From October 26th to 29th, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Party was held in Beijing.
As an important topic, the meeting will deliberate the CPC Central Committee’s proposal on formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and 2035 Long-Term Goals, and draw up a blueprint for China’s development in the next 5 or 15 years.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is the first five years of starting a new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way and marching toward the second centenary goal.
In the course of China's all-round modernization, it occupies an important historical position connecting the past and the future.
Looking forward to the "14th Five-Year Plan", many experts analyzed that the goal of GDP growth will be further downplayed. The new "dual cycle" development pattern will guide the development of China's economy in the next five years, and use large domestic demand as a platform to further expand opening up and speed up household registration. System reform promotes urbanization, and reforms in key areas such as the marketization of factors and state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises will also have new breakthroughs.
Downplaying the GDP growth target
Since 1953, China has formulated and implemented thirteen five-year plans.
This year is the final year of the "13th Five-Year Plan" and the year of the layout of the "14th Five-Year Plan".
In the past five years, my country's economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and comprehensive national strength have leapt to a new level. The total economic volume has approached the 100 trillion yuan mark, and the per capita GDP has reached the level of 10,000 US dollars.
The main targets of the "13th Five-Year Plan" will be achieved as planned, with major strategic tasks and 165 major engineering projects fully implemented and effective.
China's economy, which has the world's largest middle-income group and hundreds of millions of market players, is bursting with vitality, and the people's sense of gain, happiness, and security continue to increase.
At the beginning of this year, the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic hit China's economy.
The Chinese government has coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and has introduced some powerful macro-control policies.
This year’s government work report did not propose specific targets for GDP growth, mainly because the global epidemic and the economic and trade situation are highly uncertain, and my country’s development is facing some unpredictable factors.
Today, the growth rate of China's economy in the first three quarters of this year has turned positive, taking the lead in recovering among the world's major economies.
The Chinese economy has shown strong resilience and vitality.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will shrink by 4.4% this year, and China will be the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, wrote an article to analyze that a very important issue that needs to be considered in the "14th Five-Year Plan" is to reasonably determine China's economic growth target.
It is necessary to scientifically judge the current development stage of the Chinese economy, accurately study and judge the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy, so as to correctly determine the growth target and corresponding growth rate of the Chinese economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
Wang Jun, a member of the Academic Committee of the China International Economic Exchange Center, told China Business News that in the face of the continued decline in potential economic growth and the high degree of uncertainty in the global economy under the impact of the epidemic, the probability of China's economic growth center will further decline in the future Uncertainty or further downplaying the GDP growth target will help the whole society to implement the new development concept and shift the focus of work to promoting high-quality development, adjusting and optimizing the economic structure and other more important aspects.
Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, also believes that the expected GDP growth target may be lowered, focusing more on economic rebalancing and the quality of development.
Compared with the average annual real GDP growth target of "6.5% or more" set by the "13th Five-Year Plan", it is expected that the "14th Five-Year Plan" may significantly downplay the economic growth target.
Promote the "double cycle"
The "double cycle" strategy has been emphasized many times in this year's high-level meetings.
The Standing Committee meeting of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held on May 14th proposed for the first time "to build a new development pattern in which the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other."
The industry expects that the dual-cycle strategy will run through the "14th Five-Year Plan" and become the main line of China's medium and long-term economic development.
Wang Tao said that the new "dual cycle" development pattern will guide China's economic development in the next five years. Many policies to boost domestic demand and open to the outside world will be integrated and accelerated under this theme, including the promotion of new urbanization and infrastructure. Construction of facilities, support for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and improvement of the social security system.
According to CICC's estimates, China's total economy has accounted for nearly 20% of the world's total, and the per capita GDP level may exceed the global per capita GDP around 2023.
Regardless of the economic aggregate or the unit level, China's growth has been difficult to rely solely on external sources. It must pay more attention to domestic demand and consumption potential than in any period since the reform and opening up.
Kuang Xianming, director of the Economic Research Institute of the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute, said that the trend of economic transformation and upgrading of 1.4 billion people has huge potential and has become an important foundation for the double cycle.
If the proportion of urban and rural residents' service consumption can increase to 60%, it will bring about 10 trillion yuan in new consumption; if urban-rural integration can effectively break through, the urbanization rate of the registered population will increase significantly, which will bring about 10 trillion yuan. Investment and consumer demand.
As long as this domestic demand potential is continuously released, it can become an important driving force for the international cycle.
China's diversified and multi-level domestic demand cannot be met by its own supply alone, and internal industrial upgrading also requires external competition and incentives.
In the "14th Five-Year Plan", using large domestic demand as a platform to further expand opening and promote the external circulation of commodities, capital, and talents may also be a highly probable move.
CITIC Securities pointed out that the new "dual cycle" pattern will tap the potential of domestic factors and domestic demand markets, promote the development of domestic metropolitan areas, consolidation of industrial chains and consumption upgrades, and participate in the international market with a higher level of openness.
Promoting the "dual cycle" with the "domestic cycle" includes not only the real economy cycle, but also the capital market cycle, and the capital market cycle has greater space and potential for development in my country.
CICC also believes that China's economic transformation and structural upgrading rely more on direct financing, and China needs to more closely promote the integration of internal and external capital to resolve external challenges.
Therefore, it is necessary to further develop the capital market to become an important hub of the "domestic cycle", to further open the capital account to promote two-way capital flow and to invigorate the "outer cycle."
Speed up the reform of the household registration system and promote urbanization
Urbanization has become an important driving force for the stable and long-term development of China's economy.
Since the reform and opening up, my country’s growth model is mainly driven by factor input coupled with efficiency improvements. The factor input is mainly driven by the rapid growth of domestic urbanization and industrialization demand, and the continuous expansion of external demand, and the rapid increase of capital, labor, land and other factor inputs. In particular, the increase in non-agricultural labor represented by the transfer of labor from rural to urban areas has provided important support for industrial development.
In 2019, the urbanization rate in the eastern region of my country was 68.5%, and the urbanization rate in the central and western regions was 56.8% and 54.1%, respectively, and even in some places, it has not reached 50%.
With the implementation of the domestic cycle strategy, the urbanization rate in the central and western regions will further increase, and will make a major contribution to the future increase in my country's urbanization rate.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, how will urbanization develop?
Wang Yiming, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and secretary-general of the National Development Planning Expert Committee of the 14th Five-Year Plan, said recently that accelerating the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population is the primary requirement, because the main domestic cycle must ensure the continuous expansion and upgrading of domestic consumption. The conversion of nearly 270 million migrant workers into citizens can quickly release consumption potential, which is of great significance to expanding consumption.
At present, migrant workers in our country already account for nearly 70% of the urban employment population. If migrant workers can consume like urban residents after they become citizens, the national per capita consumption expenditure will increase by 27%.
To achieve this goal, the reform of the household registration system needs to be accelerated.
Wang Yiming pointed out that the gap between the urbanization rate of the permanent population and the urbanization rate of the registered population is very limited.
It is very important to loosen restrictions on settlements other than megacities, especially the equalization of basic public services, which is linked to the permanent population rather than the registered population.
The core of the dual cycle is to break through the obstruction of the two-way flow of urban and rural elements, instead of one-way flow between urban and rural areas.
Zhang Liqun believes that the urban construction and development activities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are focusing on long-term scientific planning, overall functions and mutual coordination, ensuring long-term infrastructure and public service capacity building, building a democratic and legal environment in the city, and focusing on nature. And ecological and environmental protection will increasingly show more and more new features and looks.
Urbanization will enter a new historical period that serves the overall improvement of people's survival and development level and the continuous enhancement of sustainable development capabilities.
Reforms in key areas need breakthroughs
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the supply-side structural reform has penetrated into the development of the property rights system and factor market, indicating that the exploration and practice of the socialist market economy system with Chinese characteristics has entered a key link in the depth.
Zhang Liqun analyzed that the reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will go deep into the construction of the property rights system and the development of the factor market.
The changes in the system and mechanism promoted by the reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will be more manifested and consolidated at the level of continuous innovation and continuous improvement of the legal system.
This will be a new and important feature of reform and opening up.
Specifically, Yang Changchang, chief economist of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, believes that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is necessary to grasp the key points and difficulties of the five major market reforms of land, human resources, capital, technology, and data, and accelerate the urban-rural flow of land elements. Enhance the level of intensification of land use; establish a factor market view with human resources as the first resource, and improve the entrepreneurial market; use a securitized capital market to drive the optimal allocation of capital factors of the whole society; accelerate the integration of technology and property rights trading markets, and promote the technology market Basic system construction; gradually build a basic system framework for the data transaction market, and promote the integrated development of the data market and the capital market.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises will burst with new vitality.
With the issuance of the three-year action plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises, the three-year action for the reform of state-owned enterprises has been fully launched.
Through the implementation of the three-year action, notable results have been achieved in forming a more mature and stereotyped modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics and a state-owned asset supervision system based on capital management, promoting the optimization and structural adjustment of the state-owned economy, and improving the vitality and efficiency of state-owned enterprises.
Li Jin, the chief researcher of the China Enterprise Research Institute, told China Business News that the three-year action for the reform of state-owned enterprises is the implementation of the “1+N” policy system and top-level design of the state-owned enterprise reform in the next three years. It is a measurable, assessable, and Can be inspected, to be handled.
Doing this well is of great significance to strengthening and improving the state-owned economy, enhancing the vitality of state-owned enterprises, improving efficiency, and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern.
At present, a series of more targeted, more operational and more precise reform measures will be implemented.
The key areas of reform mainly include improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics, actively and steadily deepening the reform of mixed ownership, accelerating the improvement of market-oriented operating mechanisms, improving the state-owned asset supervision system, and fully releasing and stimulating the vitality of grassroots reforms.
Huang Qunhui, director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote an article that state-owned enterprise reform has always been a central link in my country's economic system reform. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, practical reform roadmaps and specific measures must be adopted to achieve breakthrough progress.
State-owned enterprises must grasp the direction of reforms that have not seen major changes in a century, start with the construction of long-term and far-reaching systems, and promote the formation of a more mature and more stereotyped modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics and a state-owned asset supervision system based on capital management.
Author: sweet wish