China News Service, Beijing, October 17 (Li Jinlei and Peng Jingru Cheng Chunyu) The continuous rapid appreciation of the renminbi has caused concern.
Some international investment banks predict that the renminbi will appreciate significantly in the next 12 months, and there are many discussions about whether the renminbi has entered a new cycle of appreciation.
In response to this, Tan Yaling, president and chief economist of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, recently responded in an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus". The medium and long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate is currently difficult to judge. Normally, it is possible to return to 7.
Tan Yaling, president and chief economist of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face to Face" to analyze the recent sharp appreciation of the RMB.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Xinglong
There are three reasons why it is difficult to make a conclusion.
First, the US election did not fall.
Second, Sino-US trade is still in an uncertain state.
Third, the results of the epidemic on the Chinese economy and the world economy are uncertain.
Tan Yaling believes that fluctuations in the RMB-USD exchange rate below 6.7 should become the norm, and it is possible to return to 7.
"Because the simplest logic: a big rise will lead to a big fall. The appreciation of the renminbi has not stopped since June, and it is also facing the repair of depreciation. It has to resolve certain risks, and the renminbi may be corrected in the direction of 6.8 and 6.9 devaluation. ."
Since the beginning of this year, in the context of the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on global trade, finance and economy, the cross-border use of the renminbi has remained resilient and has shown growth, but some US politicians have threatened to forcibly cut off the settlement of the renminbi, Hong Kong dollar and US dollar.
In this regard, Tan Yaling believes that such extreme situations are more threatening, but they need to be followed up in the future to improve risk warning.
"For the liquidity of the U.S. dollar, the Hong Kong dollar and the renminbi are both very important support points." Tan Yaling analyzed that the debt scale of the United States has reached 27 trillion U.S. dollars and faces elections, such as cutting off the relationship between the Hong Kong dollar, the renminbi and the U.S. dollar. , It will also have a lot of trouble.
Talking about the recent digital RMB red envelope pilot program launched by the People's Bank of China in Shenzhen, Tan Yaling believes that the advancement of digital currency may be an aid to the internationalization of the RMB, but it cannot replace the internationalization of the RMB.
"The development of digital renminbi must maintain a rhythm and rationality, and the ultimate free convertibility of the renminbi is the fundamental goal of renminbi internationalization." (End)