The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced the latest "World Economic Outlook" on the 13th. It predicts that the world economy will shrink by 4.4% this year, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the forecast in June this year. It is expected that the growth rate will rebound to 5.2%, 0.2% lower than the forecast in June.
The IMF said that the global economy is still in deep recession. The main reason for this increase in the world economic growth rate this year is that the second quarter economic data was better than expected, and there are signs that the third quarter recovery is stronger.
However, this is due to the extraordinary stimulus policy measures. At present, governments and central banks have provided households and businesses with approximately US$12 trillion in financial support, but countries must also prevent the accumulation of medium-term financial risks.
IMF President Georgieva believes that the global economy is recovering from the abyss of crisis, and all countries will now embark on a "long road of climbing". This will be a difficult process, long, bumpy and full of uncertainty. , And it is easy to regress.
The IMF predicts that developed economies will decline by 5.8% this year, of which the US economy will decline by 4.3%, the Eurozone economy will decline by 8.3%, and the UK economy will decline by 9.8%.
The economies of emerging markets and developing countries will decline by 3.3%.
China will be the only country in the world's major economies that maintains positive growth. It is expected to grow by 1.9% this year and 8.2% next year.
The IMF pointed out that “China’s recovery is faster than expected”, stating that after most areas were reopened in early April, economic activity normalized faster than expected. With strong policy support and export flexibility, the second quarter GDP There was unexpectedly positive growth.
At present, the IMF has provided financing to 81 countries, with loan commitments of more than $280 billion to help them tide over the crisis.
The IMF calls on countries to build more resilient economies, which are necessary for a strong and sustainable recovery.
IMF Chief Economist Geeta Gopita said that in order to ensure a sustained economic recovery, it is first necessary to strengthen international cooperation to end the public health crisis of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Wu Lejun