Chinanews Client Beijing, October 13th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Earned!
made money!
Earn again!
On the 9th, Muyuan and Wen’s, the two major pig breeding companies in A-shares, announced their third-quarter performance forecasts. Profits were once again “blind”. “Pig in Maotai” Muyuan’s net profit exceeded 100 million yuan a day. This is a small goal for the rich. "It is directly turned into daily KPI (Key Performance Indicator).
Data map: pigs.
Photo by Zhong Xin
"Get rich by raising pigs!"
The former slogan of getting rich has now become a real business.
"Pig in Maotai" Muyuan shares performance forecast shows that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters of this year is expected to be 20.7 billion to 21.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.93 times to 14.29 times.
Focusing on the perspective of the third quarter, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 10 billion to 10.5 billion yuan, an increase of 548.25% to 580.66% year-on-year.
Based on this estimate, in the third quarter, Muyuan had a net profit of 109 million to 114 million yuan a day.
Faced with this gorgeous performance, many netizens commented, "Is it too late to switch to pig farming?"
Regarding the substantial increase in performance in the first three quarters, Muyuan said in an announcement that the company sold 11.881 million live pigs from January to September 2020, an increase of 49.80% over the same period of the previous year.
At the same time, there is still a gap between supply and demand in the domestic live pig market, and the price of live pigs has risen sharply compared with the same period last year.
On the day when Muyuan shares announced its results, Wen's, a large pig farmer, also disclosed its performance forecast, which is slightly inferior in comparison.
In the performance forecast of Wen's shares, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters is expected to be between 8.1 billion yuan and 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.11% to 38.04%.
If you look at the third quarter alone, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies fell 9.69% to 16.07% from the same period last year.
However, the decline in Wen's third-quarter net profit was not due to the decline in pig income.
During the reporting period, due to the tight supply of pork in the national pork market, the price of live pigs rose sharply compared with the same period last year. The average selling price of pigs was 34.68 yuan/kg, up 126.52% year-on-year.
The profit of pig raising business increased, but the profit of Wen's poultry raising business declined.
"Affected by the oversupply of the live poultry market, the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the lower-than-expected recovery of catering consumption, the sales price of live poultry has dropped significantly compared with the same period of the previous year, and the company's feather chicken and feather duck prices have dropped by 22.96% and 31.47% respectively. "Wen's shares said.
It is worth noting that in mid-September, the "chicken price plummet" was on the hot search, and the price of chicks dropped by 45% a year.
The face of the capital market changes when it changes
Although Muyuan shares have great success in performance, they have encountered "Waterloo" in the capital market.
On October 12, Muyuan shares closed up 4.48% to 75.83 yuan.
On the previous 9th, Muyuan shares had fallen by more than 1%, and two large transactions occurred, with a total of 3.1905 million shares traded, with a turnover of 214 million yuan. The sellers of the two transactions were institutional seats.
After sorting out, it is found that Muyuan shares have been frequently reduced or even sold out by institutions recently.
For example, on September 18, Muyuan shares had two major transactions involving 22,441,800 shares, with a total turnover of 1.525 billion yuan, at a discount of 9.77%; on September 29, Muyuan shares had two major transactions involving a total of 2,919,500 shares, with a turnover. 187 million yuan, a discount of 13.62%.
Muyuan shares recently part of the block trade.
Data from ifind straight flush
Muyuan shares, once highly sought after by institutions, may only sigh in the face of this situation, "The face of the capital market changes when it changes."
In fact, institutions have always been "seeing money to make the rudder".
Since July 15th, Muyuan shares have fallen from the highest price of 99.01 yuan in the intraday to today's 75.83 yuan, a drop of more than 23%. During the period, the market value has shrunk by about 77.2 billion yuan.
Data show that Qin Yinglin, the helm of Muyuan shares, directly and indirectly holds 52.81% of the company's shares, which also means that Qin Yinglin's net worth has shrunk by more than 40 billion yuan during the aforementioned period.
According to the latest data of the 2020 Forbes Global Billionaires List, Qin Yinglin is ranked 43 with a fortune of 18.5 billion US dollars, and in August this year, his net worth was still within 30.
Muyuan shares were sold by institutions, and the market value has shrunk. In fact, it is the epitome of the industry in the capital market.
On October 9 alone, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries had a net outflow of 283 million yuan in the entire day. Among the net outflows, there were 6 stocks with net outflows of more than 50 million yuan, namely Muyuan, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, and Tian Bang, Tianshan Biological, Wen's Co., Ltd., except for Tianshan Biological, the others are pig breeding companies.
As of October 9, since September, 20 of the 21 stocks in the animal husbandry sector have fallen more than 10%, and 18 stocks have fallen more than 15%.
Eleven stocks, including Zhengbang Technology, New Hope, Wen's shares, and Tangrenshen, fell more than 20%.
The pig cycle reaches the top? Is the price of pigs going to fall?
"Pig in Maotai" earned more than 100 million yuan a day, but it suffered a sell-off in the stock market. This starts with the market's controversial pig cycle.
Since the beginning of this year, the production capacity of live pigs has continued to increase.
On October 10, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national live pig production recovery video scheduling promotion meeting and pointed out that up to now, the national live pig and reproductive sow stocks have returned to the level of more than 80% of normal years, and the proportion of large-scale pig breeding has increased to 53%.
Data map: Changsha citizens buy pork in supermarkets.
Photo by Lu Yi
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in September, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market (the average wholesale price of white striped meat) was 47.38 yuan/kg, down 2.1% month-on-month and up 31.9% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase was significantly reduced.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, from October 1st to 8th, pork prices dropped 1.0% from the week before the holiday (September 24th to September 30th).
A reporter from Chinanews.com visited many markets and supermarkets in Beijing and observed that pork prices have dropped slightly compared to the previous period.
"The prices of pork belly and other parts have indeed fallen slightly." The supermarket staff said.
Faced with the accelerated recovery of pig production capacity and the decline in pork prices, many people believe that this round of pig cycle has reached its peak.
"The'pig cycle' has entered a downward channel, and pork prices have peaked and fallen." said Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities. On the one hand, the stock of live pigs and reproductive sows continued to rise steadily; on the other hand, the demand for pork has been rising. It has rebounded, but it is difficult to be stronger than the same period last year.
"Under the stimulus of sustained ultra-high earnings, the production capacity of live pigs will surely rise rapidly, and the downward cycle of the cycle has been established and will continue until at least 2022." Huaxi Securities analyst Zhou Sha believes.
Data map: Farmers care for piglets.
Photo by Han Zhangyun
Tang Renshen’s chairman Tao Yishan’s remarks aroused heated discussions, “As the new wave of pig cycle starts, pig production capacity will face surplus. Big pig farmers in the pen have already predicted that by 2022, domestic meat prices will fall to 10 yuan. . I’m even more pessimistic. By then, the price of meat will fall to 4-5 yuan.”
However, Zhang Minggui, the president of New Hope, responded that the breeding cost of the pig industry in China has risen sharply. From the perspective of the whole industry, once the pig price drops below 20 yuan, or even a little lower, it will fall below most of the breeding cost line. Most of the enterprises and farmers that expand production will choose to wait and see or clear out, and it is impossible to continue to fall to the level of 4 to 5 yuan.
According to data from the China Feed Industry Association, in August this year, the year-on-year growth of pig feed continued to expand, with sow feed, piglet feed and fattening pig feed all expanding significantly.
At the same time, the increase in demand also drives up prices. The price of compound feed generally rose in August, with compound feed for fattening pigs rising by 1.2% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year.
"The production capacity of the pig industry is still slowly recovering, but there is still a gap in the industry's capacity compared to before the African swine fever. Now with the gradual recovery of the industry's production capacity, the overall pig price should gradually fall, but it is expected that the decline in the pig price in the fourth quarter will not be particularly Big.” Muyuan said in an institutional survey on September 17 that the price of pigs in 2021 should be lower than this year. According to historical conditions, the price of pigs should still be at a relatively high level.
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"Regardless of the future, this year's pig farming companies have made real profits!" Some netizens commented, "But for the people, what they look forward to most is the '10 yuan pork'."
How much is the pork you bought recently?
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