Chinanews client, Beijing, October 17th (Peng Jingru Cheng Chunyu and Li Jinlei) Recently, the renminbi has continued to appreciate rapidly, which has attracted attention from all parties.
Will RMB appreciation definitely stimulate the stock market?
Tan Yaling, dean and chief economist of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, said in an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus" recently, "Everyone sees this very clearly. This round of RMB appreciation has not stimulated the Chinese stock market. Still detour within a certain interval."
Tan Yaling said that there is no direct relationship between the appreciation of the renminbi and the stock market, because the exchange rate is a price balance in external relations, while the stock market is a basic manifestation of internal assets and economic fundamentals or corporate development. The two focuses are completely different. .
Tan Yaling, president and chief economist of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face to Face" to analyze the recent sharp appreciation of the RMB.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Xinglong
In the past three quarters, the onshore renminbi rose 3.89% against the US dollar, the largest single-quarter increase since the first quarter of 2008.
After China’s National Day holiday, the foreign exchange market was not calm, and the RMB continued to appreciate rapidly against the US dollar, attracting global attention.
"At present, a large amount of overseas funds are flowing into China, and we need to be alert to the increasing pressure of domestic asset bubbles and prevent related risks." Tan Yaling believes that this round of RMB appreciation started in June and has not yet ended, and the cycle is considered to be relatively long.
From this perspective, the entire international economic and trade relationship, including geopolitics, is still highly targeted and designed between the foreign exchange sector and currency competition.
Tan Yaling said that the renminbi has a gap in the interest rate and exchange rate gap against the US dollar and other currencies. The huge Chinese market itself and the credibility of policies, coupled with economic sustainability, have formed a very good understanding of foreign capital. Capital speculation is inevitable, and China should be more vigilant at this time.
"Because of China's existing financial market structure, mechanism, efficiency, and technology, there are still many shortcomings. The securities market is gradually opening up, and the registration system is also intensively advancing. The international standardization and the accuracy of the market system rules at the institutional and structural levels, In the process of further improvement and strengthening, it is inevitable that there will be some deficiencies."
"China does not have a complete foreign exchange market, it is still an inter-bank foreign exchange market, and overseas markets are completely liberalized markets. Regardless of transaction experience, technology, scale, or influence, China is in a passive state. So prevent relevant Risks are particularly important for the future Chinese economy." Tan Yaling emphasized.