The star card skyrocketed one hundred times a year, is it sentiment-driven or a "leek" carnival?
Gu Jia, a senior in high school this year, is an NBA fan. A year ago, he bought a rookie card with a silver discount from American NBA star Luka Doni for 200 yuan.
In June of this year, Gu Jia discovered that the price of this star card had soared to 7,000 yuan. He put the card on the online auction. Unexpectedly, the price went up again and again, and finally sold for 10,000 yuan.
Recently, the price of this card has doubled to 20,000 yuan.
In one year, the price of the star card has increased a hundredfold.
Since the beginning of this year, at a time when the new crown pneumonia epidemic is raging and the global economy is in recession, star cards have unexpectedly become popular, with prices rising steadily, and some heavyweight star cards have been sold at "sky prices" in foreign markets.
Why is a 6.3×8.85 cm paper card so valuable?
What kind of temptation and danger are hidden in the star card arena?
Hot star card
Seven years ago, Lin Xingfei, who had just graduated from university, came into contact with star cards through a basketball magazine. He was a basketball fan himself and bought star cards through Tieba, Taobao and other channels, and began to "get into the pit".
Today, he has hundreds of collections.
"The SKU (standard product unit) of a star card is a bag or a box, just like a blind box. Before you unpack and unpack, you don’t know what card you can take out. You never know what the next chocolate is. The taste, so it has always been attracted." Senior star card player Lin Xingfei told CBN.
Card fans can remove the card through offline card shops and QQ group live broadcasts.
The QQ group is also a place for them to open cards, trade cards, and exchange information.
When a reporter from China Business News entered the "Star Card" search group in QQ, they found that there were more than 200 related groups, of which one or two thousand were the larger ones.
Gu Jia also joined several QQ groups. He noticed that more than a year, new card fans have been joining the group.
He exchanges information with card friends in the group, collects information and market evaluations of favorite players, and does technical analysis and prediction of the game progress.
He believes that the exchange between card fans is very important to the valuation of the star card, and full communication allows you to grasp the market information as much as possible.
CBN reporters saw in the star card QQ group that the card fans are very active in communication, with people constantly sending out card information, card receiving information, and card dismantling information.
In the process of card removal in the group, the group owner will bring a box of products, issue a board notice, mark the number of participants and the fee, and start to call the group in the group, the group members sign up, and the card will be removed on the site after the group is successfully formed , The process of dismantling the card will be @ all members to watch the battle, and live broadcast in the group, whoever is lucky will get a good card.
What Lin Xingfei and Gu Jia didn't expect was that star cards that integrate blind box, sports, collection, and circulation attributes would see a surge in market prices, especially during the global epidemic.
Recently, Giannis Antetokounmpo (Giannis Antetokounmpo), who played for the NBA Milwaukee Bucks’ star card, sold a price of $1.812 million, breaking the Los Angeles Lakers star in mid-July. Lebron James (Lebron James) rookie card transaction record of 1.8 million US dollars, creating a new auction record in the history of basketball star card.
And so far, the record for the most expensive star card is still held in the hands of MLB Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout. His rookie discounts were signed in August this year. The auction sold for 3.94 million US dollars.
According to US media reports, according to eBay statistics, the sales of 3~5 moon star cards are 92% higher than the last quarter of 2019. Basketball cards have become the most popular category, with sales rising 130%.
"The James rookie card that sold $1.8 million was rated at only 9.5 by professional institutions. The card with the 10th level is numbered 23, which is also the number of the James jersey. This means that if the collector of the 23rd card is willing to put it In the auction market, the price will definitely be higher." Industry insider Lao Luo told the CBN reporter.
With the popularity of the secondary card trading market, the price of the original box has also risen.
The issuer Panini’s previous three- to four-thousand yuan box has risen to seven to eight thousand yuan this year. Panini’s high-end series "National Treasure" series (national treasure series) star cards cost 100,000 yuan per box. There are five boxes of cards.
Why did the star card heat up during the epidemic?
Yang Yi, who has many years of experience in sports collections, believes that the main reason is that a large number of people were forced to stay at home during the epidemic. Sports collectors and enthusiasts are no exception. The suspension of major sports events has led to extreme losses in sports TV programs and the gaming industry. In this case, those with disposable funds on hand began to choose the entertainment collection of star cards, which are both specific education and gambling elements, as their pastime. The influx of a large number of such people has pushed up the popularity of the star card market.
"Star cards are very similar to the resale market of art, rare coins, and sneakers. They all rely on visual appeal, collection value and scarcity to establish a market." Yang Yi said.
Lin Xingfei believes that compared to sneakers, the number of star cards issued is limited, and star cards with star signatures and real matches will make people feel closer to idols, with collection value and investment potential.
"The star card is a limited collection of sports peripherals just like the sneakers. Like the blind box, there is uncertainty and the attraction of being small. But a major feature of the star card is that its IP is the player itself, representing sports culture. And the appreciation space is closely linked to the development of players." Lin Xingfei thinks.
The initial domestic market
In the United States, where the sports industry is developed, the star card has a history of 120 years.
The earliest star card appeared in the 19th century. A tobacco company in the United States introduced the star card, which was included in the cigarette case, which greatly boosted the sales of the brand's cigarettes.
Later, a company called Topps discovered a business opportunity and began to specialize in the production of star cards.
Star cards are divided into regular cards, special cards, limited cards, jersey cards, Patch cards (physical cut cards), refraction cards, precious metal cards, rookie cards, etc.
The jersey card means that the publisher signs a contract with the star, buys the star’s jersey, cuts out a small part of the jersey, and pastes it on the card. After being certified by a lawyer, it is completed.
The Patch card is richer in color than the jersey card. It usually has tailored threads and patterns that are cut to the jersey. With the improvement of production technology, the sneakers, towels, hats, suits, or ball games used by the stars The floors, seats, basketballs, etc. used in the game are all made into physical cards. The more colors of physical cards, the more valuable they are.
Star cards are issued according to products and themes, and are closely related to leagues and clubs. The issued series are positioned at high, middle and low grades. The entry series may cost several hundred yuan a box, the mid-end series several thousand yuan a box, and the high-end card cost tens of thousands of yuan a box. yuan.
Limitation, appearance, potential of the star, and the story behind it are all factors that affect the value of a star card, and the development of a player is a fundamental factor that affects the valuation of a star card.
At present, the star card has evolved into an important category of sports collections.
For "non-card fans", the star card can be simply understood as the Water Margin hero card by eating the little raccoon in childhood, but the design of the star card is more exquisite, and the issuing channels and trading methods are more complicated.
In recent years, the promotion of star cards and goods-carrying activities in the domestic market have also become active.
First, foreign publishers turned their attention to China. Panini, one of the three largest foreign publishers, began to test the Chinese market last year and opened its own official account, Weibo, and Tmall flagship store.
"Many inspiring cultural celebrities in the United States have posted their own collection of star cards on their social media. In China, big Vs in many fields are also supplying star cards, such as during the commentary process of sports events. , Tencent Sports’ NBA commentator Ke Fan himself is a card fan. He introduced the star card many times during the commentary process." Yang Yi told China Business News that before, the star card has hardly been promoted in China. In recent years, the domestic agent Businesses are also promoting through different channels.
Some relatively well-known senior players play a certain guiding role in the market trend of star cards.
In addition to foreign publishers, there are also domestic distributors targeting domestic athletes.
China Sports Card Industry (Beijing) Sports Culture Industry Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Sports Card Industry") and Shanghai Daka Culture Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Shanghai Daka") are the official agents of the two star cards, 2018 In September 2009, China Sports Card Industry officially launched the first year series of official Chinese Super League star cards, which opened the era of domestic star card issuance.
At present, China Sports Card Industry is the exclusive partner of the official star card of the China Team, the Chinese Super League, and the CBA League. At the same time, it has also obtained the official authorization of Guangzhou Evergrande Taobao, Guangzhou R&F and other domestic football clubs; Shanghai Daka won Beijing Official authorization from clubs such as Zhonghe Guoan, Shanghai Greenland Shenhua, and Dalian Ren.
In the process of issuance of star cards, copyright is the core issue. Distributors need to sign agreements with clubs and players to issue star cards. Sports copyright fees are very high. The threshold for entering the star card issuing industry is very high, so the number of issuers in this field Rarely.
The person in charge of TCUp, the Internet project of China Sports Card Industry, told the reporter of China Business News, "The production and issuance process of the star card is very complicated. It is necessary to sign the club and the association. Some of the bigger players may be individual players. Distributors need to pay high copyright fees, and the cost of distribution is very high. This is why many companies want to do it but dare not do it."
Fanhua told CBN reporters that more than 90% of the online transactions of domestic star cards are conducted on the "TCUp" APP. From the platform operation data in the past year, it can be seen that the current domestic star card market is in the primary and explosive stage. The price shows a doubling trend.
"In May, a 10-piece gold lottery signed by football player Zheng Zhi sold for 6,000 yuan. By September, the same version of Zheng Zhi’s signature card on the platform was already on sale at a price of more than 10,000 yuan. The more popular domestic cards like Wu Lei are also available. It has been sold to tens of thousands. From the downloads and daily activities of TCUp users can also see that the number of card charms has increased rapidly, and more and more newcomers have joined the industry." Fanhua said.
Although the domestic star card is obviously becoming popular, Yang Yihe and Fanhua believe that the star card is still in its infancy in China. Compared with the domestic, the star card has a much larger audience abroad and cannot be regarded as a niche hobby.
Although there are currently no authoritative statistics on the size of the star card market at home and abroad, they estimate that there are about 50,000 to 60,000 card fans in China. Even if there is an increase during the epidemic, it will not exceed 100,000. The card market has more than 10 million players.
Lin Xingfei also feels the changes in the domestic market. "Compared with the past, there are many more channels now, such as physical card stores under wired network, various star card stores on Taobao and Tmall, Hupu, TCUp, Katao, Ouzang, etc. Various apps can also trade star cards. Of course, eBay is still the most important trading platform for star cards in the world."
Be careful of being "cut leek"
Just as a stock will increase its stock price after it releases a strong earnings report, when a player has a super performance, such as the MVP (Most Valuable Player) of the basketball game, the Golden Globe Award in the football field, the card price will also Will soar accordingly.
However, there is no lack of hype in the star card market.
Yang Yi told CBN reporters that the death of legendary star Kobe in January this year directly led to a nearly 6-fold increase in the sales of his star card; since the ESPN (entertainment sports network) documentary "TheLastDance" was released in April, Jordan's card price experienced another experience. Soaring.
In Lao Luo's view, the general skyrocketing of star card prices in recent months is not a natural increase formed by a shortage of supply, but the result of artificial speculation.
He analyzed that the operation method of this price increase may be that high-end players at home and abroad entered the game, and after monopolizing the card collection at low prices, the cards were auctioned on eBay, and the price was constantly raised, and the card was actually in him. In their own hands.
After the card is traded, a trade record will be generated. Then the price of the next card of the same type cannot be lowered, and the market value of other cards of the star will also be driven to rise.
Luo believes that the hype behavior is basically aimed at some rare and good cards, such as Jordan, James and other legendary players with signed refraction cards, and basketball rookie cards are also often included in the hype.
There is no hype in Puka.
"But if the market can be heated up by the rare Teka, it will bring more customers to the publisher, which is what the publisher most hopes to see." Lao Luo said.
In such a market environment, if an inexperienced "little white" card fan blindly enters the market, the fate of it is likely to be "cut leeks."
Yang Yi observed that the domestic card-playing groups are mainly sports collectors, most of whom are fans, and there are some two-dimensional animation fans. The overall age group is younger, and there is a tendency to gradually penetrate into the lower age group.
In Gu Jia's circle, the players who play cards are all students, and classmates influence each other, especially young people who like to play basketball, it is easy to be brought in.
Their ability to pay is not strong, and they often use their own living expenses and new year's money to buy cards.
Gu Jia spent a total of several thousand yuan on buying cards. "Brother Alphabet" is his key collection object, but when the market price of the cards rose up, Gu Jia didn't dare to catch up and buy some cards.
Luo also reminded, "Not all cards in all series will be so strong all the time. There will be some series with low market acceptance or excessive hype, and prices will collapse. So the choice of collection is very important. It depends on the individual. Don’t blindly rush, do what you can, keep the original intention of playing cards, the nature of love and the happiness brought by small cards are sometimes far greater than the value of the card itself."
As far as Lin Xingfei's personal collection experience is concerned, he believes that the star card market is a market where bubbles and cabbage prices coexist.
Although the price of star cards is rising and China has a fan base, star cards are still a niche hobby, and it is not easy to make star cards bigger.
"Whether investment can make money is luck, second, financial strength, and third, vision. There are many uncontrollable factors in investing in star cards. It is very difficult for ordinary card fans to speculate successfully."
"The card with several million yuan is a small probability event. The top good card may only be one in the world. It has a certain contingency and has no reference value. How the card is priced depends on the needs of the card fans. Playing cards must have a correct attitude. , You can’t blindly follow the trend, you have to do your own research, form your own judgment, and adjust the judgment based on market feedback. In the end, you will form your own collection system.” Lin Xingfei said.
Compared with investment and speculation, he believes that cards carry more feelings.
"It's like collecting Water Margin cards when I was a child, which represents a kind of youthful memory. The star cards are like a handicraft. Looking back at the collection of these star cards after many years, there will be a sense of history. Card fans will also form through the star cards. In a small circle, I know some like-minded friends, which is more important to me."
(At the request of the interviewee, Gu Jia, Yang Yi, Lin Xingfei, and Lao Luo are pseudonyms)
Author: Sun Weiwei