Renmin Lou Shi 丨 "65.4 million vacant houses" is true? Expert: "Housing is not speculation", the property market tends to stabilize
Recently, the news that “there are 65.4 million vacant houses in the country” spread on social platforms and caused widespread discussion.
According to the news, a survey conducted by the State Grid Corporation of China in 660 cities showed that as many as 65.4 million residential units had electric meters reading zero for six consecutive months. Based on the calculation of three households per house, nearly 200 million people can live.
What are the facts?
What is the concept of a vacant house?
The reporter's investigation found that the above-mentioned hot online news was actually an old news in 2010, which was published earlier on the blog of a financial commentator, and the content of the news has been clarified by relevant units.
There are 65.4 million vacant houses nationwide? The media has refuted the rumors
A reporter from People's Daily Online found that the key data involved in the above-mentioned "65.4 million vacant houses" was published earlier on the blog of a financial commentator, and the publication date can be traced back to March 14, 2010.
Currently, the blog account of the financial commentator is closed.
The data mentioned in the news from the survey of power supply companies across the country was also reported to be released by the State Grid.
According to a report by China Business News at the time, the relevant person of State Grid made it clear that such data has never been released, nor has such data been counted.
What is the level of housing vacancy rate in my country? There is no official data
Liu Lin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, said in an interview with a reporter from People's Daily Online, “Currently, my country does not have comprehensive statistics on housing vacancy rates. The National Bureau of Statistics currently publishes data on unsold new houses. This is actually a concept of corporate inventory , And the internationally accepted vacancy rate is different."
According to the internationally accepted definition, the vacancy rate refers to the ratio of the area of vacant houses to the total area of houses at a certain time.
Generally speaking, a commercial housing vacancy rate between 5% and 10% is a reasonable zone, a vacancy rate between 10% and 20% is a vacancy danger zone, and a vacancy rate above 20% is a serious backlog of commercial housing.
Liu Lin believes that the housing vacancy rate is a very important indicator that reflects the stock of housing and analyzes the real estate market. If you want to count accurate housing vacancy rate data, you need to wait for the national housing census or the census with corresponding housing information.
It is worth noting that in 2020, my country started the seventh national census. At present, some residents of Beijing have received notification from the community residents committee.
The market is worried about overheating real estate? "Housing is not speculation" the property market tends to stabilize
Under normal circumstances, the overheating of the real estate market will result in higher vacancy rates.
The hot discussion of this old news on the Internet actually reflects the market's concerns about the real estate bubble to a certain extent.
However, many experts told People's Daily Online that under the current regulation of "housing and housing, not speculation", "stability" is the main theme, and the real estate industry is also developing in a steady and healthy manner.
After reviewing the real estate policies in recent years, "housing to live without speculation" has become the industry's consensus on the policy tone.
According to statistics, in August this year, various real estate control policies were promulgated a total of 32 times across the country in a single month, and the total number of times from January to August was as high as 368 times.
From January to August 2019, the data also reached 367 times.
Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Think Tank Center, believes that the housing vacancy rate data released by some market institutions are exaggerated to a certain extent, but the existence of vacant housing does cause a waste of resources.
For cities with high housing vacancy rates, they need to actively digest inventory in the future, and vacant housing can be digested by vigorously developing the rental market and appropriately curbing land supply.
He pointed out that with the precise implementation of control policies, the real estate "dividend era" is over, and my country's real estate market is gradually moving towards a healthy and stable development.
Wu Xiaoqin