(Economic Observation) "Energy Revolution" in China's Low-Carbon Development
China News Agency, Beijing, October 8 (Reporter Ruan Yulin) In the process of "reducing coal" and "decarbonizing" traditional energy in China, clean energy such as wind and solar power is emerging strongly, and China's economic growth mode is shifting to green and low carbon. It is driving an energy revolution.
The industry predicts that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the "competition" between China's renewable energy and traditional energy will usher in an inflection point.
As the world's largest energy producer and consumer, energy development provides a solid foundation for China's economic and social development and improvement of people's livelihood.
However, accelerating the construction of China's ecological civilization, drastically reducing the discharge of various pollutants, effectively preventing water, soil, and air pollution, and significantly improving the quality of the ecological environment, all require the green and harmonious development of energy and the environment.
On September 22, 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the General Debate of the Seventy-fifth United Nations General Assembly. He pointed out that China will increase its national independent contribution, adopt more powerful policies and measures, and strive to achieve carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. It will reach its peak before 2060 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Official data show that since the 13th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China is gradually increasing.
In 2019, China's non-fossil energy accounted for 15.3% of primary energy consumption, non-fossil energy power generation capacity accounted for 42%, and non-fossil energy power generation accounted for 32.7%.
He Jiankun, deputy director of the National Committee of Experts on Climate Change and dean of Tsinghua University’s Low Carbon Economy Research Institute, told reporters a few days ago that China’s non-fossil energy power generation now accounts for about 32% of the entire power generation, and by 2030, non-fossil energy power generation Will reach 45%-50%; after 2035, the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation will exceed that of fossil energy.
By 2050, China will be close to achieving carbon neutrality, so the proportion of non-fossil energy generation will reach about 90%, and the power system will be based on non-fossil energy.
Industry insiders believe that in order to reduce carbon emissions, optimize the environment and achieve temperature control goals, "decarbonization" will become an effective path for China's energy revolution.
Non-fossil energy will become the main body of energy increase during the 14th Five-Year Plan.
He Jiankun pointed out that China is still in the development stage of industrialization and urbanization. With the development of economy and society, energy consumption will continue to increase.
The current energy structure is dominated by fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Therefore, the increase in energy consumption means that carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow.
To achieve China's goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions in 2030, new energy demand must be met mainly by renewable and new energy sources.
Speeding up the energy revolution is a complex system project that faces practical difficulties and challenges.
The energy supply of hydropower, solar energy and wind energy is affected by natural conditions such as sunshine, weather, and seasons. Whether it can be connected to the grid stably to provide sufficient, stable and lasting safe power supply has become the key to whether it can replace traditional energy.
He Jiankun said frankly that China will reach its peak of carbon by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It will only take a short period of 30 years. It will take a shorter time than developed countries to achieve the peak of carbon to carbon neutrality. China's annual carbon emission decline rate and reduction efforts are much greater than that of developed countries.
He Jiankun said that a large number of renewable energy sources have brought challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power grid.
Therefore, it is necessary to solve the daily peak and valley peak shaving of new energy power supply such as wind and solar energy, as well as seasonal peak shaving. To develop a smart Internet, it is necessary to strengthen the application of hydrogen energy, energy storage and other technical means.
Energy storage is a necessary condition for renewable energy to become mainstream.
And this storage must be reliable enough, otherwise it cannot replace the current continuous power supply that only fossil fuels and nuclear energy can provide.
"Currently, there are technical means such as hydrogen energy and energy storage, but it takes a development process to systematically solve technical obstacles and reduce costs," He Jiankun said.
Li Jun, vice president of the Economic and Technological Research Institute of the Global Energy Internet Development Cooperation Organization, expects that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's energy transition will enter a phase of incremental substitution, with coal power "on the brakes" and clean energy "on the accelerator."
From 2025 to 2035, the energy transition will enter the stage of stock substitution, coal power will accelerate the withdrawal, and clean energy and electric energy will become the largest energy sources on the production and consumption sides, respectively.
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