Pork prices have fallen for 7 consecutive weeks! Will it rise by the end of the year? Authoritative response

　　Chinanews client, Beijing, October 21st (Reporter Li Jinlei) How much has the price of pork dropped?

Will it rise sharply again at the end of the year?

Can there be a bumper harvest of food?

On October 21, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference to give an authoritative response.

Data map: A supermarket in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, citizens are buying pork.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

Pork prices fell for 7 consecutive weeks

　　The soaring "Second Brother" finally cooled down.

　　Wei Baigang, chief economist of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and director of the Development Planning Department, pointed out that the recovery of live pig production was better than expected. With the rapid recovery of live pig production and the increase in slaughter, the

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, pork prices in September increased by 25.5% year-on-year, a sharp drop of 27.1 percentage points from the previous month. From a month-on-month perspective, pork prices changed from a 1.2% increase in the previous month to a decrease of 1.6%, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.08 percentage point.

　　The main reason for the fall in pork prices is the increase in production and supply.

Since the beginning of this year, driven by the market and policies, the country's live pig production has continued to recover, and pig farmers have been highly motivated to replenish slaughter.

　　The data shows that in the first three quarters, 12,500 large-scale pig farms were newly put into production and 13,400 vacant large-scale pig farms were re-raised.

By the end of September, the national live pig inventory reached 370 million, which was restored to 84% at the end of 2017; the breeding sow population reached 38.22 million, which was restored to 86% at the end of 2017.

　　Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that in June and July this year, the stocks of reproductive sows and live pigs have achieved year-on-year growth. These are two important turning points for the recovery of live pig production.

The growth rate further expanded in August and September. At the end of September, the number of breeding sows increased by 28% year-on-year, and the pig stock increased by 20.7% year-on-year. Following this trend, we are confident that we can achieve the goal of recovering the annual pig production capacity to near normal levels.

Data map: Pork being sold in the supermarket.

Photo by Chinanews reporter Li Jinlei

"It

　　The price of pork has fallen for 7 consecutive weeks, but will the price of pork rise again at the end of the peak consumption season?

　　Chen Guanghua said that since the beginning of this year, with the recovery of live pig production, the pork market has generally shown an improvement in supply and a decline in prices.

From the perspective of production, since March this year, the number of live pigs for slaughter has increased sequentially for 7 consecutive months, which shows that the newly-added production capacity in the early stage is gradually being released and production capacity is becoming output.

At the same time, imported pork is also increasing. Imports from January to September were 3.286 million tons, an increase of 132.2% year-on-year. From the perspective of market prices, this trend is also confirmed.

　　"After February, the pork market price has generally fluctuated and declined. Especially since September, pork prices have fallen for 7 consecutive weeks. There has been no general increase in pork prices during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in previous years." Chen Guanghua said.

　　"In the coming period, the pork supply situation will get better and better." Chen Guanghua predicts that, taking into account factors such as the recovery of live pig production, pork imports, and changes in consumer demand, the supply of pork will increase by about 30% during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival next year. , The price will generally be lower than the level of the same period of the previous year,

Data map: Rice farmers smile at the harvest of rice.

Photo by Hua Yanming

The annual grain output is expected to hit a record high

　　After talking about pork prices, let’s take a look at the food issues that everyone is concerned about.

　　Wei Baigang said that there was another bumper harvest throughout the year.

The output of summer grain and early rice both increased, reaching 340.2 billion jin, an increase of 4.48 billion jin over the previous year. In particular, the area of ​​early rice reversed its downward trend for seven consecutive years.

The autumn grain harvest is close to 80%, and a bumper harvest is a foregone conclusion.

　　Liu Lihua, deputy director of the Planting Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that this year is indeed a disaster-prone year for agriculture. It has gone through multiple passes. The spring plowing preparation has passed the "new crown epidemic". Southern rice doubles the time. After passing the "flood and waterlogging pass", passing the "typhoon pass" before the autumn harvest in the northeast, and passing the "pests and diseases pass" such as Spodoptera litura, frequent disasters do face multiple challenges to food production.

It is not easy to get a bumper harvest this year.

　　Regarding the reasons for the bumper grain harvest, Liu Lihua believes that on the one hand, the grain area has increased this year.

Preliminary calculations show that the increase in grain area this year has contributed more than 50% to the increase in production.

On the other hand, it has achieved disaster relief and harvest.

The disasters this year are relatively severe and many passes have passed. Technical measures to reduce disasters and increase production have been put in place. In addition, the matching of light, temperature and water in most areas is good for crop growth. In particular, there is more rainfall this year and dryland crops are growing well. , Conducive to the increase in yield.

　　"Our country has a vast territory and disasters occur every year. The damage in some areas does not mean that the country's grain production is reduced. The drought that has the greatest impact on our country's grain production is the drought. The annual grain loss due to drought accounts for about half of the annual grain loss. , But this year everyone clearly feels that there is a lot of rain and the impact of drought is obviously lighter, which is generally good for food production." Liu Lihua said.

(Finish)