In September, the year-on-year increase of CPI returned to "1 era"——

High before low, stable prices have a foundation

  Our reporter Qiu Haifeng

  "People's Daily Overseas Edition" (October 17, 2020 Edition 03)

  According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 15th, in September, the national consumer price rose by 1.7% year-on-year, which was 0.7% lower than the previous month, and fell below 2% for the first time this year.

In this regard, relevant sources analyzed and pointed out that after the year-on-year increase of more than 5% for two consecutive months at the beginning of this year, the overall CPI increase has kept falling.

From the perspective of the whole year, the trend of consumer prices is relatively obvious.

  Pork prices have changed from rising to falling

  On the basis of a 2 percentage point drop in the previous month, food prices rose further in September.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in September, food prices rose by 7.9% year-on-year, and the increase was 3.3 percentage points lower than the previous month.

  Since the beginning of this year, price changes have been mainly affected by changes in food prices, the most prominent being changes in pork prices.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher from the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed to this reporter that with the introduction and implementation of a series of targeted measures, live pig production continued to recover, stocks continued to improve, and the stock of pork increased, and pork prices had a significant impact on the rise of CPI. Weaken.

  According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, pork prices rose by 25.5% year-on-year in September, a sharp drop of 27.1 percentage points from the previous month.

On a month-on-month basis, prices have changed from a 1.2% increase last month to a 1.6% decrease.

  Recently, vegetable prices have increased in some areas.

Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that due to seasonal factors and rainfall in some areas, the price of fresh vegetables continued to rise by 2.4% month-on-month in September, a drop of 4.0% from the previous month.

  The prices of beef and lamb rose by 9.0% and 5.4% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate fell by 5.4 and 4.3 percentage points respectively; the price of fresh fruit fell by 6.9%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 12.9 percentage points; the price of eggs, chicken and duck fell by 17.7%, 9.1% and respectively. 4.7%, the decline expanded by 5.3, 7.5 and 3.8 percentage points respectively.

  "In general, with the full recovery of the economy, price changes continue to return to normal. At present, the disturbance of abnormal factors on prices has been significantly weakened, and the overall stability of price trends has become more and more obvious." Zhang Liqun said.

  Industrial product prices continue to rise

  In terms of industrial product prices, Dong Lijuan said that in September, domestic industrial production and demand recovered steadily, and industrial product prices continued to rise.

  From a month-on-month perspective, PPI rose by 0.1%, of which the prices of means of production rose by 0.2%.

Looking at the 40 industrial sectors surveyed, 15 saw price increases, 19 declined, and 6 remained unchanged.

  Prices rebounded, but the month-on-month increase has declined.

According to Dong Lijuan, affected by the changes in international crude oil prices, the prices of petroleum-related industries have turned from rising to falling. Among them, the prices of petroleum and natural gas extraction industries fell by 2.3%, and the prices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries fell by 0.5%.

  Among other major industries, the price growth of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, which rose by 1.3%, fell by 0.2%; the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, which rose by 0.7%, fell by 2.3%; the agricultural and sideline food processing industry, Increased by 0.2%, down 0.4%.

  "From a year-on-year perspective, the overall PPI decline has continued to narrow in recent months, which indicates that China's policies and measures to expand domestic demand have begun to take effect, echoing the sustained and stable recovery of China's economy." Zhang Liqun said, further consolidating the good momentum of economic recovery, It is necessary to firmly grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, give full play to the counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, and drive corporate investment through government investment and accelerate the recovery of employment and consumption.

  CPI year-on-year growth is expected to continue to stabilize

  How to see the next price trend?

Zhang Liqun believes that the CPI growth rate may still fall slightly in the future, but the trend is generally stable, and the probability of staying below 2% is relatively high.

PPI decline is expected to be further narrowed.

On the whole, from January to September, national consumer prices rose by 3.3% over the same period last year. Looking forward to the whole year, achieving the annual price control target of around 3.5% should not be a big problem.

  Regarding food prices that have received much attention, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that food prices have remained stable on the whole, and a small change is a high probability event.

  Regarding vegetable prices, Meng Wei, deputy director of the Political Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the growth cycle of vegetables is relatively short. With the reduction of extreme weather in the later period, autumn vegetables will be listed one after another. The market supply is expected to recover in a relatively short period of time, and the price of fresh vegetables will follow. Fall back.

  Judging from the latest data, food prices have generally kept falling.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the national market price of edible agricultural products dropped 1.1% from October 5 to 11 compared with the previous week.

Among them, the price of meat mainly fell. The wholesale price of pork was 44.13 yuan per kilogram, down 3.1%, the price of beef fell 0.1%, and the price of mutton rose 0.2%.

The price of poultry products dropped slightly, among which the wholesale prices of eggs and white striped chicken dropped by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively.

The price of aquatic products dropped slightly, among which the wholesale prices of silver carp, hairtail, and crucian fell by 1.9%, 1.8% and 1.4% respectively.

The average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables was 4.74 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2%, and the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits dropped by 1.1%.

  Meng Wei pointed out that from a later point of view, the foundation for the stable operation of my country's prices is still solid. With the gradual recovery of pig production and the significant reduction of tail-lifting factors, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI will continue to stabilize.