How are prices everywhere?

September 19, CPI returned to "1 era" Hainan's lowest

  China-Singapore Jingwei Client, October 20th (Dai Congfei) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in September.

Data show that the September CPI increase in 19 provinces was less than 2%.

Many institutions believe that there is little pressure on prices to rise in the fourth quarter, and CPI may continue to fall.

19 provinces CPI return to "1 era"

  In September, the national CPI rose by 1.7% year-on-year, returning to the "1 era" after 18 months.

In terms of provinces, the CPI of 9 provinces including Liaoning, Shandong, and Gansu increased by more than 2% year-on-year; the CPI of Jilin, Anhui, and Shaanxi increased by 2% year-on-year. The CPI of the remaining 19 provinces all returned to the "1 era".

  In September, the year-on-year increase in CPI in 16 provinces was higher than the national average. Yunnan, Qinghai, and Shandong ranked the top three. It is worth noting that Yunnan is the only province whose CPI is still in the "three eras".

In addition, the growth rates of Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Jiangxi were the same as those of the whole country.

The CPI growth rate of 12 provinces was lower than that of the whole country, of which the CPI growth rate of Xinjiang and Hainan was less than 1% year-on-year.

Pig prices drive CPI down

  In September, food prices rose by 7.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, which affected the CPI increase by about 1.69 percentage points.

Among them, pork prices rose by 25.5% year-on-year, a sharp drop of 27.1 percentage points from the previous month.

  Source: Screenshot of the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

  Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that with the continuous recovery of live pig production and the continuous improvement of stocks, the stock of pork has increased, the supply of pork has increased, and the price has changed from rising to falling.

  The national CPI in September accelerated to 1.7% year-on-year, which was lower than market expectations.

Guosheng Securities believes that pork prices have stopped rising and turned down, and the seasonal fall in vegetable prices are the main factors dragging down the CPI.

Donghai Futures pointed out that pork price growth has slowed marginally, and its impact on CPI has begun to weaken.

It is expected that as the pig cycle resumes, the increase in meat supply is still a major trend, and pork prices may gradually fall.

At present, the demand side has recovered, and household consumption has gradually improved, which will help support food items and CPI.

But in the long run, due to the manifestation of the base effect and the slow recovery of demand, the monetary policy margin is tightened, and the CPI will remain below 2.0% in the fourth quarter.

CPI may continue to decline during the year

  For future CPI trends, many institutions are expected to continue to decline.

  SPDB International said that food prices will drive the overall CPI to continue to decline, and will offset the impact of the service price rebound. In addition to the last year’s CPI carry-over factor, the year-on-year increase in CPI is expected to narrow slightly, and it will remain at 1-2% in the second half of the year. Range.

  Minsheng Securities believes that in the short term, the CPI will continue to fall year-on-year, and is expected to fall below 1% within the year, and may rise again after February next year.

  Northeast Securities pointed out that pork prices have continued to decline since October, and fresh vegetable prices have also fallen.

In the past, pork prices tended to fall in October, coupled with the gradual recovery of production capacity this year, the price decline trend will continue.

The upward momentum of international oil prices is insufficient, and its role in pushing up prices of related products has weakened.

Given the high base in October last year, even if the price of tourism, movies and other related prices has accelerated since October this year, it is difficult to prevent the CPI from falling below 1% year-on-year.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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