The World Bank, IMF, Moody's and others have raised their expectations for my country's economic growth——
Why are international institutions generally optimistic about China's economy
Economic Daily·China Economic Net reporter Xiong Li
□ Recently, many international institutions such as the World Bank have raised their expectations for my country's economic growth.
Experts believe that leading the world in the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic recovery is an important reason why international institutions are optimistic about my country's economy.
□ The huge domestic demand market, the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, the consolidation of the supply chain of the industrial chain, the development of import substitution industries brought about by technological innovation, the digital economy, regional coordination and urbanization, a new round of high-level opening up, etc., are China The main growth driver of the economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released a report stating that the global economy is expected to shrink by 4.4% in 2020, while the Chinese economy will grow by 1.9%, making it the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth.
In addition to the IMF, many international institutions such as the World Bank have recently raised their expectations for my country's economic growth.
Experts believe that leading the world in the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic recovery is an important reason why international institutions are optimistic about my country's economy.
At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still spreading around the world, and the foundation for the recovery of the world economy is not yet solid. my country should do a solid job of "six stability", fully implement the "six guarantees" task, accelerate the creation of a new development pattern, and improve the ability to resist risks.
Economic recovery is stronger than expected
In fact, the IMF is not the only international institution that is optimistic about our economy.
The World Bank recently released a report predicting that China's economic growth rate will reach 2% this year, up 1 percentage point from the 1% projected in early June. At the same time, China's economy is expected to grow by 7.9% next year.
Earlier, the international rating agency Moody's updated its global macro outlook report, raising China's economic growth forecast for this year from 1% to 1.9%, and it is also expected that China's economy will grow by about 7% next year.
In its September Global Economic Outlook report, Fitch also raised China's 2020 growth forecast from 1.2% to 2.7%, and it also predicts that China's economy will grow by 7.7% next year.
According to the IMF report, China's economic recovery is stronger than expected, and there are signs that the pace of recovery has accelerated in the third quarter, which is an important reason for the upward adjustment of global economic growth expectations.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Academy of Policy Sciences, believes that international institutions’ upward adjustment of their economic growth expectations is based on changes in the situation and the actual performance of the Chinese economy.
my country's epidemic control and resumption of work and production are both at the forefront of the world, and major economic indicators such as investment, consumption, and import and export are improving quarter by quarter.
Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank and member of the Academic Committee of the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that my country's economy can take the lead in stabilizing at a time when the global economy is precarious, mainly due to three points: successful epidemic prevention measures, and flexible and appropriate macroeconomic policy adjustments. , Unswerving opening to the outside world stabilized foreign trade and foreign investment, and stabilized expectations.
Liu Xiaoguang, assistant to the director of the Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, believes that international institutions are generally optimistic about my country’s economy. On the one hand, it is based on the strong rebound of my country’s economy; on the other hand, it is based on the outstanding performance of my country’s economy in responding to external shocks. China’s resilience and macro-control capabilities are full of confidence in future economic trends.
Economic momentum accelerates recovery
The momentum and vitality of my country's economic recovery can be seen from the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday this year.
According to statistics, from October 1st to 8th, the national retail and catering key monitoring enterprises have sales of about 1.6 trillion yuan, and the average daily sales increased by 4.9% over the National Day holiday last year.
A total of 637 million domestic tourists were received throughout the country, a year-on-year recovery of 79.0% on a comparable basis; domestic tourism income was 466.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year recovery of 69.9% on a comparable basis.
Since the beginning of this year, in the face of a sudden and severe epidemic, my country has coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, solidly carried out the "six stability" work, fully implemented the "six guarantees" task, and formulated a series of relief policies to benefit enterprises. Tax cuts and fees were reduced by about 2.5 trillion yuan, and a number of measures were introduced to strengthen employment priority, promote investment and consumption, stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, and stabilize the supply chain of the industrial chain.
The rebound in demand, the acceleration of investment, and the recovery of consumption have gradually strengthened the overall economy.
In the first eight months of this year, my country’s economic recovery trend is obvious: from January to August, the cumulative growth rate of industrial value added and exports of goods above designated size turned positive for the first time in this year, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment was close to turning positive, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in August were year-on-year. The growth rate turned positive for the first time this year.
The PMI data released a few days ago showed that the three major purchasing manager indexes in September were all in the expansion range for 7 consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in market expectations.
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, the total value of my country’s imports and exports of goods trade in the first three quarters was 23.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The cumulative total value of imports and exports achieved a positive year-on-year growth for the first time in the year. Value and total import value both hit a quarterly record high.
In Wang Jun’s view, the huge domestic demand market, the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, the consolidation of the industrial supply chain, the development of import substitution industries brought about by technological innovation, the digital economy, regional coordination and urbanization, and a new round of high-level external Opening up is the main growth driver of China's economy.
“Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the path for my country’s economic recovery is very clear. The epidemic was effectively controlled in the first quarter and the bottom line was successfully maintained. The supply side was basically restored with the resumption of work and production in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, demand continued to rebound under the full force of large-scale policies. A new round of reform dividends is gradually emerging. my country's economy has shown a relatively strong quarter-to-quarter recovery throughout the year. It is expected to usher in a period of rapid economic growth from the second half of the year to the first half of next year." Liu Xiaoguang said.
Significant contribution to the global economy
Due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the global economy is facing a deep recession.
The IMF predicts that the global economy will shrink by 4.4% in 2020, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the June forecast, and the degree of recession has eased.
Xu Hongcai believes that because my country's economy accounts for a relatively large volume in the global economy, the upward adjustment of my country's growth expectations has correspondingly led to an upward adjustment of global expectations.
"As the world's only economy that is expected to achieve positive growth in 2020, my country's economic growth's contribution to the world is obvious. From all aspects, it far exceeds its contribution during the last round of the international financial crisis. Especially in the global trade contraction. Against the background of the background, my country’s total import and export of goods trade in the first three quarters has achieved positive growth, which has played a huge'stabilizer' function for maintaining the effective operation of the global industrial chain and supply chain." Liu Xiaoguang believes.
Statistics show that in the first eight months of this year, Chinese companies invested US$11.8 billion in non-financial direct investment in countries along the “Belt and Road”, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%.
In the first half of the year, my country’s investment in ASEAN reached 6.23 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 53.1% year-on-year; from January to August this year, my country’s total trade with ASEAN exceeded 416.5 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 3.8% against the trend, realizing that the two sides are each other’s largest trading partners. Historic breakthrough.
In the first six months of this year, China-Europe Express trains increased 30.9% year-on-year in import and export goods, becoming a "steel camel team" that stabilizes the international supply chain.
Liu Xiaoguang believes that although my country's economic recovery is faster than expected, the global economic outlook is still not optimistic.
In the next step, as my country's economic recovery enters a new stage, the focus of economic work must shift from administrative resumption of work and production to rapid expansion of effective demand, actively respond to external risks and challenges, deepen mid- and long-term reforms, and strive to open up production, distribution, circulation, and In all aspects of consumption, my country will cultivate new advantages in participating in international cooperation and competition under the new situation.
Xu Hongcai believes that there is still potential for the recovery of current consumption. It is necessary to continue to do a good job in the "six stability", fully implement the "six guarantees" task, increase the income of residents, especially the income level of the middle and low groups, and continue to promote digital transformation, "two new and one heavy" "Building and optimizing the business environment.
Wang Jun suggested that the relative stability of macroeconomic policies should be maintained.
In the future, we should pay attention to new consumption hotspots such as new consumption, service consumption, and upgraded consumption driven by the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations; actively expand effective investment and give full play to the key role of investment in economic recovery.
In addition, it is necessary to improve the economic and financial management capabilities and the ability to prevent and control risks under open conditions.
Xiong Li