Returning youth: Housing prices in the provincial capital are falling. Why do my small county towns keep rising?

　　Data map photo by Xue Yufei

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client October 9th (Xue Yufei) Before the National Day, a leading real estate company located in the airport area of ​​Zhengzhou City, Henan Province launched a housing subsidy policy, with general undergraduate, adult undergraduate, online education and other nationally recognized Individuals with a national higher education certificate can enjoy a housing subsidy of 100,000 yuan from the developer for their first home purchase.

A local real estate agent told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that this property wanted to take advantage of the holiday to offer some discounts, but if the price was directly reduced, the old customers would definitely be dissatisfied and could only take this disguised measure.

　　As a national central city under construction, Zhengzhou's housing prices have been rising in the past few years, but have been somewhat weak in the past year or two. Developers have resorted to various discounts and promotions.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in August this year, the price of new houses in Zhengzhou dropped by 0.4% compared with the same period last year, and the price of second-hand houses dropped by 4.4%.

According to the Zhengzhou Municipal Housing Management Bureau, the average transaction prices of commercial and second-hand residential buildings in Zhengzhou in August were RMB 12,119 per square meter and RMB 10,602 per square meter.

　　In Huaxian County, Anyang City, more than 140 kilometers away from Zhengzhou City, Ma Zhou (a pseudonym), who was eager to buy a house, found that housing prices here have been rising for several years and there is no trend of price reductions.

Ma Zhou said: "I heard that prices in many big cities are going down. Why do small places like ours keep rising?"

"Why does our small place keep rising?"

　　Ma Zhou has passed 30 years old this year. Because his parents divorced at an early age and his father was unconcerned, he has not married yet.

In recent years, it has become popular in rural areas to buy houses in county towns. Ma Zhou's Tang and cousins ​​bought the wedding house when they got married. This gave him the idea of ​​buying a house.

　　Ma Zhou worked as a carpenter in a prefecture-level city near his hometown. Some friends persuaded him to stay and buy there. However, because the local price was high, and secondly, he felt that his relatives were at home, so he decided to return to the county to buy a house.

Ma Zhou had seen a few houses in the county a few years ago, but did not buy it at the time. When he returned to the county to inspect the house in 2020, he found that the price here was much higher than before.

　　Guo Xin (pseudonym) is a real estate consultant for a real estate in Huaxian County. She introduced to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that

　　“Hua County reacted very slowly. It only rose here after other cities rose. The largest increase was in 2017 and 2018. The average price increased by 1,000 yuan per square meter. There was no price increase in 2019 and 2020. It’s so big, but it’s still going up a little bit.” The developer of Guo Xin’s real estate is Henan Jianye, the largest real estate developer in Henan. She said that Jianye’s first project in Huaxian was originally priced at more than 3,000 yuan/ The square meter continued to rise. The current project on sale has improved the quality of the first real estate. The price of the first-phase small high-rise residential building is about 5500 yuan/square meter, and the bungalow is more expensive.

This is not the most expensive house in the county.

Guo Xin said that the current house prices in county towns are mostly between 4500 yuan/sqm and 6000 yuan/sqm, and some well-positioned houses sell for more than 6000 yuan/sqm.

Working locally for many years, Liu Yongfei, manager of the sales department of a developer, said that the real estate for sale in the county town ranges from four to five thousand yuan to seven thousand to eight thousand or more than ten thousand yuan. The price varies greatly, and the average price should be 5,000 yuan. In general, the price has continued to rise in recent years.

　　After making a round of real estate in the county town, Ma Zhou regretted that he had not made up his mind to buy in the first place. Now the down payment and monthly repayment amount have increased a lot.

As the property consultant claimed to increase the price, in early September this year, Ma Zhou hurriedly bought a set of just-needed properties with an average price of about 4,500 yuan/square meter.

　　Taking into account age and loan interest, he chose to take a loan for 20 years, with a monthly repayment of 2,700 yuan. Although the repayment is not a problem, there is still a lot of financial pressure if he wants to get married.

He said: "I don't understand it. I heard that prices in many big cities are going down. Why do small places like ours keep rising?"

The credit of the mother-in-law?

　　Data map sand table in the new latitude and longitude Xue Yufei

　　Ma Zhou's idea of ​​buying a house is very simple-just to please his wife.

He said to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client: "The conditions in my house are not good, and I look unpleasant. With this house, it might be better to find a wife."

　　In the past, people who bought houses in cities were mostly people with stable jobs and long-term settlements. Now, housing in county towns or higher-level cities has become an important bargaining chip for some rural boy families when discussing marriage.

The family conditions of Dong Wei (pseudonym) in Huaxian County are much better than those of Ma Zhou. Although the two-story house has already been built and a new car has been purchased, before the marriage is finalized, the price is 6,800 yuan per square meter in Puyang City, Henan Province. Buy a new house at the price of

He said that now many people of the same age are buying houses outside, although the burden will be a bit heavier, but considering marriage and future work, he decided to buy.

According to Liu Yongfei's observation, more and more rural families are buying houses in the county towns. Marriage and children's education are the two main factors, which promote the sales and prices of local commercial housing.

The Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client has also noticed that in recent years, a large number of rural primary and secondary school students have migrated to the county, and many schools in the county have expanded their enrollment to meet the increase of school-age children.

　　Liu Yongfei said that Huaxian is densely populated, with a total population of nearly 1.5 million, while the county’s permanent population is only a few hundred thousand. The large population base also promotes the real estate market to a certain extent.

According to the "Henan Statistical Yearbook 2019", from 2016 to 2018, the urban permanent residents of Huaxian County were 320,000, 330,000, and 350,000, respectively.

　　In terms of income, according to statistics from the Henan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in 2018, the average annual salary of non-private employees in urban non-private units in Henan Province was 63,174 yuan (equivalent to 5,265 yuan per month), of which Zhengzhou was 79,414 yuan (equivalent to 6618 yuan/month), Huaxian’s 52637 yuan (converted to 4386 yuan/month); in 2018, the average salary of employees in urban private units in the province was 40,209 yuan (converted to 3351 yuan/month), of which Zhengzhou’s 49488 Yuan (the equivalent of 4124 yuan / month), Anyang City is 36369 yuan (the equivalent of 3031 yuan / month) (Note: Huaxian data is not currently available).

　　In addition to the above factors, small and medium-sized cities have also undertaken the overflowing demand from large cities.

　　Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that according to the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cities with larger current price increases are basically not first- and second-tier core cities. It is a third- and fourth-tier city.

Third-tier, fourth-tier cities and even lower-tier cities have lower housing prices, and growth on a lower base is normal.

Are there opportunities for small and medium-sized cities?

New latitude and longitude in the data map

　　In some views, cities of the third and fourth tiers and even lower levels seem to be regarded as investment forbidden places. The low profit of developers and the trapped buyers have become the labels of such cities. Hegang Hegang, Heilongjiang, has been hotly discussed before as "cabbage". Housing prices are an example.

　　Although housing prices have risen for several years, Liu Yongfei is still optimistic about the future market in the county. He believes that there is still an influx of people and the continuous expansion of urban area will support prices to continue to rise.

Guo Xin said that the price correction in Zhengzhou is a correction after the big rise. Huaxian is in the stage of compensating for the increase and has not yet reached its peak.

What boosted the confidence of the local market is the successive entry of several large real estate companies in the province. Today, Jianye, Zhengshang, and Kangqiao have acquired land here.

Zhengshang Industry announced in July this year that a residential land of about 55,720.26 square meters in Shanshan County was taken at a total price of about 201 million yuan. According to calculations, the floor price was about 1,800 yuan per square meter.

Liu Yongfei analyzed that based on the land price and location, the price of Zhengshang’s project may be around 6,500 yuan per square meter.

　　Looking across the country, there are many large-scale real estate companies that have taken root in third- and fourth-tier cities.

Country Garden, which started from third- and fourth-tier cities, is still optimistic about the prospects of these cities. As of the first half of this year, according to the location of the project, Country Garden's sales ratio in first- and second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities is 39:61.

Xie Yifeng, Dean of China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, said that it is no longer appropriate to determine investment strategies simply by distinguishing first- and second-tier cities from third- and fourth-tier cities. At present, more depends on the region and city group. With strong development momentum, small and medium-sized cities within the circle will still have investment value.

China's urbanization process has not yet been completed. A large number of people who are not able to buy houses in core cities will choose to enter small and medium cities with development potential. This group of people supports the housing prices of small and medium cities.

　　Xu Xiaole pointed out that with regard to housing price increases, we must treat them differently, and we cannot evaluate the health of housing prices in a city based on the magnitude of the increase.

The rise in housing prices in many counties in China may be the effect of phases and sector rotation. As for whether it has a long-term nature, it still depends on local population inflows and residents' income growth.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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