Double or cut?
Investors replay "a thrilling day"
From now on, you must sign the "Risk Disclosure Form" to purchase or purchase convertible bonds
From an average daily trading volume of more than 20 billion to a trading volume of 190 billion, the convertible bonds only took one week.
In view of the recent frenzied performance of the convertible bond market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced that they will be implemented on October 26 to address the phenomenon of individual convertible bonds being over-hyped, rising and falling, and focusing on solving investor suitability management problems. "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Appropriate Management of Convertible Corporate Bonds Issued to Unspecified Objects." Investors who have not signed the "Risk Disclosure Letter" cannot apply for or purchase convertible bonds and already hold relevant convertible bonds. Investors of debt can choose to continue to hold, convert to equity, sell back or sell.
"This is a risk education"
After the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed on October 23, Liu Xiao still resumed his trading on convertible bonds on the computer that day.
He used the Flush trading software to open a "smart convertible debt" time-sharing chart. On this time-sharing chart, the "B (buy)" and "S (sell)" points of the transaction record were densely along the curve. distributed.
"This is the charm of T+0. I used 300,000 funds to achieve the effect of 5 million yuan." Liu Xiao's 300,000 funds were traded on smart convertible bonds nearly 20 times on the same day, and the transaction volume exceeded 5 million. The yield on this convertible bond is as high as 36%.
The “smart convertible bond” performed well in the convertible bond market that day. The convertible bond opened at a 10% daily limit on the same day, and then instantly touched the 20% temporary trading suspension point in Shenzhen Stock Exchange. After half an hour, it rushed up again within 3 seconds. 30% temporary suspension price.
After the second temporary suspension, the time-sharing chart of "smart convertible bonds" was like a wild horse, rushing to a maximum increase of 148%. It once dived to about 58% around 11:17, but was quickly pulled up by funds. It was hovering around 100% before 14:40. After 14:44, as a large number of convertible bonds dived at a high level, "smart convertible bonds" also began to dive. It was once killed to around 30%, and the final closing gain was 48.28%.
In the afternoon of the same day, many strong convertible bonds in early trading dived late. Wanli Convertible Bonds, Haar Convertible Bonds, Kyushu Convertible Bonds, Jiuwu Convertible Bonds, etc. fell 20% to trigger a temporary stop. As of the close, Wanli Convertible Bonds fell 26.72%. Kyushu convertible bonds fell 20.35%, Hal convertible bonds fell 20.25%, and more than 20 such as Jiuwu convertible bonds and Tongde convertible bonds fell more than 10%.
Some netizens said in Tieba, "Today I will not play anymore after I lost 60,000 in the principal of 100,000".
"This is a thrilling day. A little grasp of the rhythm is the difference between doubling and cutting in half." Liu Xiao said, "Although I trade this convertible bond all day, I rarely hold shares for more than 5 minutes between transactions. , The fastest one is to buy one second before, and one second later, as soon as the situation is not right, it will be sold immediately."
Liu Xiao said that in the past week, most of the friends around who traded convertible bonds made money, because the market is here, and most of the people who lost money or even cut up were newcomers who did convertible bonds. They saw that others were making money. However, he impulsively came in without knowing the rules.
"Most people are not suitable for convertible bond trading, especially for novices. They trade impulsively, have no concept of position control, and no trading techniques to stop loss and take profit. The trend of convertible bonds on Friday is for these people. A risk education."
"Retail investors do not have T+0 professional trading knowledge"
Liu Xiao said that the biggest feature of the ratio of convertible bonds to Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks is the T+0 trading system and no price limit.
In fact, the A-share market has a long history of debate on whether to implement T+0.
More and more voices are calling for A shares to integrate with overseas markets as soon as possible and implement the "T+0" trading system.
In August this year, Xiao Gang, the former chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an interview with the media that in the long run, the implementation of the T+0 trading system in the A-share market is a direction for future reforms, but he said that the pilot program can start with blue chip stocks.
The latest research report of Haitong Securities also stated that A-shares do not currently have comprehensive "T+0" conditions. There are two possible paths from point to surface. One is to pilot the blue chip under the cash account, and the other is from the branch under the two financial accounts. Innovation board pilot.
If T+0 is to be implemented in A shares, referring to Taiwan’s experience in promoting the T+0 system under the cash bond account, large-cap blue chip stocks may be pilot projects due to their large market value and small fluctuations.
A reporter from Beijing Youth Daily asked a number of A-share investors. In this regard, T+0 investor Li Tie believes that it is better to open up late than early. In the case of T+1, retail investors are more likely to be harvested. For the popular stocks Hengxin Technology and Zhengchuan, after a large number of retail investors were attacked by the dealer, they hit the lower limit on the same day. Because it is T+1, the retail investor can only eat another lower limit the next day, and if it is T+0, the dealer If you dare to hit the market, retail investors will definitely run faster.
The opponent Wang Wen said that the current A-share market is dominated by retail investors, who do not have the professional trading knowledge of T+0, but are easier to harvest.
Liu Xiao said that the trading volume of convertible bonds rose from about 20 billion to 190 billion a week, which fully reflects the enthusiasm of investors for T+0.
This can be used as a T+0 test field to accumulate experience for future reforms.
"Investors with low risk appetite should stay away"
In fact, convertible bonds are not like stocks. It is difficult to accurately price stocks. However, the pricing of convertible bonds is basically aimed at the conversion value. In the end, convertible bonds return to the conversion value or the face value of the bond.
Convertible bonds have been highly active since last week, but the overall performance of the stock market over the same period has been sluggish, and there have even been flash crashes of some popular stocks. The underlying stocks and convertible bonds have shown a trend of divergence.
One of the main risks of the convertible bond speculation lies in the mandatory early redemption of listed companies. Since the beginning of this year, many convertible bonds have plummeted because of the early mandatory redemption issued by listed companies.
It is understood that there are generally two conditions for compulsory redemption: one is that the stock price has risen to 130% of the conversion price for at least 15 trading days in 30 consecutive trading days, and the other is that the circulating amount is less than 30 million yuan.
Once the company announces a strong redemption, unless the underlying stock rises sharply before the last trading day, investors will face huge losses.
Zhu Linning said that investment in convertible bonds still needs to pay attention to the fundamentals of listed companies, the trend of underlying stocks and the intrinsic value of convertible bonds.
High conversion premium rate, high turnover rate, and high closing price convertible bonds should be avoided in time.
Li Daxiao, chief economist of Yingda Securities, said that convertible bonds are actually closely related to the stock price of listed companies. When the stock price is greatly exceeded, serious risks will appear. After all, the bond yield of convertible bonds is low, and excessive prices mean returns. The long period.
The sharp deviation from the price corresponding to the stock price can only be a competition of trading skills rather than an investment based on investment value, but a trading skill competition under the T+0 rule.
The convertible bonds have obvious risks, and investors with low risk appetite should stay away.
Excessive pursuit of convertible bonds is no longer sensible. Extremes bet that the holding period of convertible bonds is shorter than 10 minutes.
"Include convertible bond transactions into key monitoring"
The China Securities Regulatory Commission publicly solicited opinions on the "Administrative Measures for Convertible Corporate Bonds (Draft for Comment)" on October 23. In response to the recent phenomenon that individual convertible bonds have been excessively speculated, the "Management Measures" focus on investment Issues such as inadequate management of investor suitability, lack of checks and balances in the transaction system, unequal rights and responsibilities between issuers and investors, incomplete daily monitoring, and lack of entrusted management systems. Through the improvement of transaction transfer, investor suitability, information disclosure, and convertible bonds Various systems such as the protection of rights and interests of holders, redemption and sale-back clauses, prevent transaction risks and strengthen investor protection.
At the same time, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges voiced that they would include convertible bond transactions into key monitoring and implement supervision and self-discipline measures.
At the same time, brokerage firms have issued notices to investors, requiring them to sign a new "Risk Disclosure Letter" before participating in the purchase and transaction of convertible bonds before October 26, otherwise they cannot participate in the transaction.
The Shenzhen Stock Exchange emphasized that recently, the convertible bond market has been actively traded and prices fluctuated sharply. The trading prices of individual convertible bonds have seriously deviated from the company's stock price.
In the next step, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will continue to thoroughly implement the nine-character policy of "building a system, non-intervention, and zero tolerance", continue to do a good job in transaction supervision, strengthen joint supervision of transactions and information disclosure, and study and improve the trading system of convertible bonds including temporary suspensions , Effectively prevent market risks, effectively maintain market transaction order, and fully protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors.
For some stockholders who are eager to enter the convertible bond market, a veteran convertible bond trading veteran at Tao Stock Bar warns: In the convertible bond market, people without discipline will return the money to the market even if they make money. .
(In the text, Liu Xiao, Li Tie, and Wang Wen are all pseudonyms)
Text / reporter Zhu Kaiyun