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(Economic Observation) Can China's economy recover steadily during the post-epidemic period?　

　　China News Service, Beijing, October 26 (Reporter Chen Su) The third quarter economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that China's economy is on the path of recovery.

Looking ahead, what risks will China's economy face?

Can the recovery momentum be maintained?

During the "High-quality Economic Development in the Post-epidemic Period: China's Economy in 2025-"Economic Research" 65th Anniversary and "Economic Trends" 60th Anniversary Symposium" hosted by the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, many Experts and scholars discussed China's economic prospects.

　　From the perspective of academic circles, external risks are the biggest challenge facing China's economy in the next stage. In the future development strategy, "security" has also been mentioned as an important position.

　　"In 2021, China's economy will still face many uncertainties. The biggest uncertainty comes from the world. Changes in the international political landscape, dominated by the US general election, and new developments in the global epidemic may all have an impact on China." Tsinghua University Chinese Economy Li Daokui, Dean of the Institute of Thought and Practice, said.

　　Gao Peiyong, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China’s proposal to build a new development pattern with a domestic cycle as the main body and mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles is a deployment made against the background of threats to China’s economic security. The supply chain is threatened under the epidemic, and the certainty of the domestic cycle needs to be used to deal with the uncertainty of the international cycle.

In the face of external risks, the Chinese economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025) must focus not only on scale, growth, quality, and efficiency, but also on safety, adding the word "safety" to development.

　　In the face of external challenges, in order to achieve stable economic development, Chinese senior officials have made a strategic layout to build a new development pattern.

How to build a new development pattern has become an important issue for the Chinese economy.

　　Liu Wei, President of Renmin University of China, said that to build a new development pattern is to achieve coordinated and balanced development, to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand in the new development stage, to change the development mode, to focus on the supply side, to consolidate, strengthen, and smooth the national production system. Improve supply-side efficiency.

At the same time, it is necessary to take the expansion of domestic demand as the starting point and market demand to drive supply-side structural reforms, further open the "Belt and Road", and realize the mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles.

　　"The most important thing in the dual-cycle pattern is the supply side issue." Fan Gang, director of the China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, said that in the face of the supply of key industries being cut off, China needs to pay more attention to independent innovation to make up for its shortcomings.

　　In addition to boosting the supply side and key industries, expanding domestic demand is an important link for China's economic recovery of endogenous power and smoothing the domestic cycle.

Experts pointed out that the focus of China's economic work in the next phase is to find ways to release domestic demand.

　　"Affected by the epidemic, the propensity of Chinese residents to consume has declined significantly this year." Ma Jiantang, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, said that consumption is a slow variable in the economy. The new development pattern of "circulation" and the use of China's super-large-scale market advantages require further consumption.

It is recommended to adjust income distribution as a strategic goal in the next stage, strive to increase the income of low-income groups, liberalize population birth restrictions, release long-term consumption potential, accelerate reforms in the public service sector, continue to optimize the consumption environment, and release household consumption in various ways.

　　Li Daokui said that the primary task of China's economic recovery in the post-epidemic period is to release domestic demand. The key is to increase the income level of residents, further increase the disposable income of middle-income groups and low- and middle-income groups, and strengthen tax reduction policies in labor and employment. The release of consumption potential creates good conditions.

　　Faced with multiple challenges, can China's economy achieve sustained recovery?

　　Cai Fang, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China has contained the epidemic, and the resumption of business and the market has progressed smoothly. Among the countries in the world, the economy has recovered the best. If the world economy will recover in a "V" shape this year, it is the closest to "V". China is undoubtedly recovering from the “type”, but at the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the imbalance in the recovery, further improve the social security mechanism, increase redistribution, avoid the subsequent impact of the epidemic on some groups, and take advantage of the middle-income stage.

　　Li Daokui said that due to the low economic growth base in 2020, if a series of policies can be adjusted in 2021 and a series of tasks can be done in place, if there are no major shocks and changes in the international situation, China's economy should be able to step out of comparison next year. On a good trajectory, the growth rate may reach more than 7%.

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