Behind the seven consecutive declines in pork prices-
Live pig production continues to recover and the pressure of industrial transformation still exists
Qiao Jinliang, reporter of Economic Daily and China Economic Net
By the end of this year, my country is expected to achieve the goal of basically restoring the production capacity of live pigs to near normal levels.
In the coming period, the pork supply situation will get better and better.
Experts said that this round of hog production fluctuations highlights the importance of accelerating the high-quality development of animal husbandry.
In the future, it is necessary to stabilize and continue effective policies, create measures that adapt to the new development of the industry, and comprehensively improve the ability to ensure the safety of live pig supply.
The price of meat has dropped, which is the obvious feeling of consumers when buying vegetables recently.
Data shows that with the increase in the number of live pigs, the price of pork has fallen for 7 consecutive weeks. The market price is 50.56 yuan per kilogram, which is 9.08 yuan lower than the highest point in February this year.
Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that he is confident that the annual pig production capacity will be basically restored to near normal levels.
Industry experts interviewed by reporters said that this round of live pig production fluctuations has given us a strong warning, highlighting the importance of accelerating the high-quality development of animal husbandry.
From 2018 to 2019, the production capacity of live pigs has severely declined, which has exposed problems such as incomplete support and guarantee systems, poor industrial development quality, and weak ability to resist risks.
In the future, it is necessary to stabilize and continue effective policies, create measures that adapt to the new development of the industry, and comprehensively improve the ability to ensure the safety of live pig supply.
The turning point of continuous recovery of production has appeared
"The progress of the various indicators of pig production is better than expected." Hu Hanping, director of the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that as a major province of live pigs, Jiangxi Province has transferred 4.555 million live pigs, completing 91.1% of the annual task.
The current price of live pigs in Jiangxi Province has fallen to 33.3 yuan/kg.
At the same time, the breeding confidence was fully boosted.
With the implementation of various supporting policies, 63,000 mu of land for live pig production has been implemented, Jiangxi’s provincial special fund of 680 million yuan, and financing loans of 27.63 billion yuan. The enthusiasm for pig breeding is relatively high. There are 1,378 newly built, renovated and expanded scale pig farms, and 805 have been built. Home, with 2.65 million heads of new stock.
Sichuan is the largest province in the production of live pigs, and the annual number of live pigs for slaughter accounts for about one-tenth of the country.
According to Yang Xiubin, director of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Sichuan Province has lowered the task of slaughtering pigs to the county level by level. The mayor of "Vegetable Basket" is responsible for increasing the proportion of pigs to 70%, and promoted the county party committee secretary to serve as the county-level pig production resumption headquarters. Commander.
The Sichuan Provincial Government will provide a subsidy of 300 yuan per head for this year's new breeding sows, and a subsidy of 10 yuan per head for the 60 million pigs that are planned to be slaughtered.
At present, 52,400 acres of farming land have been provided, 20.8 million acres of restricted breeding areas have been reduced, and 222 million yuan has been implemented as a subsidy.
Various phenomena indicate that the newly increased production capacity in the early stage is gradually being released.
Wei Baigang, chief economist of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced that since the beginning of this year, various places have accelerated the expansion of farm households to increase their production, which has strongly promoted the recovery of live pig production. In the first three quarters, 12,500 large-scale pig farms and 13,400 empty-scale pig farms were newly built Re-cultivation.
By the end of September, the national live pig stock reached 370 million heads, returning to 84% at the end of 2017; the national breeding sow stock reached 38.22 million heads, returning to 86% at the end of 2017.
The reporter noted that 2017 has been a normal year for pork production in my country in the past three years. Affected by the production cycle and the African swine fever epidemic, pork production continued to decline in 2018 and 2019.
"According to monitoring, by September this year, the stock of reproductive sows has increased month-on-month for 12 consecutive months, and the stock of live pigs has also increased month-on-month for 8 consecutive months. Especially in June and July this year, the stock of reproductive sows and pigs have achieved successive growth. Year-on-year growth, these are two important turning points for the recovery of live pig production. The growth rate expanded further in August and September. At the end of September, the stock of reproductive sows increased by 28% year-on-year, and the stock of live pigs increased by 20.7% year-on-year." Chen Guanghua said, according to this. Trends, we are confident to achieve the goal of recovering the annual pig production capacity to near normal levels.
The industry is positive and there will be no shortage of meat in the bowl
The reporter's interview found that policies on land use, environmental protection, finance, and finance were unprecedented, and the level of prevention and control of the African swine fever epidemic was significantly improved. The problems of "no money raising", "no land raising" and "dare to raise" continued to be solved, and the effect of raising pigs to enrichment remained Obviously, this is where the confidence lies in the recovery of pig production capacity.
To crack the "no money raising", real money supports the pig industry.
Zheng Huidian, a first-level inspector of the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Guangdong Province, said that since last year, Guangdong Province has allocated about 2.7 billion yuan to support the pig industry, and the provincial agricultural supply-side reform fund joint enterprise has invested 9.3 billion yuan to establish a pig industry sub-fund.
As of the end of August, Guangdong's pig breeding loan balance was 27.8 billion yuan, an increase of 106.5% from the beginning of the year.
Liu Teng, director of the Agriculture and Rural Bureau of Shangli County, Jiangxi Province, said that the county has made it clear that for pig breeding farms and pig-scale farms that meet the credit conditions but temporarily encounter operational difficulties, they must not blindly limit loans.
At present, there are more than 100,000 live pigs in the county, and more than 10,000 breeding sows. The re-raising of live pigs has reached the expected goal.
Cracking the "landless farming" and innovating land use policies and breeding models.
Liu Jun, director of the Guangxi Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that Guangxi has delegated the authority to file facility agricultural land and forest land use for pig breeding projects to the township people’s government and the forestry authorities of districts and cities, and the promotion of the three-dimensional pig raising model in multi-storey buildings is welcomed by market players. It is also the first country in the country to carry out the pilot project of incorporating the elevated net-bed environmentally friendly pig houses into agricultural machinery purchase subsidies.
In the local area, small and medium farms are driven by leading enterprises to carry out "iron bucket" transformations, and closed management of pig farms is implemented to effectively solve the problems of small and medium farms being "badly raised" and the urgent need for space for the development of leading enterprises.
Crack the "dare to raise" and improve the prevention and control of animal diseases.
Since the beginning of this year, a total of 18 African swine fever outbreaks have been reported in 9 provinces, and the number of outbreak reports, reports, and harmless treatments have all dropped significantly.
Tang Jianjun, director of the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau, said that Shandong has accelerated the construction of an epidemic-free province, all counties have pathogenic testing capabilities, 79 counties have completed the reform of the village-level epidemic prevention staff management system, and 58,000 pig farms have implemented risk management and promotion. With comprehensive detection and precise prevention mode, three companies took the lead in passing the on-site assessment of the national African swine fever free community.
Recently, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Animal Husbandry", proposing that the pork self-sufficiency rate should be maintained at around 95%.
Chen Guanghua analyzed that the pork supply situation will get better and better in the future.
"Recently, we organized experts to analyze and calculate, taking into account factors such as the recovery of live pig production, pork imports, changes in consumer demand, etc., during the Spring Festival next year, the supply of pork will increase by about 30% year-on-year, and the price will generally be lower than the same period last year. Level, there will be no more substantial price increases, and it can ensure that there is no shortage of meat in the bowls of the people during the New Year."
The blocking point still needs to be solved, the transformation task is arduous
The reporter learned that in some places, there are still problems such as the imbalance of production capacity recovery between regions and the lack of confidence in small and medium-sized farms.
Appropriate scale operation is the only way for the high-quality development of the pig industry, but there is still a considerable gap between the scale of pig farming in my country and developed countries, poor facilities and equipment, and low production efficiency.
Affected by the continued threat of the African swine fever epidemic, increased business risks, and unsatisfactory transformation and upgrading, there are still unbalanced, inadequate, and irrational problems with the stable production and supply of live pigs.
Chen Zhiyong, deputy director of the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Hubei Province, said that the province’s live pig manure production amounted to 105 million tons, high processing costs and difficult pollution control. The risk of major animal diseases such as African swine fever is still severe, and the sustainable development of the pig industry is still facing serious problems. huge pressure.
Hu Hanping said that due to the shortage of breeding sows in the early stage and the tight supply of piglets, the recovery of production capacity is not stable.
The construction of the grassroots animal epidemic prevention system is relatively lagging, and the epidemic prevention force is weak, and it is not compatible with the new situation of African swine fever prevention and control.
The responsible comrades of the agricultural and rural departments in many places interviewed by the reporter all stated that the continued prevention and control of the African swine fever epidemic is the basis for the continuous and stable recovery of pig production capacity.
As the temperature drops in autumn and winter, the cleaning and disinfection effect may be affected. In addition, the frequent transportation of breeding pigs and piglets will further increase the risk of epidemic occurrence and spread. If epidemic prevention measures are not implemented in place, regional epidemics may not be ruled out, and the impact may even be affected. Block the production of pigs and speed up the recovery process.
Chen Guanghua said that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will instruct all localities to strengthen normalized prevention and control, strictly supervise breeding, transportation, slaughter, and harmless treatment, and strive to minimize the impact of the African swine fever epidemic.
Insist on carrying out entry sampling monitoring, continuously improving sampling measures, and urging and guiding farmers to implement biosafety management measures.
At the same time, speed up the construction of African swine fever-free communities, and strive to build a number of high-quality disease-free communities across the country by the end of the year, and promote the improvement of the biosafety protection level of farmers.
Experts suggest that we should take advantage of the current good opportunity for the price of piglets to fall, promote the models of "company + farmer", trusteeship, and equity participation, insist on focusing on the big and not letting go, improve the interest linkage mechanism, and rely on leading enterprises to drive small and medium-sized farms to resume production. To accelerate the formation of actual production capacity.
On the one hand, it is necessary to focus on the improvement of livestock and poultry breeding, the facility of breeding, the standardization of production, the institutionalization of epidemic prevention, and the harmlessness of manure, and establish a standardized demonstration farm for livestock and poultry breeding.
On the other hand, it is necessary to improve the mechanization level of large-scale breeding farms, increase the support of the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy to the livestock industry, and accelerate the mechanization of the production of large-scale breeding farms.
Qiao Jinliang