China News Service, October 23. Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said today that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has seriously affected the stability of the global economy and finance this year.
The external environment facing China's foreign exchange receipts and payments is complex and severe.
However, under the support of domestic fundamentals, the balance of China’s international balance of payments is better than expected, the renminbi exchange rate is more robust than expected, foreign exchange market transactions are more rational than expected, and cross-border two-way investment activity is better than expected .
Judging from the second half of the year, the steady development of the foreign exchange market has become more stable, and the operation of the main indicators has shown a steady and positive trend.
The Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on the 23rd. At the meeting, a reporter asked about my country's foreign exchange revenue and expenditure situation in the first three quarters and its prediction of future trends. Wang Chunying disclosed the above information.
Wang Chunying said, specifically, it is divided into the following aspects:
First, the balance of payments remained basically balanced, and foreign exchange reserves were generally stable.
In the first half of the year, my country's current account maintained a surplus of US$76.5 billion, accounting for 1.2% of GDP, and continued to stay within a reasonable balance range.
Judging from the data released in the third quarter, the scale of import and export of goods trade reached a new high.
At the same time, affected by the epidemic, cross-border service trade expenditures are still falling, and the scale of the service trade deficit is still narrowing.
Under the influence of these two factors, we believe that the current account of China's balance of payments in the third quarter can still be maintained in a basically balanced state.
Therefore, with the overall balance of international payments, China's foreign exchange reserves stabilized at more than 3.1 trillion US dollars at the end of September.
Second, the renminbi exchange rate has become more flexible and has performed steadily among major currencies in the world.
Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has risen and depreciated, forming a pattern of two-way fluctuations and maintaining relatively high flexibility.
The one-year implied volatility of the domestic option market is 5%, and the fluctuation range of the highest price and the lowest price is 7.5%, which is a reasonable and moderate range globally.
Other major currencies, the euro, the yen, and the pound sterling are all at the 7%-9% volatility level. The volatility of the renminbi has been below 2% for a long time in the past, and it is now 5%, reflecting the increased flexibility.
In the first three quarters, the spot exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar increased slightly by 2.3%.
In the second half of the year, affected by internal and external factors such as the first recovery of the domestic economy and the fall of the US dollar index, domestic transaction prices returned to the level of 6.6-6.7%.
Horizontally, the dollar index fell 2.5% in the first three quarters, the euro appreciated 4.5% against the dollar, the yen appreciated 2.8% against the dollar, the pound depreciated 3.3%, and the emerging market currency index fell 12.2%.
From this point of view, the renminbi is clearly stronger than other emerging market currencies, and is in the middle of the performance compared to major developed countries.
In the future, the relative advantages of domestic economic fundamentals will continue to play a fundamental role in stabilizing the foreign exchange market. However, considering the uncertainty and instability of external factors, the RMB exchange rate will still fluctuate around a reasonable equilibrium level.
Third, market behavior is more rational, and foreign exchange supply and demand continue to show a basic balance.
This year’s foreign exchange settlement and sale transactions have such a characteristic that customers “settled foreign exchange on highs and bought foreign exchange on lows”. This is a more rational performance of the market, and the awareness of risk control is also increasing.
Looking at the relevant indicators of forward options in the foreign exchange market that can reflect exchange rate expectations, exchange rate expectations remain generally stable, and there is no obvious unilateral expectation.
This is not only conducive to the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and equilibrium level, but also to the independent balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
Fourth, cross-border two-way investment remains active, and cross-border capital flows are stable and orderly.
From the perspective of foreign capital inflows into the country, the Ministry of Commerce announced that the scale of foreign direct investment in China from January to September this year was 103.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.5%, and an increase of 18% in the third quarter. According to the statistics of the Foreign Exchange Administration, from January to September this year, foreign investors increased their domestic holdings Of bonds and stocks reached 132.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 47%.
Looking at cross-border capital outflows, foreign direct investment in the first three quarters of this year was US$78.9 billion, a slight drop of 2.6% year-on-year; domestic entities purchased 424.4 billion yuan of Hong Kong stocks through "Southbound Trading".
Wang Chunying said that looking forward to the future, with the support of domestic economic, policy, market and other factors, China's foreign exchange market has the conditions to continue its steady development.
First of all, domestic epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery have leading advantages in the world, and production, service, and consumption provide very strong support.
These will continue to play a role in enhancing confidence and stabilizing expectations.
Secondly, my country insists on promoting financial reform and opening up, and it is a two-way opening. Measures to promote trade and investment facilitation continue to advance and continue to exert efforts to create a good policy environment for the two-way and balanced flow of cross-border capital.
At the same time, my country is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with domestic and international double cycles as the main body, which will promote high-level opening up and further improve the quality of cross-border two-way investment.
Third, from the perspective of market conditions, the RMB exchange rate has maintained a relatively high flexibility.
The role of exchange rate adjustment in macroeconomics and the automatic stabilizer of international payments has been further brought into play.
At the same time, the two-in-one management framework of "macro prudence and micro regulation" in the foreign exchange market is constantly improving, which can better absorb the impact of external shocks.
Wang Chunying also pointed out that the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the world continues, and external instability and uncertainties still exist.
Therefore, we will adhere to the bottom line thinking, strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of the two-way flow of cross-border funds, and increase risk awareness.
We will not only adhere to the reform and opening up in the foreign exchange field, but also improve risk prevention and control capabilities, and effectively maintain the balance of international payments and the security of the country's economy and finance.