China News Service, October 21. The end of the year is the peak season for pork consumption. Will pork prices rise again?
Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said on the 21st that in the near future, experts will be organized to analyze and calculate, taking into account factors such as the recovery of pig production, pork imports, and changes in consumer demand. During the New Year's Day and Spring Festival next year, the supply of pork will increase year-on-year. About 30%, the price will generally be lower than the level of the same period of the previous year, and there will be no more substantial price increases, which can ensure that the people will not lack meat during the Chinese New Year.
Data map: A supermarket in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, citizens are buying pork.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun
On the morning of the 21st, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference on the agricultural and rural economic situation in the first three quarters of 2020.
In response to reporters’ questions, Chen Guanghua responded that, driven by the market and policies, the country’s live pig production has continued to recover since the beginning of this year, and pig farmers have been highly motivated to replenish slaughter.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, by September this year, the stock of reproductive sows has increased for 12 consecutive months, and the stock of live pigs has also increased for 8 consecutive months. Especially in June and July this year, the stock of reproductive sows and pigs have been realized successively. Year-on-year growth, these are two important turning points in time for the recovery of pig production.
The growth rate further expanded in August and September. At the end of September, the number of breeding sows increased by 28% year-on-year, and the pig stock increased by 20.7% year-on-year. Following this trend, we are confident that we can achieve the goal of recovering the annual pig production capacity to near normal levels.
Chen Guanghua pointed out that since the beginning of this year, with the recovery of live pig production, the pork market has generally shown an improvement in supply and a decline in price fluctuations.
From the perspective of production, since March this year, the number of live pigs for slaughter has increased sequentially for 7 consecutive months, which shows that the newly-added production capacity in the early stage is gradually being released and production capacity is becoming output.
At the same time, imported pork is also increasing. Imports from January to September were 3.286 million tons, an increase of 132.2% year-on-year. From the perspective of market prices, this trend is also confirmed.
After February, the pork market price showed an overall trend of oscillating and falling. Especially since September, pork prices have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, and there has been no general increase in pork prices during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in previous years.
Last week, the price of pork in national bazaars has fallen to 50.56 yuan per kilogram, which is more than 9 yuan lower than the highest price in mid-February.
Chen Guanghua said that the pork supply situation will get better and better in the future. Recently organized experts to analyze and calculate, comprehensively considering factors such as the recovery of pig production, pork imports, changes in consumer demand, etc., during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival next year, the supply of pork will increase by about 30% year-on-year, and the price will generally be lower than the same period last year. , There will be no more substantial price increases, which can ensure that there is no shortage of meat in the bowls of the people during the New Year.