan.

　　From past experience, the lifting of the stock ban means an increase in the supply of stocks in the market, which may have a certain volatility impact on the market in the short term.

Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, told a reporter from China Business News, “But this impact is limited to the short-term, and the impact on individual stocks is relatively large, and the difference is also large. It depends on whether the holders of the lifted stocks are long-term investors. , Whether the stock valuation is too high, whether the banned stocks are profitable or at a loss, and the overall market sentiment at that time."

　　In Zhou Maohua's view, the lifting of the ban on bank stocks at the end of the year has a short-term impact on the market and has limited impact, mainly reflected in individual stock fluctuations.

This is because the current domestic bank valuations are in a state of breaking net, and there will be no substantial decline in valuation due to increased supply; in addition, the generally high dividend rate of bank stocks is attractive to long-term stable investors, plus The domestic economy continues to recover, and the resumption of work and production of enterprises is obvious, and the fundamentals are favorable to cyclical sectors such as banks.

　　Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of the banking industry of Tianfeng Securities, also told reporters that the lifting of bank stocks will have an impact on the stock prices of individual stocks, but the impact on the entire sector is relatively small.

As far as individual stocks are concerned, if most of the holders of the lifted shares are private enterprises or participants in a fixed increase, then they may face pressure to reduce their holdings; if the shareholders of lifted shares are mainly state-owned enterprises, the pressure is relatively small .

　　"Major shareholders will not necessarily take actual actions to reduce their holdings. The lifting of the ban may affect market sentiment, but it will not have too large an impact on the market." Shenwan Hongyuan analyst Xia Jiali also told a reporter from China Business News.

　　Specifically, in this wave of ban lifting, Postal Savings Bank of China is the bank with the largest scale of lifting the ban. According to public information, nearly 7.4 billion restricted shares of Postal Savings Bank will be listed and circulated on December 11, including the initial shareholder limit. According to the latest closing price on the 28th, the market value of the lifting of the ban will reach 33.65 billion yuan.

　　In addition, Zijin Bank will lift the ban on approximately 420,000 IPO shares restricted by original shareholders on November 3, with a market value of approximately 1.69 million; Ningbo Bank’s 304 million private placement shares will be lifted on November 16, with a market value of 104.3 RMB 4,461 million of Zheshang Bank’s 18.20 billion IPO restricted shares will be listed for circulation on November 26; Bank of Beijing will lift the ban on 2.895 billion private placement shares on December 28, with a market value of 13.664 billion yuan.

　　Zhou Maohua told reporters that generally speaking, if shareholders choose to reduce their holdings after the ban is lifted, they will actually release to the market that they are not optimistic about the company's long-term development and have a negative impact on stock prices; but if the market sentiment at that time is good, investors are optimistic about the development of the company. , I feel that the valuation of the lifted stocks is low and a large amount of capital flows in, and the stock price is expected to continue to rise.

Banking sector is in shock, future valuation is expected to be restored

　　While bank stocks are ushering in the lifting of the ban, the recent banking sector has fallen into shock.

First, it ushered in a significant increase after the National Day holiday. From October 9 to October 23, the overall increase was about 5.72%; but since this Monday, it has fallen into a downturn again. As of the close of October 28, there were 37 listed banks on that day. None of the A shares rose. Among them, the Xiamen Bank, which was listed the day before, hit a limit.

　　A senior practitioner in the banking industry told reporters that the recent poor trend of bank stocks is mainly due to the impact of the broader market, and the performance of bank stocks before the end of the year is still optimistic.

On the one hand, due to the bank’s performance and profit-giving policy entering a period of stability, this is the main reason for the previous collapse in the valuation of bank stocks; on the other hand, economic recovery will also bring marginal contributions.

　　At present, the third-quarter performance of listed banks is gradually being disclosed, and the banking industry's operating conditions in the first three quarters will follow.

For example, Ping An Bank’s three quarterly report disclosed on October 21 showed that the bank achieved operating income of 116.564 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 22.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. Among them, the bank in the third quarter The net profit attributable to the parent in a single quarter increased by 6.1% year-on-year; the report released by the Bank of Shanghai on October 23 showed that in the first three quarters of this year, the Bank of Shanghai achieved operating income of 37.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.91%; net profit attributable to the parent was 15.1 billion yuan , A year-on-year decrease of 7.99%.

　　Some analysts said that, combined with the previous Financial Street Forum's regulatory statements, as the overall economy recovers and continues to grow, the pressure on banks to transfer profits is gradually weakening. The industry's own profit is expected to gradually return to normal, and asset quality is expected to achieve an inflection point, which will drive the market to banks. With the expected restoration of the sector, the valuation of the sector will rebound significantly.

　　In fact, the development of the banking industry is closely related to the macro-economy and it is also the consensus of many industry insiders.

Liao Zhiming told reporters that looking back in history, every round of banking sector trend opportunities since 2005 is basically related to economic prosperity.

Although this year’s epidemic has caused a downturn in global economic growth, since the second quarter of 2020, my country’s PPI decline has gradually narrowed and is expected to turn positive. The profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size has increased, the domestic economy has recovered steadily, and economic recovery expectations have been further strengthened. The stock market will go further in the economic recovery phase.

　　In addition, since the beginning of this year, the Bank (CITIC) Index has fallen by 9.41%, which has a large gap with the popular sectors, and there is a strong demand for supplementary gains.

Liao Zhiming said, “Revisiting the banking sector’s fourth quarter market over the past 15 years, a total of 11 years of positive yields, with an average increase of 11.83%, showed the characteristics of valuation switching at the end of the year.”

　　The CICC research report also mentioned that the valuation of bank stocks is expected to enter a reversal channel. The current stage of the banking industry is similar to that from the end of 2015 to the beginning of 2016, but after three quarters, the macroeconomic recovery and the stability of interest rate margins will give banks stability Business environment.

"We believe that the logic of'performance reversal, not valuation rebound' will promote bank stocks to usher in a big market similar to 2016-2018, and A/H bank stocks will have more than 60% upside." The research report said.

　　Author: Duan Yu (sweet intern Liu also contributed to this article)