The International Monetary Fund has improved its forecast for the Russian economy for 2020.

According to the organization, the country's GDP will decline by 4.1% instead of the 6.6% expected earlier.

At the same time, in 2021 the economy will recover at a slower pace than predicted - growth will be 2.8% instead of 4.1%.

Such data are contained in the IMF World Economic Outlook report, published on Tuesday, October 13.

Experts interviewed by RT largely attribute the improvement in the forecast for 2020 to the outlined revival of business and consumer activity in the third quarter.

Thus, the economy was supported by the easing of quarantine restrictions, the recovery of oil prices, as well as measures of state assistance to business and the population.

In particular, we are talking about providing credit vacations, direct payments to families with children, soft loans and tax breaks for companies and entrepreneurs.

“State support for the population, impressive volumes of reserves and the rise in oil prices - all this played a role in the fact that the Russian economy did not suffer as much as expected.

The support measures worked very effectively.

Various regulatory initiatives, such as deferred inspections and a moratorium on bankruptcy, also had a positive impact, "Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies, told RT.

As the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov noted earlier, the crisis did not become systemic, and the economic downturn in Russia was concentrated in the small and medium-sized business sector in a limited number of affected industries.

According to the minister, Russia went through a difficult period "better than many other countries."

This state of affairs is partly due to the peculiarities of the structure of the national economy, experts are sure.

“The fact is that small and medium-sized enterprises have been hit hardest by the pandemic.

That is, we are talking about the consumer sector, which in highly developed countries accounts for more than 50% of GDP.

Therefore, the drop in consumer demand has had a very hard impact on the economies of a number of countries.

Our share of this sector is about 20% of GDP, which made it possible to contain the economic downturn.

If in the second quarter the GDP decreased by 8%, then already in the third quarter there was a growth, "Alexey Korenev, an analyst at the Finam Group of Companies, told RT.

According to him, in the context of the second wave of coronavirus, additional measures of state support can accelerate the economic recovery.

First of all, financial assistance must be provided to companies and entrepreneurs, the expert is sure.

“It is very important for the government to correctly assess the situation, provide adequate support and prevent the drowning of those enterprises that managed to stay afloat, retained their personnel and continue to represent the consumer segment of Russia.

This is despite the fact that the authorities, most likely, will no longer introduce the same strict quarantine restrictions as in the spring, "Korenev added.

Low-key optimism

In its report, the IMF also improved its forecast for a decline in the global economy in 2020 from 4.9% to 4.4%.

As early as 2021, global GDP is expected to grow by 5.2%.

“Today the situation looks less bleak.

Our new estimate was that the performance in Q2 and Q3 was slightly better than expected, which slightly improved our global forecast for 2020.

And in 2021, we still forecast a partial and uneven recovery, ”said earlier IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

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Note that since the publication of the previous IMF forecast in June, the number of detected cases of coronavirus infection worldwide has more than quadrupled and today exceeds 37 million. Against this background, the IMF experts warn of the continuing risks for the global economy.

“The virus is reviving, and local quarantine measures are being restored.

If the situation escalates and the prospects for treatment and vaccines deteriorate, the damage to economic activity will be severe and likely to be exacerbated by severe financial market shocks.

Growing trade and investment restrictions, as well as growing geopolitical uncertainty, could damage the recovery process, ”said Gita Gopinath, chief economist at the foundation.

According to the IMF, in 2020 the GDP of developed countries will shrink by 5.8%, while the economies of developing countries will sag by 3.3%.

At the same time, the United States, Canada and European countries risk serious losses, the organization believes.

Thus, experts predict a decline in the GDP of the States by 4.3%, Canada - by 7.1%, and the eurozone - by 8.3%.

“Most likely, the maximum drop in GDP will be noted in developed countries, where the share of small and medium-sized businesses is at a high level.

These are the USA, Italy, Spain, Greece.

It was small and medium-sized businesses that were most affected by the pandemic, since such companies were almost completely under lockdown, and they may also be affected by new restrictions in the fall, ”Michael Ross-Johnson, CEO of the Chatex cryptocurrency neobank, told RT.

According to the IMF forecast, among developing countries, the most serious GDP may sink in India (10.3%), Mexico (9%), South Africa (8%) and Brazil (5.8%).

At the same time, the growth rate of the Chinese economy will remain positive, but will slow down to 1.9% compared to 6.1% in 2019.

“In terms of quantitative indicators, developing economies like Brazil, India or South Africa will suffer the maximum damage, since in addition to the purely epidemic situation and dependence on the demand for resources, international investors are not in too much of a hurry to invest capital here in further economic development,” he said in the conversation with RT Chief Analyst of the TeleTrade Group of Companies Pyotr Pushkarev.

Credit pressure

According to Kristalina Georgieva, in the current environment, the most serious threat to many states is the increase in debt burden.

According to the head of the IMF, in 2020 the world public debt will reach a record high - almost 100% of global GDP.

“Many countries have become more vulnerable.

Their debt levels have risen as a result of the fiscal response to the crisis and the massive cuts in production and revenues, ”Georgieva explained.

According to the American Institute of International Finance (IIF), in the first quarter of 2020, the global national debt reached 90.7% of GDP - about $ 70 trillion.

The highest rates were recorded in Japan (230% of GDP), the USA (106%), the eurozone (101%).

At the same time, Russia has one of the lowest levels of debt burden (14.3% of GDP).

“Against the background of increased budget expenditures, the government assumes that by 2023 Russia's national debt will grow to 21.3% of GDP.

Nevertheless, this is still a small ratio.

Especially if you look at what is happening in other countries, where the national debt exceeds 100% of GDP.

If we compare Russia's reserves and the national debt, we can conclude that in this regard, our situation is one of the most favorable in the world.

Therefore, in the event of a global financial crisis, we have where to draw resources from, ”concluded Alexey Korenev.